Hops Prepare for Top Overall Pick, Looking to Overcome Mixed Results for the Selection Historically

The Meinert Hops are set to make the first overall selection in the 2024 Reserve Draft for the first time in Franchise History. Based on RDBL History, the odds of turning that pick into a productive one look to be quite long for GM Garrett Shelley.

Since the league was founded in 2013, ten Reserve Drafts have taken place with those 10 players accounting for a total of just 1,901.5 points during their Rookie RDBL Contracts with 823.0 of that production coming from Fernando Tatis, Jr. with five players scoring zero points total.

Tatis is the only player taken first overall to finish his RDBL Rookie contract which concluded at the end of the 2023 season. His time with the Lake Merced Goutfish, who acquired him in June of 2019 from the Maltese Falcons for Tommy Pham, Adalberto Mondesi and Luis Severino, was hardly smooth. Tatis immediately burst on the scene as one of the best players in baseball in 2019, posting 444.0 with 42 home runs. Shoulder and wrist injuries in the COVID-shortened 2020 season delayed his 2021 debut which ultimately never happened due to a steroid suspension.

The second most productive pick was right-hander Jon Gray who was drafted by the Lake Merced Goutfish in 2014, the first selection by GM Ryan Atkinson in Franchise History. He would go on to be activated by the Cloverdale Clovers, spending 2017 and 2018 there before being dropped entering the 2019 season. Gray compiled 448.0 points over those two seasons.

Jurickson Profar, the first selection in RDBL History in 2013, was finally activated by the Lunatic Fringe in 2019, also spending 2021 with the club before being released. He posted 440.0 over those two seasons, the third most by a 1st Overall pick.

The Las Vegas Aristocrats made Cuban defector Hector Olivera the top overall selection in 2015 after he agreed to sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers for six years and $62.5 million. A July trade that summer moved Olivera to the Atlanta Braves where he appeared in 24 games, entering 2016 as a potential activation candidate for the 'Crats. The Front Office held off on the move which proved to be smart as Olivera was suspended for a domestic violence charge after six games and never appeared in another big league game.

Olivera was joined by Lewis Brinson (Grapes, 2016) and Austin Martin ('Crats, 2017) as top picks that failed to score a point as an activated player while Joey Bart (2019, Ducks) totaled just 26.5 points in 2023 as a member of the Ducks Active Roster.

Things could start to turn for the group of former 1st Overall picks soon with Hunter Greene, Anthony Volpe and Roki Sasaki all looking like positive contributors moving forward. An injury to Greene in 2023 marred his activation season for the Asti Grape Stompers, who picked the hard-throwing right-hander in 2017. He totaled 154.0 points and is a strong bet to return to the Grapes for 2024.

Volpe is in line for an Opening Day activation for the Cloverdale Clovers after mixed bag of results in his Rookie campaign that saw him post 288.5 points while still under a Minor League contract for GM Chris Shelley.

Sasaki, the St. Joseph Jokers top prospect, is expected to move over to the big leagues from Japan for the 2026 season and ranked 13th overall in the RDBL Top 100 from earlier this week.

Who is the worst top Overall Pick in RDBL History?

• 1. Jurickson Profar, Fringe (2013)
• 2. Jonathan Gray, Goutfish (2014)
• 3. Hector Olivera, 'Crats (2015)
• 4. Lewis Brinson, Grapes (2016)

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2024 Pre-Season RDBL Top 100 By The Numbers

The Roger Dorn Baseball League 2024 Pre-Season Top 100 Prospect List is live with Lake Merced Goutfish right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto taking home the top spot. We wanted to highlight some of the interesting numbers that accompany the RDBL Top 100 below, including an overview on how many prospects are set to hit RDBL Active Rosters this year.

1: The top ranked Yoshinobu Yamamoto of the Lake Merced Goutfish joins Kris Bryant (Fish, 2016), Trea Turner (Stacks, 2017), Cody Bellinger (Fringe, 2018), Ronald Acuña (2019, Goutfish), Yordan Alvarez (2021, Goutfish) and Julio Rodriguez (2022, Fish) as prospects ranked atop the RDBL Top 100 since the league started the annual series.

