Re-Drafting the 2023 Reserve Draft: Yamamoto Edges Out Chourio, Sasaki

The 2023 Reserve Draft has a chance to go down as one of the most loaded Classes in RDBL History with several prospects already set to hit Active Rosters across the league to start 2024.  The overall upside of the class stands out most with three true potential aces (Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Paul Skenes, Roki Sasaki) and several 65+ overall grade potential hitters (Jackson Chourio, Wyatt Langford, Junior Caminero) among the elite prospects selected.

While the Reserve Draft certainly had some valuable big leaguers selected that would clearly go in the Top-15 (Justin Steele, Kyle Bradish, Eduardo Rodriguez), we stuck purely with prospects for this exercise to keep all of the assets on a level playing field.

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1. St. Joseph Jokers

Re-Draft Pick: RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Japan), Originally 16th Overall to Goutfish

Actual Pick: RHP Roki Sasaki (Japan)

The St. Joseph Jokers kicked off the 2024 Reserve Draft with a Japanese right-hander.  It just might have been the wrong one.  While Roki Sasaki’s sky high ceiling remains, it comes with an ETA of 2026 which opens the door for further potential delays given the injury rate of +100mph arms.  That lofts fellow right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the top spot with the ability to step in immediately on Opening Day of 2024 with 400+ point potential on an annual basis.  Yamamoto was handed the largest deal for a pitcher in Major League History, receiving $325M from the Los Angeles Dodgers.

2. Nashville Aristocrats

Re-Draft Pick: OF Jackson Chourio (MIL), Originally 2nd Overall to ‘Crats

Actual Pick: OF Jackson Chourio (MIL)

The Nashville Aristocrats entered the Reserve Draft with two players clearly at the top of their list, just waiting to see if the St. Joseph Jokers would select Roki Sasaki or Jackson Chourio with the top selection.  Chourio was the selection and almost 12 months later, nothing has changed as the outfielder just inked a historic 8-year pact with the Milwaukee Brewers despite not appearing above Double-A.  Chourio looks set to make the Brewers Opening Day and could be in play for the ‘Crats as an Activation option.

3. Mission Viejo Maulers

Re-Draft Pick: OF Wyatt Langford (TEX), Originally 18th Overall by Ducks

Actual Pick: OF James Wood (WSH)

While out of contention for one of the clear cut top two prospects available, the Mission Viejo Maulers elected for a high-upside outfielder in James Wood.  A year later, a new high upside outfielder has taken the throne as Wyatt Langford continues his meteoric rise into one of the game’s best prospects.  Langford enters 2024 with a chance to break camp on the big league club making him one of the most valuable picks in the 2023 Reserve Draft by GM Ryan Walsh.

4. Lunatic Fringe

Re-Draft Pick: OF Evan Carter (TEX), Originally 8th Overall by Taters

Actual Pick: SS Jackson Merrill (SD)

While Jackson Merrill was hardly a miss for Lunatic Fringe GM Tony Guglielmi, outfielder Evan Carter’s ascension, especially in the 2023 Playoffs, gives him the edge to go fourth overall.  Carter brings an ideal skillset for the RDBL with elite control of the strike zone, offering an elite floor that should provide plus OBP, steals and average which he pairs with emerging power.

5. Asti Grape Stompers

Re-Draft Pick: 3B Junior Caminero (TB), Originally 53rd Overall by Taters

Actual Pick: C Ethan Salas (SD)

When Ethan Salas went off the board fifth overall to the Asti Grape Stompers, you could see the disappointment across the faces of other RDBL Executives who hoped to select the catching phenom.  He’s done little to dim that star, but based on pure upside, Junior Caminero might be unmatched among hitters still under a Minor League contract.  With massive power and a potential 70 grade hit tool, Caminero’s future looks bright with a potential Opening Day role in Tampa Bay.

6. Mission Viejo Maulers

Re-Draft Pick: RHP Tanner Bibee (CLE), Originally 33rd Overall by Heads

Actual Pick: OF Sal Frelick (MIL)

While Skenes, Yamamoto and Sasaki grab the headlines, Tanner Bibee already went from 2023 Reserve Draft pick to activation for the Honolulu Hammerheads with a chance to headline their rotation in his second year.  With a strong four pitch mix, Bibee carried an elite 2.98 ERA in 142 IP last season and will look to build on that in 2024 with 400+ point potential in each of the next two years.

7. Burlingame Blue Ducks

Re-Draft Pick: RHP Paul Skenes (PIT), Originally 7th Overall by Ducks

Actual Pick: RHP Paul Skenes (PIT)

Burlingame Blue Ducks GM Ryan Walsh has nailed each of his past two Drafts with Paul Skenes holding the potential of the best pick in Franchise History.  Few pitching prospects possess true ace upside like Skenes.  Walsh certainly hoped the right-hander would end up in a more well regarded organization than the Pirates, but with a likely activation of 2025, he should cash in plenty of points to make this a memorable pick for the Ducks.

