Tough Keeper Choices in 2024: Peninsula Division

The 11th RDBL Draft is a little over four months away, but the difficult Keeper Deadline decisions are already clear for Roger Dorn Baseball League Front Offices. We are taking a Division by Division look at some of the tough Keeper decisions teams will face heading into 2024 with each of the candidates below also representing potential trade options this Winter.

Burlingame Blue Ducks: RHP Alek Manoah (3R/$5)

The 25-year-old right-hander was demoted to the minors two different times in 2023 and finished the year in shutdown mode following multiple late-September injections to reduce inflammation and soreness in his throwing arm. He can now wipe the slate clean, though, and look to rediscover his early-career form leading into next season. A first-round selection in the 2019 MLB Draft, Manoah compiled a dominant 2.60 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 307:91 K:BB over his first 308.1 major-league innings between 2021-22, adding the Pitching Prospect of the Year and Activation of the Year in the RDBL.

Lake Merced Goutfish: LHP Framber Valdez (2/$48)

Valdez has worked the fifth-most innings of any starting pitcher over the past two seasons trailing only Alcantara, Cole, Webb, and Mikolas, ranking seventh in scoring after another strong campaign in 2023. Valdez is certainly worth the $48 investment for 2024, but with a stable of cheaper starting options on their roster, GM Ryan Atkinson could look to part with Valdez and leverage those savings on their offense. Historically, the club prefers salary cap flexibility which could also come with Rafael Devers (2/$44).

Lunatic Fringe: Reid Detmers (2R/$3)

Detmers delivered a surprise performance in 2022 by pitching a perfect game and posting a 3.77 ERA for the season while looking like a potential breakout candidate in 2023. Things didn't come together as planned as the lefty posted a 4.48 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 168:60 K:BB across 148.2 innings. He found an extra tick on his fastball in 2023 (94.4 mph) and upped his strikeout rate to 26.2 percent, but a 9.3 percent walk rate and 1.15 HR/9 both took a step back from the previous season. The Angels lack any real rotation depth, especially with Shohei Ohtani likely departing via free agency, which should lock Detmers in for regular starts again in 2024. Detmers will turn 25 years old in July and still has some upside, but he's currently behind a strong group of Fringe rotation options that could make his return difficult to envision.

Maltese Falcons: RHP Seth Lugo (2FA/$5)

Seth Lugo, long a multi-inning reliever, was a full-time starter in 2023 for the first time with mixed results. He finished the season with solid ratios, but a decline in strikeouts and wins in just 8 of his 33 starts limited his overall fantasy value. Lugo has long been known for his high spin rate pitches, but his two primary offerings did not perform the same as a starter as they did when he came in from the pen. The league hit .171 off his fastball and .159 off his curveball in 2022, but those numbers jumped to .247 and .280 last year when he worked as a starter despite both pitches maintaining their high spin rates. Lugo's velocity dipped a bit working in the rotation as well. Overall, he produced a solid 327.0 point season in 2023 and is in line for a multi-year deal from a new club after opting out of his contract with the Padres.

San Mateo Oppo Tacos: C Will Smith (3/$30)

Smith was on his way to a huge season as he went into the break with a .279/.396/.494 triple-slash line with 13 homers and 46 RBIs, but hit .242/.320/.381 with just 6 homers and 30 RBIs after the break. Overall, Smith ranked third in scoring among catchers, trailing only Adley Rutschman and William Contreras. The $25-30 range has seemed to be the sweet spot for top end Free Agent catchers in the RDBL over the last five years, making Smith worth the contract but far from an overwhelming value making his market an interesting one to follow this Winter.

3 Up, 3 Down: 'Crats Sweep Wave of Positive News

While the Major League Baseball Winter Meetings have been quiet, thanks in large part to clubs waiting for Shohei Ohtani's destination, news continues to flow out of Nashville that will change values across the Roger Dorn Baseball League. The big winner over the last week are the Las Vegas Aristocrats who look to be building quite a strong foundation heading into 2024, sweeping the 3 Up category with positive news up and down their roster.

Here's the latest 3 Up, 3 Down as we start Day 2 of the Winter Meetings.

OF Jackson Chourio (Minors), Las Vegas Aristocrats

The Brewers have officially announced that they have signed outfield prospect Jackson Chourio to an eight-year extension that runs through 2031 plus two club options for 2032 and 2033. Previous reporting has indicated the guarantee is $82MM, with the options each valued at $25MM. There are also some unknown incentives, which could allow him to max out at $142.5MM if he hits them all and both options are picked up. The options come with $2MM buyouts.

The deal is the largest ever offered to a player prior to their major league debut, surpassing the six-year, $50MM guarantee the White Sox gave to Luis Robert Jr. prior to the 2020 season. While Chourio, 19, has played just six games above the Double-A level to this point in his young career, it’s easy to see why this level of confidence in the youngster. Chourio is a consensus top-three prospect in the sport, with only Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday ranked above him consistently by prospect outlets. The deal will keep Chourio under contract through at least 2030 while extending his potential window of team control through 2032, his age-29 season.

