Rumor Central: Valdez Continues to Linger As Trade Candidate

The Lake Merced Goutfish continue to bounce back and forth on the future of left-hander Framber Valdez (2/$48) who ranked 8th in scoring in 2023 with 485.0 points as the co-ace of the RDBL Champions.  Valdez has worked the fifth-most innings of any starting pitcher over the past two seasons trailing only Sandy Alcantara, Gerrit Cole, Logan Webb, and Miles Mikolas. The lefty has returned three consecutive seasons of double digit wins, strong ratios, and a voluminous strikeout total and even threw in a no-hitter this season against Cleveland. Valdez was 9-7 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP after completing that no-hitter on August 1st but was just 3-4 with a 4.29 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP from then on, which does not even include his very disappointing postseason where he allowed 12 earned runs and lost all three of his starts. 

Valdez is one of many options for the Goutfish rotation with GM Ryan Atkinson still working through his options. Activation options Bobby Miller (Minors) and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Minors) are clearly ready along with Dylan Cease (3R/$5), Blake Snell (3/$10), George Kirby (3R/$5) and Marcus Stroman (2/$5) all looking to lock in spots for Opening Day.

The St. Joseph Jokers, Las Vegas Aristocrats and Asti Grape Stompers are among the clubs with the cap space and potential need at starting pitcher to have interest in Valdez.

Around the RDBL

• The Alamo Short Stacks continue to scour the market for additional starting pitching after adding left-hander Tarik Skubal (2/$1) on Tuesday.  The club had preliminary discussions on RDBL’s top overall prospect Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Minors) of the Goutfish, but the negotiations couldn’t get passed initial interest from both sides and appear dead according to sources. The Stacks have focused on players with contractual control through at least 2025 according to those familiar with trade talks.  San Mateo Oppo Tacos left-hander Justin Steele (2D/$5), a 2023 Reserve Draft pick of the Stacks, appears to be another name the Stacks have expressed interest in over recent days.  The club also appears to have a logjam in the middle infield with Masyn Winn (Minors) pushing for an Opening Day activation.  The club has floated Gavin Lux (2D/$5) as a potential trade candidate.  Lux retains eligibility at second, shortstop and in the outfield after missing all of 2023 due to a knee injury.
  

• The Cloverdale Clovers are expected to bring back right-hander Michael Kopech (3R/$5) and outfielder Jarred Kelenic (3R/$5) according to sources.  The pair is entering their final season under control with mixed results through the first two seasons of their deals.  Kopech finished the 2023 season on the injured list while recovering from a minor surgery he underwent in September to remove a cyst from his right knee, but after an estimated 6-to-8-week recovery period, the right-hander had a more normal offseason than he's experienced in recent years. Despite struggling to a 5.43 ERA and 1.59 WHIP while striking out 134 batters over a career-high 129.1 innings in 2023, Kopech looks secure in the White Sox rotation heading into Opening Day. Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said early in camp that the team is leaning toward playing Kelenic every day in left field rather than platooning him, David O'Brien of The Athletic reports. This isn't terribly surprising to hear since Atlanta doesn't have an obvious platoon partner for Kelenic right now, but it's nonetheless encouraging for his fantasy prospects. The 24-year-old actually had a better OPS against lefties (.774) than he did versus righties (.738) in 2023, although in his career he has just a .566 OPS and 29.9 percent strikeout rate against southpaws. Atlanta feels that giving Kelenic regular work versus lefties will be the best way for him to improve.

TRADE: Stacks Acquire Skubal, Hoerner in Big Deal with Maulers

The dam of Alamo Short Stacks Draft Picks finally broke on Tuesday as the club announced a major deal with the Mission Viejo Maulers. The Stacks will acquire LHP Tarik Skubal (2/$1), 2B Nico Hoerner (2R/$3) and a 2024 3rd Round Pick (40th Overall) from the Mission Viejo Maulers for 2024 1st and 2nd Rounders (5th and 29th Overall), outfielder Max Clark (Minors) and infielder Jordan Westburg (Minors).