8. Idaho Taters (Oppo Tacos)

Re-Draft Pick: RHP Roki Sasaki (Japan), Originally 1st Overall by Jokers

Actual Pick: OF Evan Carter (TEX)

The top overall pick in the 2023 Reserve Draft falls to 8th Overall, but that hardly is a hit on Sasaki’s overall ceiling.  The right-hander still possesses the ability to emerge as the most productive pick of the Draft, it just comes with an uncertain ETA that could be pushed to 2026 with the Japanese League posting rules.  Whenever he is posted, expect a bidding process similar to that of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. 

9. St. Joseph Jokers

Re-Draft Pick: RHP Bryce Miller (SEA), Originally 79th Overall by Goutfish

Actual Pick: C Endy Rodriguez (PIT)

Despite a 4.32 ERA in his Rookie campaign, there was plenty to like from Bryce Miller’s debut in 2023.  Activated in 2023 by the Lake Merced Goutfish before being deal to the Nashville Aristocrats, Miller walks into 2024 carrying a 400+ point projection from CBS with a chance to headline the ‘Crats rotation for the next two seasons.

10. Meinert Hops

Re-Draft Pick: 2B Edouard Julien (MIN), Originally 46th Overall by Falcons

Actual Pick: RHP Chase Dollander (COL)

Julien's Rookie debut went exceptionally well in Minnesota, ranking 5th in OPS (.840) among second basemen with at least 250 at-bats, ahead of the likes of Marcus Semien and Gleybar Torres. Despite just 109 games overall, Julien ranked fifth in walks (64) at his position, aligning his skillset perfectly with the RDBL and raising his floor.  The Falcons resisted the urge to activate him with Julien entering 2024 as one of the league’s top activations.

11. Burlingame Blue Ducks

Re-Draft Pick: C Ethan Salas (SD), Originally 5th Overall by Grapes

Actual Pick: 1B Kyle Manzardo (CLE)

Salas entered the 2023 Reserve Draft as one of the top teenagers in RDBL History with jaw-dropping reports for a 16-year-old backstop.  The phenom has done little to shake the hype with a strong 2023 campaign that saw him rise all the way to Double-A.  His age and ultimate ETA remain the only knock against him compared to the other prospects on this list.  At what point are the Padres comfortable turning the reigns behind the plate over to Salas for 120+ games to produce at a Top-5 or 10 rate among backstops? 

12. Mission Viejo Maulers

Re-Draft Pick: OF Walker Jenkins (MIN), Originally 113th Overall by Taters

Actual Pick: SS Vaughn Grissom (BOS)

It won’t be a surprise to look back at this list and have Jenkins emerge as the best pick of the bunch.  The High School draftee carried lofty expectations entering the 2023 MLB Draft, but those rose to franchise-changer levels following his professional debut where he slashed .362/.417/.571.

13. Mission Viejo Maulers

Re-Draft Pick: SS Colson Montgomery (CHW), Originally 15th Overall by Devils

Actual Pick: OF Vance Honeycutt (UNC)

Montgomery’s 2023 season was delayed by an oblique injury, opening the door for his availability in a mid-season trade to the Alamo Short Stacks. When he returned he showed one of the best combinations of hittability and power in the minor leagues. A strong start to 2024 in Double-A could put him on the fast track to the North Side where he should settle in as a long-term answer at shortstop for the White Sox.

14. Spokane Fightin’ Fish

Re-Draft Pick: OF James Wood (WSH), Originally 3rd Overall by Maulers

Actual Pick: 2B Connor Norby (BAL)

Wood’s jump to Double-A in 2023 saw his strikeouit rate rise, but he continued to hit for power while displaying his athleticism in the outfield and on the bases. More seasoning is needed at the plate, but the upside remains among the highest in the Minor Leagues.

15. Mt. Diablo Devils

Re-Draft Pick: SS Jackson Merrill (SD), Originally 4th Overall to Fringe

Actual Pick: SS Colson Montgomery (CHW)

A sweet lefthanded swing and plus hitting potential are Merrill’s carrying attributes, but he’s also an athletic shortstop who has added positional versatility in anticipation of a 2024 call-up. He added a lot of good weight as a high school senior and has enhanced his power game in pro ball to the point where he could be good for 20-plus homers annually. Evaluators trimmed a bit off his ceiling in 2023, but it comes with a high floor that should make him a strong addition to the Fringe lineup when ready.

