3 Up, 3 Down: Lee and Pair of Starters See Jump in Value

The Free Agent Market is heating up and appears to be at a tipping point as the Yoshinobu Yamamoto decision is likely to come this week. With Yamamoto's domino set to fall, that should spark a wave of movement on the likes of Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Rhys Hoskins and other high-profile names that RDBL clubs are closely monitoring.

Here's the latest 3 Up, 3 Down following the last two weeks of MLB transactions.

OF Jung Hoo Lee (Free Agent)

The San Francisco Giants inked Jung Hoo Lee to a 6-year, $113M deal last week that should lead to a healthy market for the outfielder in the 2024 Auction Draft. Lee, 25, has been a highly anticipated free agent for a long time now. It was reported in January that the Kiwoom Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization would post him for MLB clubs after the 2023 campaign. At that point, Lee was coming off an excellent 2022 campaign. He had always had strong plate discipline but took that part of his game to new heights last year, walking in 10.5% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 5.1% of them. He had never hit more than 15 home runs in a season but managed to tally 23 in that season. He finished with a batting line of .349/.421/.575 for a wRC+ of 175, indicating he was 75 percent better than league average. He also won a Golden Glove award for a fifth straight year and also earned MVP honors.

But his platform year didn’t go quite according to plan. He hit .318/.406/.455 with just six homers in his 86 games in 2023. He injured his left ankle in late July, necessitating season-ending surgery. Nonetheless, he garnered plenty of interest from clubs like the Giants, Padres, Yankees and Mets before being officially posted last week. He figures to draw a similar market to Masataka Yoshida who went for $23 to the Asti Grape Stompers in 2023, though it could come with a bump for being a San Francisco Giant.

RHP Ryan Pepiot (2FA/$5), San Mateo Oppo Tacos

Pepiot was traded from the Dodgers to the Rays along with Jonny DeLuca in exchange for Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot on Thursday, locking in a full-time starting spot for Tampa Bay as well as a return to the San Mateo Oppo Tacos in 2024. Pepiot missed most of the 2023 season with an oblique injury, though he ended the season healthy while handling a full starting workload. He also enjoyed plenty of success, maintaining a 2.14 ERA with a 38:5 K:BB across 42 innings with the belief from the Rays in his talents only solidifying his spot for GM Erik Nielsen.

RHP Seth Lugo (2FA/$5), Maltese Falcons

The Falcons are light on rotation options behind activation-ready right-hander Eury Perez, making Seth Lugo's 3-year, $45M deal with the Kansas City Royals a potential confidence boost for GM Gary Falzon to slot him into the second spot. Lugo was connected to a wide range of teams this winter -- including the Mets, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Reds, Tigers and Atlanta -- but he has opted to join the Royals and should immediately jump to the top of their rotation depth chart. The 34-year-old right-hander worked as a full-time starter with the Padres in 2023 and registered a sharp 3.57 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 140:36 K:BB across 146.1 innings. He had a 3.56 ERA and 124:37 K:BB in 111.1 innings of relief with the Mets between 2021-22.

IF Jonathan India (Free Agent)

The Reds’ signing of Jeimer Candelario added to the infield surplus that could lead to the outing of former National League Rookie of the Year Jonathan India.  If Candelario is now taking regular time at third base, that leaves India, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, and Noelvi Marte all competing for middle infield spots.  Even if Candelario slides over to first base, Christian Encarnacion-Strand also needs a place to play, and the DH position provides some a few extra at-bats for the Reds to juggle all these options.

Since winning the ROY in 2021, India has hit .246/.333/.394 with 27 homers over 960 plate appearances for Cincinnati, with hamstring injuries and plantar fasciitis impacting his ability to stay on the field.  Public defensive metrics have also been very unimpressed with India’s glovework, so his contributions as a second baseman specifically could be limited. His ultimate landing spot will be a big factor in how strong his market will be in the 2024 Auction Draft.

IF Miguel Vargas (2R/$3), Alamo Short Stacks

The Stacks aggressively activated Vargas to start the 2023 season, but by mid-July he was back in the minors, where he remained for the remainder of the campaign. The heralded prospect struggled to a .195/.305/.367 slash line over 81 games, and the demotion came after he batted a paltry .079 (5-for-63) over his final 23 contests. Despite the disappointing stat line, there are reasons to believe that Vargas can succeed at the MLB level. He demonstrated refined plate discipline while up with the big club, posting a hearty 12.5 percent walk rate and a respectable 20.1 percent strikeout rate along with a borderline-elite 20.8 percent chase rate, per Statcast. Vargas didn't sulk after being sent down, instead extending his run of minor-league success with an .886 OPS and 10 homers over 60 Triple-A contests. Los Angeles filled the void at second base following Vargas' demotion primarily by transitioning Mookie Betts from right field, and the experiment went smoothly enough that Betts has been announced as the full-time option at the keystone again in 2024. The Dodgers plan on moving Vargas to the outfield, but that's unlikely to come with consistent playing time to start next season making Vargas a lock to be released.