4: Number of prospects already locked into a 2024 Opening Day Activation after being added to their respective Active Rosters for the 2023 Playoffs (Drew Waters, Maulers, Nolan Jones, Maulers, Grayson Rodriguez, Fringe, Josiah Gray, Fringe)

12: The most prospects ranked in the RDBL Top 100 by a Franchise, shared by the Asti Grape Stompers and Alamo Short Stacks.

38: Number of prospects we currently have projected to be 2024 Opening Day Activations across the RDBL including five of the Top 10.

160: Number of players under a Minor League contract currently in the Roger Dorn Baseball League.

921: The amount of points already scored by Lunatic Fringe pitching prospect Triston McKenzie (24), the most of any player still in a Minor League deal in the Minor Leagues.

2017: RHP Triston McKenzie (24) is the only member of the 2017 Reserve Draft Class still under a Minor League contract.

2018: Royce Lewis (17) and McKenzie Gore (67) are the only members of the 2018 Reserve Draft Class still under a Minor League contract.

Five "Buy Low" RDBL Top 100 Prospects Expected to Rise in 2024

The 2024 Roger Dorn Baseball League Pre-Season Top 100 Prospect List was published Sunday night with some of the games brightest young stars set to dot RDBL Active Rosters in 2024. While there are plenty of household names in the Top 50, we wanted to take a deeper dive into the back half of the group on some potential breakout candidates for the 2024 Season.

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56. RHP Max Meyer, Las Vegas Aristocrats

Earlier this month during the Winter Meetings, Marlins manager Skip Schumaker namedropped a player he is looking forward to seeing in 2024: Max Meyer. 

As Schumaker put it, Miami’s path to success lies in its rotation -- and in the starters on the way. Meyer, ranked by MLB Pipeline as the organization’s No. 3 prospect, was just six innings into his Major League career when he tore the UCL in his right elbow on July 23, 2022. He hasn’t pitched in a game since then while he’s been recovering from Tommy John surgery. 

While Meyer might not open the season in the Marlins rotation, he figures to make an impact quickly in 2024 and could emerge as a mid-season option for a talented 'Crats roster. He still possess #2 starter upside that could quickly be realized in Miami.

64. RHP Dylan Lesko, Asti Grape Stompers

One of the more talented prep, right-handed pitchers, Dylan Lesko, was discussed as a potential top-five pick which does not happen that often for prep arms. Unfortunately, his senior season ended early due to an injury that led to Tommy John Surgery, but that did not deter the Padres from selecting Lesko at 15 overall.

Lesko returned in 2023, pitching 33 innings across three levels, reaching High-A, and posting a 5.45 ERA with 52 strikeouts. The good news is that the stuff appeared to be back, as Lesko’s arsenal looked strong. The bad news, Lesko struggled with control, throwing strikes at just a 58 percent clip.

His fastball came back to life, sitting 95 with explosive carry at the top of the zone, appearing to have a rising effect. The IVB numbers are elite for any arm, consistently checking in at over 20 inches. The changeup has always been Lesko’s bread and butter, being one of the pitches in his draft class. He sells it well with fast arm speed but has a large velocity differential and a ton of late-fading action. The pitch plays extremely well with his fastball. Lesko’s third pitch is a mid-70s curveball with a ton of downward action. It's a high spinning pitch that he does not land for strikes often, but does flash potential.

Given the mid-90s fastball and a 15 mph separation between that and the next pitch, Lesko could benefit from adding a slider or cutter to bridge the velocity gap. The upside is tremendous, though and 2024 could be a big breakout season considering it would be another year removed from Tommy John.

90. OF Josue De Paula, Maltese Falcons

De Paula has quite an interesting path to getting to professional baseball. Growing up in Brooklyn and being cousins with Stephon Marbury, De Paula moved to the Dominican Republic at 14. Just a couple of years later, he inked a $1.5 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers and took the Dominican Summer League by storm that summer, becoming one of the games biggest potential prospect breakouts.