Honorable Mention: SS Adael Amador, SS Masyn Winn, C Dalton Rushing, RHP Hurston Waldrep, 1B Kyle Manzardo, SS Zach Neto

State of the Franchise: Spokane Fightin' Fish

GM Michael Tirabassi has set his Franchise apart as the most consistent winner in RDBL History, finishing no worse than third place in six of the last seven seasons.  Tirabassi’s group carried that torch again in 2023, winning their second Regular Season Title while coming up just short in the RDBL Playoffs, falling to the eventual Champion Lake Merced Goutfish.  The club will face some difficult decisions before Draft Day, but have plenty of firepower remaining to continue their dynastic run.

Franchise History Page

President of Baseball Operations: Michael Tirabassi

Headquarters: Spokane, WA

Seasons: 10

Cash Finishes: 6 (2nd in RDBL)

Division Titles: 5 (RDBL Record)

Lifetime Earnings: $4,990 (RDBL Record)

Top Hitter: Mookie Betts, 478.0 (2018)

Top Pitcher: Max Scherzer, 558.0 (2016)

2023 Season

The Spokane Fightin’ Fish were a powerhouse again in 2023, becoming the third team in RDBL History to lead the RDBL in both hitting and pitching in the Regular Season.  The club had a more balanced look across their entire roster in 2023, buoyed by young star Julio Rodriguez who shook off a slow start to finish runner-up for the RDBL Activation of the Year Award while plugging holes around the absences of off-season acquisition Aaron Judge and Draft Day steal Corey Seager.

The grizzled duo of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander anchored the rotation while the mid-season addition of Zach Wheeler helped the club pull away from the competition and cruise to the Regular Season Title.

Despite coming up short over the season’s final five weeks, the Fightin’ Fish left their mark on the RDBL History Books by setting seven of 17 League Records reached in 2023.  That pushed Tirabassi well ahead of the competition for his second RDBL Executive of the Year Award.

Lost to 2024 Free Agency

OF Aaron Judge, 1B Jose Abreu, OF Tyler O’Neill, SS Dansby Swanson, RHP Zach Wheeler, OF Taylor Ward, RHP Justin Verlander, 2B Jonathan India, C Mitch Garver, OF Teoscar Hernandez, C Cal Raleigh

Current Projected Keeper Roster Ranked by Value

1. OF Julio Rodriguez (2R/$3)

2. SS Corey Seager (2/$42)

3. 2B Luis Arraez (3/$1)

4. 1B/3B Yandy Diaz (3D/$15)

5. OF Steven Kwan (3D/$15)

6. RHP Mitch Keller (2/$1)

7. RHP Aaron Nola (3/$43)

8. 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes (3R/$5)

9. LHP Braxton Garrett (2FA/$5)

10. SS Willy Adames (3R/$5)

11. U Heston Kjerstad (1R/$1)

12. RP Jordan Romano (2/$8)

One look at the group of players lost to 2024 Free Agency by the Fightin’ Fish reveals just how much work Tirabassi will have to do to replace the production lost from those 12 starters along with Max Scherzer who is set to be cut from his $50 deal.  Building around Julio Rodriguez, easily in the conversation for the best value in all of the RDBL, as well as Corey Seager and Luis Arraez is not a bad place to start.

2022 Draft Day steals Yandy Diaz and Steven Kwan each jump from $5 to $15, still providing plenty of value but cutting $20 total into Tirabassi’s 2024 cap space flexibility while Ke’Bryan Hayes showed some glimmers of hope in the second half that the Fish hope to build on in his final season of control.

Aaron Nola leads the rotation on paper but stands out as a potential trade candidate before Draft Day.  That will leave Mitch Keller and Braxton Garrett next in line with Jordan Romano a candidate to return for a fourth straight season for the Fish.

Heston Kjerstad will be a name to watch in Spring Training as he tries to earn an Opening Day spot in a talented and crowded Orioles depth chart.  Kjerstad only played at DH in 2023, making him only eligible at U to open 2024.

Farm System

1. OF Heston Kjerstad (Orioles)

2. 2B Termarr Johnson (Pirates)

3. 2B Connor Norby (Orioles)

4. RHP Emerson Hancock (Mariners)

5. 1B Matt Mervis (Cubs)

6 . RHP Ben Joyce (Angels)

The Farm System is in need of a jolt, a feat that will be difficult to accomplish with the Fightin’ Fish currently not selecting until 60th Overall, the final pick of the 4th Round.  Kjerstad anchors the Farm System, building back his value following a heart condition that sidelined him in 2021 and forced the Lake Merced Goutfish to cut the former 2nd overall pick.  A bat first player, Kjerstad should carve out a role in Baltimore early in 2024 with the potential to hold both outfield and first base eligibility.

Termarr Johnson likely has the most overall upside of the group as a former High School draftee by Tirabassi.  An up and down 2023 campaign has dimmed his star a bit, but the potential remains as an impact second baseman with an ETA closer to 2025 or 2026. 