Chourio signed with Milwaukee out of Venezuela for a $1.8MM bonus back in 2021 and immediately made an impression during his professional debut with a .286/.386/.447 slash line in 45 Dominican Summer League games at just 17 years old. His stateside debut the following season went even better as the youngster slashed a phenomenal .288/.342/.538 in 439 trips to the plate split between the Single-A, High-A, and Double-A levels. That performance already made Chourio a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport prior to the 2023 season, and he did little to disprove his status among the game’s elite prospect talents, slashing .280/.336/.467 in 559 plate appearances in his return to Double-A before his aforementioned cup of coffee in Triple-A. While he received just 24 plate appearances at the minors’ highest level, Chourio did not look overmatched with a slash line of .333/.375/.476.

With Chourio entering the 2024 season under guaranteed contract, there will be little incentive for the Brewers to send him back to Triple-A to start the regular season so long as he doesn’t look overmatched during big league camp this spring. That could create an interesting call for the Las Vegas Aristocrats who made Chourio the second overall pick in the 2023 Reserve Draft behind Roki Sasaki.

RHP Mason Miller (2FA/$5), Las Vegas Aristocrats

In meeting with the media Monday, General Manager David Forst suggested the A’s were planning to move 'Crats right-hander to the bullpen, potentially as a closer, for the ’24 season (via Gallegos). One of the hardest throwers in the sport, Miller has been limited by injuries as a professional. He pitched only 39 1/3 innings over parts of three minor league seasons and was limited to 33 1/3 frames during his MLB debut this year, missing a good chunk of time with forearm tightness. A relief role will allow the A’s to keep a close watch on his workload next season, although Forst left open the possibility of stretching him back out as a starter in 2025. Miller appeared out of the bullpen in 2023, allowing the 'Crats to use him as a RP Keeper with higher upside later in the year if he indeed returns to the rotation.

RHP Hurston Waldrep (Minors), Las Vegas Aristocrats

President of Baseball Operations Alex Anthopoulos, speaking to MLB Network Radio, had high praise and lofty expectations for one of Atlanta's pitching prospects - 2023 1st rounder Hurston Waldrep. Speaking to MLB Network Radio, he expressed confidence in Waldrep's stuff being able to contribute next season.

Waldrep, 21, was Atlanta's 1st round selection last year, coming in at #24 overall out of the University of Florida and was selected by the 'Crats in the third round of the 2023 Reserve Draft. He had the fastest progression through the minor leagues of any pitcher drafted in 2023, finishing his season in AAA after eight starts and a 1.53 ERA. When you combine his college production last season with his time in the minors, he pitched 131 innings with 197 strikeouts and 73 walks in 2023.

2B Luis Garcia (2R/$3), Burlingame Blue Ducks

Other news being reported is that Luis García is not guaranteed the starting 2B job despite being just 23 years old with the team not playing to compete right away. That could put his potential spot on the Ducks Keeper Roster in limbo. Here is a quote from Dave Martinez (per Andrew Golden on X)

“Yeah, look, my message to him was are no guarantees in Spring Training. You got to come and fight for a job. I think I sent the message to him when we sent him down. And it hurt me because I love the kid. But he’s got to get better. He’s going on his fourth year now with us, and I know what the upside is with Luis, but we got to get it out of him. He’s got to be consistent.” Per Nationals manager Dave Martinez

Luis García was sent down for part of 2023. Before he was sent down he hit .259 with a lackluster .656 OPS in 407 PA. The ability to limit strikeouts was there (12.5% K%). After coming back up he rounded out the season hitting .304 with a notable gain in OPS (up to .867). It was a very small sample of just 75 PA but at least it was an improvement.

C Luis Campusano (2R/$3), Alamo Short Stacks

The Padres and representatives for free agent catcher Gary Sánchez are engaged in discussions about a potential new contract, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. There’s no indication a deal is imminent, although Acee suggests a potential contract could land in the $6-8MM range on an annual basis. That would be tough news for the Stacks as the leash for 2R/$3 backstop Luis Campusano would tighten.

San Diego needs to add a second catcher in some capacity. The Padres have made clear they’re going to turn the primary job to 24-year-old Campusano, who’s coming off a .319/.356/.491 showing through 49 games. Campusano and Brett Sullivan are the only catchers on the 40-man roster. In addition to Sánchez’s free agency, the club non-tendered Opening Day starter Austin Nola after a rough 2023 campaign.