Standing at 6’3”, De Paula has what many would call a projectable frame, and with solid contact skills, he set himself up for what many thought would be a huge 2023. In the DSL as a young 17-year-old, De Paula slashed .350/.448/.522 with five home runs and 16 stolen bases across 223 plate appearances. Those numbers were backed by a 91 percent zone-contact rate and an 85 percent overall clip. Jump forward to 2023, and De Paula skips the complex level entirely, beginning the Single-A season just turning 18 years old. It was an aggressive move, and for the most part, De Paula held his own, posting a .284/.396/.372 slash, but it came with just two home runs and 19 extra-base hits in 340 plate appearances. He did make improvements throughout the year, and from July forward, he posted a .306/.427/.397 slash and walked nearly as much as he struck out.

If you want to poke a hole in De Paula’s game, it would likely be that he is considered too passive, swinging at just 40 percent of pitches in his full-season debut while making contact at a 79 percent clip. The OBP looks great, but De Paula needs to tap into more power, which we have not seen yet. The projection aspect is tough, because you look at a player with this kind of body and just assume they will add good weight and strength, especially in the Dodgers org, but it has not come yet. De Paula will likely be a solid source of stolen bases, as he has swiped thirty bases in 128 games and has clocked plus run times. The contact numbers suggest plus or better contact, and De Paula’s barrel control is high-end. If and when the power comes, it is only a matter of time before De Paula soars up prospect lists.

96. OF Miguel Bleis, Alamo Short Stacks

Bleis signed for $1.5 million out of the Dominican Republic in January of 2021, and after a solid showing in the DSL that year, he created huge buzz on the complex in Fort Myers throughout 2022 because of his bat speed and power. As FanGraphs put it, who ranked Bleis inside their Top 20 entering last season, "This is one of the toolsiest prospects in all the minors and was one of the players on the overall Top 100 who entered 2023 with a chance to "Chourio," i.e. leap into the top-10 mix within the next year." Instead Bleis had a rough first month of full-season ball, strained his left shoulder during a swing at the end of May, and ended up needing season-ending surgery. Bleis slid to the back of the 55 FV tier in a small May Top 100 update before the injury occurred. The shoulder complicates things, but his evaluation really hasn't changed, even with the early 2023 struggles. Bleis has All-Star talent and just about all of his underlying indicators suggest he's a better hitter than his surface stats do, though he is more chase-prone than is ideal.

Entering 2024 healthy, Bleis has a chance to "Chourio" again this season and become a more household name for the Alamo Short Stacks.

Unranked: RHP Cade Cavalli, Mt. Diablo Devils

There has never been much doubting of Cavalli’s stuff dating back to his days at Oklahoma, but the durability is somewhat concerning. In his first pro season in 2021, Cavalli made it to Triple-A and had the most successful season of his career as he pitched 123.1 innings with a 3.36 ERA and 175 strikeouts.

His Triple-A numbers in 2022 were also strong as he struck out 104 batters across 97 innings with a 3.71 ERA. Unfortunately, Cavalli had Tommy John surgery after a strong Spring Training in 2023, pushing his return toward June of 2024.

When healthy, Cavalli has a fastball sitting near 96 and touching near triple digits while featuring a curve, slider, and changeup. The curve is his most used secondary, which sits in the mid-80s and averages nearly 50 inches of vertical break. The slider and changeup sit in a similar velocity band in the upper 80s, having over 25 inches of separation between the two.

With health, Cavalli could take off as a starting pitcher, but there are risks given Cavalli’s health track record and durability.

Five More That Could Rise: 55. RHP Edward Cabrera (Clovers), 62. RHP Jackson Jobe (Crats), 79. OF Sammy Zavala (Stacks), 63. 3B Muketaka Murakami (Goutfish), 83. RHP Chase Burns ('Crats)