The Fish were hopeful Connor Norby could be freed from the Orioles loaded middle infield depth chart, but that went to Joey Ortiz in last week’s Corbin Burnes deal.  Norby is now stuck in a AAA or backup role to start 2024 and will look to shake that label this year.

A mixed 2023 campaign for Emerson Hancock could push his future to the bullpen where his value would be largely diminished while flame-throwing Ben Joyce remains a potential closer in Anaheim. 

Off-Season Questions

Is Aaron Nola the first to go?

The top end of the Fish roster features three 450+ point hitters for just $46 combined in Rodriguez, Seager and Arraez, giving pause to the thought of Tirabassi committing to a rebuild.  Cap Space flexibility will likely be key though which opens the door for Aaron Nola to exit stage left before Draft Day.  Nola’s $43 option for 2024 comes on the heels of a 376.0 point season with a 4.46 ERA but is just one year removed from a 560.0 point season in 2022.

Rebuilding the Farm System a Priority?

With just six prospects currently under contract and a case to be made for only 3-4 to be retained, Tirabassi will have his hands full on rebuilding the club’s Farm System.  While the club has successfully leaned on big league depth acquired in the Reserve Draft, a run at a 2024 Title will likely require some shiny prospects that can draw the interest of other clubs in June/July.  Without a selection in the first three rounds currently, that will require some heavy lifting from the club’s scouting department. 

They wouldn’t trade J-Rod, would they?

The Fightin’ Fish Front Office has at least toyed with the idea of shopping star Julio Rodriguez according to sources.  The club would only entertain that move “to become one of the top Farm Systems in the league” per one Executive who inquired about Rodriguez’s availability.  It’s currently a long-shot, but Tirabassi can never be counted out from zigging when others are zagging.

Rumor Central: Trout Expected to be Released by Grapes

The Asti Grape Stompers are currently planning to release outfielder Mike Trout (2/$58) according to sources. The club is faced with a $58 second year option on Trout who also played for the Grapes in 2013 and 2014.

Trout has earned a combined $608 over ten seasons of RDBL play, completing each of the three previous contracts in full. If released, it will be the first time the future Hall of Famer has been cut in RDBL History.

It was another season marred by injury for the three-time American League MVP in 2023 for the Grapes. Trout managed to stay healthy for most of the first half before he suffered a fractured wrist in early July, and he'd appear in just one contest the rest of the way. He ended up playing in only 82 games, while his .263/.367/.490 slash line is the worst of his career in all three categories since his debut campaign in 2011. The 32-year-old still hit 18 homers and walked at a 12.7 percent clip, but his strikeout rate remained high at 28.7 percent. Trout also continued to square up the ball consistently with a 16.0 percent barrel rate and 51.5 percent hard-hit rate, both of which would rank near the top of the league among qualified hitters.

Trout has played in more than 85 percent of the Angels' games just twice over the past seven seasons, with one of those instances being the shortened 2020 campaign. The durability concerns aren't going anywhere with Trout on the wrong side of 30, but he'll still be a clear difference maker for fantasy managers in 2024 if he's able to play even 120 games, which seems close to the best-case scenario given he hasn't reached that mark since 2019.

His market is likely to exceed $40 in Auction, but the days of a $50+ contract might be behind him unless Trout can put together multiple healthy seasons.

Around the RDBL

• The San Mateo Oppo Tacos continue to shop outfielder Juan Soto (2/$65) who is drawing strong interest, but the contract size continues to be a sticking point according to sources. That has led teams to try and lure GM Erik Nielsen into attaching a young asset with Soto to a deal with Josh Jung (2R/$3) being the most frequently mentioned. Nielsen has no plans to move Jung after his standout Rookie campaign and currently plans to retain Soto for the 2024 Season if they can't strike a deal before Draft Day.

• With Walker Buehler (2D/$5) set to get a late start to the 2024 season (per Dodgers manager Dave Roberts), the Stacks are leaning towards retaining right-hander Bryan Woo (2FA/$5) according to sources. Woo, who turns 24 on Jan. 30, made 18 starts after being called up from Class AA in early June, with a 4.21 ERA, 93 strikeouts and 31 walks over 87.2 innings.

• Despite not being considered a top prospect, Honolulu Hammerheads right-hander Kutter Crawford managed to carve out a niche for himself through his consistent and impressive performances in 2023 which has GM Ross Horiuchi giving him a long look for his rotation. Crawford began the season in the bullpen, but his skill and tenacity soon earned him a spot in the starting rotation. Over 129.1 innings, he posted a 4.04 ERA, ranking second among starting pitchers with 2.5 wins above replacement. Crawford could slot in behind Tanner Bibee, Chris Sale, Brandon Pfaadt and Reese Olson with Bailey Ober (2FA/$5) likely his biggest competition for a spot.