- Greg Shelley
- Jan 18, 2024
- 4 min read
The 2024 Roger Dorn Baseball League Season is officially underway as the locks were taken off Front Offices on Monday with a pair of deals already in the books. Several high profile Free Agents remain on the MLB Market, but with prospect rankings hitting the web this week as well as trade activity across baseball set to hit overdrive, value changes in the RDBL are happening on a daily basis as Spring Training approaches.
Here's the latest 3 Up, 3 Down as 67 days remain until the 2024 RDBL Draft.
Michael Busch (Minors), Mt. Diablo Devils
Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said Saturday that while Busch's ultimate position will be up to manager Craig Counsell, he expects the 26-year-old to play first base, Jared Wyllys of AllCHGO.com reports. "He's certainly going to play. There's no question. It's up to Craig where. I think first base is obviously a natural spot for him. He's played there a lot," Hoyer said at the team's Cubs Convention. Most of Busch's playing time with the Dodgers in 2023 came at third base, and it's possible he could wind up there if the Cubs bring in another first baseman. However, the consensus seems to be that the defensively-challenged Busch fits best at first base. If Busch is indeed confined to first, it puts a damper on Matt Mervis' dynasty outlook.
RP Jordan Hicks (2FA/$5), Maltese Falcons
The signing of Jordan Hicks by the San Francisco Giants could be a boon for GM Gary Falzon with the club's intention to use Hicks as a starter to open 2024. After only appearing as a reliever in 2023, Hicks can be slotted into the RP spot for Draft Day, essentially giving the club a built-in seventh starter. Hicks can't make a start from the RP spot, but the depth at the position is always something clubs are seeking.
Hicks' only experience in the majors as a starter came early in 2022 with the Cardinals, when he posted a 5.47 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and 25:21 K:BB over 26.2 innings. His 204 other big-league appearances have all been in relief, including all 65 last season. The Giants always have the option of eventually moving Hicks back to the bullpen if starting doesn't work out, of course. The 27-year-old held a 3.29 ERA and 81:32 K:BB across 65.2 frames for the Cardinals and Blue Jays in an impressive 2023 campaign.
OF Roman Anthony (Free Agent), Boston Red Sox
While Colt Keith has been rumored as the top overall pick in the 2024 Reserve Draft by the Meinert Hops, Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony appears to be gaining ground. Anthony topped the Baseball Prospectus Top 101 among Free Agents, one of 47 ranked and available to RDBL clubs.
Anthony was the Red Sox second-round pick—receiving a late-first round bonus—in the 2022 draft. A potential five-tool outfielder, he posted a sub-.700 OPS in Salem for the first six weeks of the season, albeit with much, much better underlying contact data, and was curiously promoted to Greenville in May. Salem is an awful place to hit, but one wonders if even the Red Sox expected him to post a near-1.000 OPS the rest of the way in the Sally League. His swing-and-miss jumped a bit at the new level, but he continued to make plus swing decisions and hit the ball very hard. Anthony will need to hit the ball in the air more and add a bit more physical strength to reach the 30-home-run mark, but that’s very much in play. In fact, it’s the projection. He already has the requisite above-average bat speed and penchant for pull-side contact. Anthony’s swing is reminiscent of Josh Bell’s from the left side and I could see “the good Josh Bell year” be about where he lands for his peak.
OF Juan Soto (2/$65), San Mateo Oppo Tacos
The San Mateo Oppo Tacos are already at a crossroads in GM Erik Nielsen's first season at the helm. The club's top players are also their highest priced, led by star outfielder Juan Soto. Thus far, the market has been lukewarm for Soto who is actively being shopped as the Tacos look to shed some payroll and gain back some cap space flexibility as well as restock the shelves of their Farm System.
Soto is fresh of third 500+ point season, ranking sixth in scoring among all hitters last season. Under control through 2025, Soto's market could pick up later in Spring as clubs appear focused on saving cap space currently.
Matt Mervis (Minors), Spokane Fightin' Fish
The addition of Michael Busch and likely return of Cody Bellinger could quickly cloud the future for Fightin' Fish farmhand Matt Mervis. Was Mervis a bit unlucky in the majors last year? Perhaps, but the gap between a .531 OPS and what he’d need to be a good regular as a corner bat isn’t bridged by some batted ball luck. Mervis did hit the ball pretty hard—albeit in the air less often than in the minors—and his contact rate, while suboptimal, wouldn’t be disqualifying given the damage he can do. He struggled mightily with offspeed down in the zone, though, and you can see that in both the raw whiff rates and your favorite heat map. Mervis has plenty of bat speed, and plenty of pop, but his struggles with soft stuff are downright concerning given that he’s a bat-first, -second, and -third prospect.
3B Colt Keith (Free Agent), Detroit Tigers
While the light on Keith hasn't dimmed, the Tigers infielder is facing more competition for the top overall pick in the 2024 Reserve Draft by the Meinert Hops. Entering the off-season as the favorite to go 1-1, Keith might be slipping behind Roman Anthony, Cade Horton and/or Samuel Basallo who have ranked right alongside the Tigers infielder on the Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus Top Prospect Lists.
Keith also has a chance to play his way out of the Reserve Draft as he will enter Spring Training with a chance to earn a spot on the Tigers Opening Day roster and be Auction eligible.