IF Ronny Mauricio (Minors), Lake Merced Goutfish

Goutfish infielder Ronny Mauricio suffered a knee injury playing in the Dominican Winter League on Sunday and it turns out it's a torn ACL, which will require surgery, the Mets announced Tuesday. Depending upon how the recovery goes, it's possible Mauricio could return and play maybe around half the 2024 season, but there's no doubt he'll start the season on the injured list. The team said an estimated timeline would be determined after the procedure.

Mauricio, 22, was having a big winter ball season so far, hitting .433 with two doubles, a triple and a home run in seven games. He debuted for the Mets last season and the former top-65 prospect was expected to compete for a starting job heading into spring training with the potential of an Opening Day activation for GM Ryan Atkinson.

As things stood prior to Mauricio's injury, the Mets were set to have him, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Joey Wendle fight for the third base job out of camp, though they have also been attached to Justin Turner in Free Agency.

State of the Franchise: Lunatic Fringe

We continue our State of the Franchise Series with the Lunatic Fringe who enter their 11th Season in the Roger Dorn Baseball League with a pair of Peninsula Division Titles. The Fringe are coming off a fourth place finish, exercising patience with a talented group who skyrocketed up the standings between June and July to lock in the top Wild Card spot before a fourth place finish in the RDBL Playoffs.

Franchise History Page

President of Baseball Operations: Tony Guglielmi

Headquarters: San Carlos, CA

Seasons: 10

Cash Finishes: 4

Division Titles: 2

Lifetime Earnings: $1,625

Top Hitter: Ronald Acuña, Jr., 541.0 Points (2023)

Top Pitcher: Sandy Alcantara, 614.0 Points (2022)

2023 Season

The Fringe looked to be on the verge of becoming the league's most anticipated seller in June, but GM Tony Guglielmi had other plans as the club stuck with their core before catching fire and vaulting into the top Wild Card spot. Surviving the loss of ace Sandy Alcantara, the Fringe rode a historic season from Ronald Acuña, Jr. who joined Aaron Judge as the only winner of the RDBL Hitter of the Year and Playoff MVP in the same season.

The move to give $66 to Acuña was hardly Guglielmi's only star-studded move as the club stole Cody Bellinger for just $4 and Kyle Bradish with a Reserve Draft selection while acquiring Matt Olson (who produced 504.0 points) for a pair of Draft picks. Underrated outfielder Lane Thomas helped lead the offense to the second most points in the RDBL last season with all four of those key acquisitions set to return next year.

The 2023 season also marked the a wave of starting pitching options hitting the big leagues and finding success, led by Grayson Rodriguez who emerged as a strong option behind Kyle Bradish and Jordan Montgomery in 2024 while Triston McKenzie, Clarke Schmidt and Josiah Gray all look ready to contribute.

Lost to 2024 Free Agency

RHP Sandy Alcantara, RHP Lucas Giolito, OF J.D. Martinez, 1B Ryan Mountcastle

Current Projected Keeper Roster Ranked by Value

1 OF Ronald Acuña (2/$66)

2. RHP Grayson Rodriguez (1R/$1)

3. RHP Kyle Bradish (2D/$5)

4. 1B Matt Olson (3/$46)

5. OF Cody Bellinger (2/$4)

6. IF Noelvi Marte (1R/$1)

7. OF Lane Thomas (2D/$5)

8. LHP Jordan Montgomery (2/$20)

9. RHP Triston McKenzie (1R/$1)

10. IF Jeimer Candelario (2/$6)

11 OF Marcell Ozuna (2FA/$5)

12. SS Jeremy Pena (3/$9)

13. IF Wilmer Flores (2FA/$5)

14. RHP Josiah Gray (1R/$1)

15. OF Brandon Marsh (2R/$3)

The group is headlined by 2023 Hitter of the Year and Playoff MVP Ronald Acuna who is fresh off the most dominant offensive season in RDBL History with Matt Olson and Cody Bellinger adding to one of the league's top units. The Pitching staff will be the story of the off-season as GM Tony Guglielmi has a bevy of options while being squeezed a bit by the 2023 Playoff activations of Josiah Gray and Grayson Rodriguez.

Kenta Maeda (2D/$5), Reid Detmers (2R/$3) and Andres Gimenez (3D/$15) stick out as potential trade candidates this Winter while catcher will be a key area for the Front Office to address through trades or the Auction Draft.