Skubal underwent left flexor tendon surgery in August of 2022 and his rehab extended through the first three months of last season. He was on a limited pitch count initially upon his return and there were some bumps in the road early, but Skubal eventually rounded into form, going 4-1 with a 1.25 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 52:6 K:BB in his final six starts (36 innings). A ninth-round pick in 2018, Skubal changed up his formula last season, dialing back his slider usage significantly for more four-seam fastballs and changeups. The changeup proved to be a big swing-and-miss pitch for him (50.6 Whiff% per Statcast) -- he still threw his slider, but the changeup became his primary secondary pitch behind the four-seamer. In total, the southpaw pitched just 95 innings last season, but if healthy, he should approach his career high of 149.1 innings set in 2021.

Hoerner took hold of a starting job for the Cubs in 2022 and produced a .281/.327/.410 slash line with 10 homers, 20 steals, 55 RBI and 60 runs in 135 games, and he followed up with similar production last season. He moved from shortstop to second base in 2023 following the signing of Dansby Swanson and had nine long balls, 43 steals, 98 runs and 68 RBI with a .729 OPS across 150 contests. Those figures resulted in a 102 wRC+, and he was sixth in the league in stolen bases while being caught seven times. In total, Hoerner's 414.0 points ranked seventh among second baseman.

The Stacks Front Office was focused on acquiring players through the 2025 Season, which both Skubal and Hoerner are controlled through while maintaining the club's league-high mark in 2024 Cap Space.

The Maulers continued their strong Front Office run, turning a mostly blank roster entering 2023 into a group overflowing with Keeper talent in 2024. GM Chris Ferraro gets back into the 1st Round with this deal after shipping their own pick off last season. The club now holds three picks in the 2nd Round, giving Ferraro even more ammunition to reload this year.

Max Clark is the headliner on the prospect side, entering 2024 as one of the top outfield prospects in baseball. Clark has the potential to be a five-tool player. That’s a term that’s too often thrown around for players who barely scrape average in one of the five tools, but in his case, it’s realistic. He could end up with all five tools grading out as plus. Clark has plus-plus speed, a plus-plus arm, the range to be a plus defender in center field and the bat-to-ball skills to be a plus hitter as well. Projecting his power to be plus is a little more speculative, because he’s a hitter whose line-drive swing has generally been more geared to hitting for average.

Clark got a brief taste of the Florida State League in 2023. He’s expected to start at Low-A Lakeland in 2024 with a goal of playing his way to High-A West Michigan. His combination of speed, defense and hitting ability gives him a high probability of being a useful big leaguer, and if his power develops, he could become a cornerstone of the Tigers’ lineup.

Westburg is a key add for the Maulers with the projection to be an Opening Day activation for a Maulers squad that could use the cap relief. Westburg was one of a host of top young prospects to see action with the Orioles in 2023, receiving a promotion in late June. His playing time with the American League East champs was sporadic, as he wound up starting 53 of 86 games (62 percent). Westburg did start seven of the final 10 regular-season contests and all three games of the Orioles' ALDS loss to the Rangers, so his playing time was trending up late in the year and he should be in line for regular starts in 2024.

The 25-year-old popped 27 homers in the minors in 2022 and 18 in 67 games with Triple-A Norfolk in 2023 before his promotion, but he managed just three long balls in 68 games with Baltimore while dealing with the cavernous left field at Camden Yards. Westburg's average exit velocity (90.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (44.5 percent) were good, and his sprint speed (88th percentile) was better, giving him strong upside in a hurry.

Clark checks in as the 3rd ranked prospect in the Maulers Farm System while Westburg slots in 5th.

Spring Training Notebook: Fringe Suffer Big Blow with Bradish Injury

The Lunatic Fringe took a major hit to their rotation Thursday as it was announced that Kyle Bradish (2D/$5) is dealing with UCL tear and will start the 2024 Season on the IL.  Bradish was one of the breakout stars of 2023, helping lead the Fringe to a Wild Card spot.  The right-hander posted a dominant 2.83 ERA and 1.04 WHIP, finishing with 484.0 points which ranked 9th among all pitchers.

After receiving a PRP injection, Bradish will attempt to pitch through the tear but that historically has been a difficult thing to successfully accomplish.