Farm System

1. *RHP Grayson Rodriguez (Orioles)

2. SS Noelvi Marte (Reds)

3. *RHP Josiah Gray (Nationals)

4. RHP Triston McKenzie (Indians)

5. SS Jackson Merrill (Padres)

6. RHP Clarke Schmidt (Yankees)

7. SS Carson Williams (Rays)

8. C Harry Ford (Mariners)

9. IF Brayan Rocchio (Guardians)

The Fringe continue to do an excellent job in the Reserve Draft with Guglielmi zigging with a pitching-heavy Farm System while everyone seems to be zagging with a hitter-only approach. The Farm System should produce six Opening Day starters between Grayson Rodriguez, Noelvi Marte, Josiah Gray, Triston McKenzie, Clark Schmidt and Brayan Rocchio with 2023 draftees Jackson Merrill and Carson Williams not far behind.

With Rodriguez and Marte looking like elite options and Merrill holding similar upside, the Fringe Farm quietly ranks among the league's best heading into 2024.

Off-Season Questions

Is Guglielmi willing to enter the Draft with a full rotation?

The Fringe have a stable of starting pitching options heading into 2024. The locks to return are Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez with Jordan Montgomery and Josiah Gray ready as well. The club will be forced to make the call on Kenta Maeda (2D/$5) and Reid Detmers (2R/$3) along with the potential activations of Triston McKenzie and Clarke Schmidt also ready. The option is there for Guglielmi to bring a full rotation into 2024, but the more likely scenario is for the club to leave one open.

Address catcher over the off-season or in the Draft?

The Fringe are unlikely to bring back Connor Wong or Travis d'Arnaud, leaving them currently empty at catcher. Guglelmi could be in luck as the 2024 Free Agent Class has a strong group of backstops available, led by Willson Contreras, Jonah Heim, Cal Raleigh, Mitch Garver and Salvador Perez.

Ace hunting in Auction?

The Fringe will be without Sandy Alcantara in 2024 after riding the ace for the last three seasons. Provided Guglielmi leaves a spot open in the rotation, the Fringe could leverage much of their cap space for a front-line starter in Auction. While they might not have the spending power to target Zack Wheeler or Spencer Strider, the Fringe could be players for Max Fried, Joe Musgrove or Justin Verlander to round out their pitching group.

Rumor Central: Soto Move to Yankees Could Spark RDBL Deal

The pending deal of Juan Soto (2/$65) to the New York Yankees could increase trade interest in the RDBL for the San Mateo Oppo Tacos. GM Erik Nielsen has made it clear that Soto is available as he takes over for the departed Mike Friedrich. Soto was hitting .202 with 5 homers and 11 RBIs as the calendar flipped to May, looking like a lock to not return to any RDBL club in 2024 at his $65 figure. He would go on to hit 30 homers with a .290 average the rest of the way, finishing the year with 536.0 points and ranking third among outfielders in scoring. He was one of three qualified hitters with more walks than strikeouts in 2023 and has still not fallen below the .400 mark for a season on-base percentage in his entire career.

The Oppo Tacos are set to bring back a competitive group, but are short on cap space with the likes of Marcus Semien (2/$37), Adolis Garcia (3D/$15) and Chris Bassitt (2/$16) all expected back.

Nielsen has also made Will Smith (3/$30) and Josh Naylor (3D/$15) available in talks according to sources. Smith finished 2023 ranked third in catcher scoring while Naylor hit .308/.354/.489 in 121 games, leaving more in the tank if he can produce a healthier season.

Around the RDBL

- The St. Joseph Jokers have had initial conversations with the Honolulu Hammerheads on right-handers Sonny Gray (2/$2) and Michael Wacha (2/$1) according to sources. While clubs can’t formally announce deals until January 15th when the 2024 RDBL Season officially begins, Heads officials have been unwilling to discuss Gray’s availability with other clubs making some believe that a deal is verbally agreed to. Gray posted the fourth 500+ season of his career in 2023, posting a dominant 2.79 ERA over 184.0 innings, the most he has worked since 2015.

Wacha was one of the league’s biggest surprises, posting 342.0 points with a 3.22 ERA over 134 1/3 innings. It was Wacha’s heaviest workload since 2017.

The Jokers make a lot of sense for multiple pitching additions after producing two of the six worst pitching seasons in RDBL History over the last two years. The Jokers owned a 4.70 ERA in 2023 and have ranked 14th or 15th in Pitcher Scoring in five of the last season seasons.

- The Alamo Short Stacks are expected to be active before Draft Day as the club currently holds a RDBL-high 16 prospects under contract along with four selections in the 2nd Round and six selections in the first 35 of the 2024 Reserve Draft. GM Greg Shelley has plenty of cap space flexibility with the club currently projected to hold $200 in spending power for just nine openings, making them a potential fit for Juan Soto as well as other high-priced options available this Winter.