Bradish was expected to serve as the ace of the staff alongside Jordan Montgomery (2/$20) and activations Grayon Rodriguez (1R/$1) and Josiah Gray (1R/$1) who were added to the Active Roster for the 2023 Playoffs.  With Bradish out and Montgomery remaining unsigned, the group has gone from one of the best units in the RDBL being a potential question mark for GM Tony Guglielmi.

The Fringe could have an internal option to backfill Bradish in right-hander Clarke Schmidt (Minors) if they do choose to go in another direction.  After securing a spot in the Yankees' Opening Day rotation last spring, Schmidt looked poised for an age-27 breakout. He did in some ways rise to the occasion, logging the highest innings total of any Yankees pitcher not named Gerrit Cole, but his ERA (4.64) and WHIP (1.35) were only mediocre and he made it past the sixth inning just three times in 32 starts.  He carries a 263.0 point projection with a 4.19 ERA by CBS.

Around the RDBL

• Free Agent left-hander John Means is expected to be about a month behind the rest of Orioles starters as the team has delayed his Spring Training work after an elbow flare up prior to last year’s ALDS.  Means came back from Tommy John surgery late in 2023 and showed some positive signs of returning to form with a 2.66 ERA in four starts.

• Jokers young star Gunnar Henderson’s (2R/$3) Grapefruit League debut will be delayed after he was diagnosed with a strained oblique, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.  As things stand right now, the Orioles do not believe Henderson's availability for Opening Day is in jeopardy. That assumes he progresses from here on out without issue, of course. The reigning American League Rookie of the Year posted an .814 OPS with 28 home runs and 10 stolen bases over 150 contests for Baltimore last season.

• One of the biggest names to watch this Spring is Burlingame Blue Ducks right-hander Alek Manoah who threw off a mound Thursday and appears to have lost significant weight during the offseason, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.  The right-hander was downright awful for most of 2023 and ended the season dealing with shoulder issues that required injections to reduce soreness and inflammation. Manoah seems to have taken his offseason program very seriously though, and he worked off a mound for the first time this spring without any apparent issues.  Manoah holds a 3R/$5 option for the Ducks, his final season under control.

• Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said Thursday that the team is leaning toward playing Cloverdale Clovers outfielder Jarred Kelenic (3R/$5) every day in left field rather than platooning him, David O'Brien of The Athletic reports. This isn't terribly surprising to hear since Atlanta doesn't have an obvious platoon partner for Kelenic right now, but it's nonetheless encouraging for his fantasy prospects. The 24-year-old actually had a better OPS against lefties (.774) than he did versus righties (.738) in 2023, although in his career he has just a .566 OPS and 29.9 percent strikeout rate against southpaws. Atlanta feels that giving Kelenic regular work versus lefties will be the best way for him to improve. Kelenic is currently a favorite to return to the Clovers as he enters his final season for control.

• Expected Reserve Draft 1st Rounder Samuel Basallo won't be ready to catch in games until around late April after being diagnosed with a right elbow stress fracture, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.  The top prospect is able to catch still but not allowed to throw. If Basallo gets into any Grapefruit League action this spring, it will be as a designated hitter. The 19-year-old is likely to be assigned to Double-A Bowie once healthy following a breakout 2023 season which saw him slash .313/.402/.551 with 20 home runs across three levels.  Basallo shouldn’t be on the board for long after being ranked as a Top-30 prospect across every publication this Winter.

• Astros general manager Dana Brown said Wednesday that Mt. Diablo Devils right-hander J.P. France (2FA/$5) is dealing with shoulder inflammation, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports. While it's less than ideal that France is nursing an injury in the early stages of spring training, Brown didn't express much concern, noting that the right-hander hasn't been shut down from throwing and is still able to play catch. France is likely to gradually stretch out his throwing distance before advancing to mound work in the weeks to come, but the shoulder injury is still likely to delay his Grapefruit League debut. So long as France is fully stretched out by the end of camp, he could still head into Opening Day with a spot in Houston's rotation while remaining in the mix for a spot on the Devils Keeper Roster.