Mets Third Base Options (Mauricio, Baty)

Despite the position’s relative uncertainty, Stearns made clear that the Mets are comfortable with their internal options at the hot corner and do not plan on adding additional options to the club’s mix, which currently includes youngsters Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio as well as recent addition Joey Wendle. Sherman suggests that the club views Wendle as a utility man, suggesting he’s more likely to be ticketed for a bench role with the club than the opening day job at third base. That would leave Baty, Vientos, and Mauricio headed into spring training with a shot at taking over as the club’s regular third baseman. For his part, Stearns suggested that there’s no internal favorite between that trio for the position which might leave each of their RDBL General Managers stuck without an activation.

Baty (Las Vegas Aristocrats) was the club’s starting third baseman for much of the 2023 season but struggled to a .216/.281/.331 slash line in 318 trips to the plate before the club decided to option him back to Triple-A in early August. Baty returned to the big league club in September but saw his struggles continue as he slashed an anemic .194/.216/.292 during the season’s final month. Still, as a former first-round pick and consensus top-30 prospect in the game with a career .981 OPS at the Triple-A level, it’s easy to see why the club could be willing to give Baty another shot as the regular third baseman in his age-24 season next year. That’s especially true given Baty’s .300 xwOBA in 2023, which greatly outstripped his actual production this season, which left him with a meager .266 wOBA.

Mauricio (Lake Merced Goutfish), who won’t celebrate his 23rd birthday until April, is both the youngest of the trio and the most inexperienced at the big league level. Once considered a top-50 prospect in the league, Mauricio’s star lost some of its shine after a rough 2022 season where he posted an OBP of just .296 at the Double-A level. Fortunately for Mauricio, his 2023 performance helped to quell doubts about his ability as he slashed a much stronger .292/.346/.506 in 116 games with Syracuse this season. That earned him a brief call-up to the big leagues this season, though he struggled to a .248/.296/.347 slash line in his first 108 trips to the plate against big league pitching. One advantage Mauricio could have in a camp battle against Baty and Vientos is his glove, as Mauricio has more than 3,000 innings of experience at shortstop in the minor leagues and sports an excellent throwing arm that should allow him to handle a transition to regular time at the hot corner without much issue.

Top 10 Pitching Prospects: Yamamoto Value Continues to Rise

We conclude our Top 10 RDBL Prospects by Position Series with pitchers, a group loaded with high-end talent that is ready to dot Roger Dorn Baseball League Active Rosters to start 2024.

The group is headlined by 2023 Reserve Draft pick Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the Lake Merced Goutfish right-hander who is expected to sign a blockbuster deal in the coming weeks after being posted by his Japanese club.

Our Prospect coverage will continue later this week as the 2023 RDBL Top 100 Prospect List is revealed.

1. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Lake Merced Goutfish

Acquired: 2023 Reserve Draft, 2nd Round | ETA: 2024

Absolute dominance has been the storyline of Yamamoto’s 2023 season in Japan following a stellar World Baseball Classic that heightened his profile in the US. Lake Merced Goutfish GM Ryan Atkinson didn’t wait around in the 2023 Reserve Draft, selecting Yamamoto with the first pick of the second round. Set to be posted soon, Yamamoto is in line for a 200M+ deal with the ability to step to the front of the Goutfish rotation immediately.

2. RHP Eury Perez, Maltese Falcons

Acquired: 2022 Reserve Draft, 1st Round | ETA: 2024

The baseball world expected Pérez to debut at some point in 2023, but not nearly as soon as he did. But with injuries to starters Trevor Rogers and Johnny Cueto, plus a revolving door of non-roster arms to fill out the rotation, Miami decided to promote MLB Pipeline's top pitching prospect straight from Double-A Pensacola on May 12. Pérez lived up to the hype. His 2.36 ERA through 11 starts (minimum 50 innings) was the lowest for a pitcher 20 years or younger in the Live Ball Era. Miami temporarily shut him down before the All-Star break in order to monitor his workload, then brought him back on Aug. 7. Pitching through a shoulder injury in September, Perez saw a dip in his numbers but nothing damaging enough to take the shine off the league’s most high valued young asset.

3. RHP Paul Skenes, Burlingame Blue Ducks

Acquired: 2023 Reserve Draft, 7th Overall | ETA: 2025

The Ducks placed a heavy emphasis on scouting the college ranks over the last two seasons and it has paid off in spades. Skenes was selected 1st overall by the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2023, reaching Double-A in short starts. While he’s expected to start 2024 in the Minors, a quick move to the big leagues is certainly in the picture for an arm that profiles as a true top of the rotation starter.

4. RHP Grayson Rodriguez, Lunatic Fringe

Acquired: 2021 Reserve Draft, 1st Round | ETA: 2024 (‘23 Playoff Activation)

Rodriguez, entering the year as baseball’s highest-ranked pitching prospect, pitched like it in the second half. In his last 12 regular-season starts from July 22 on, he went 5-2 with a 2.26 ERA. He was even better late in the year, posting a 1.80 ERA over his last six starts while earning a post-season start. Rodriguez should have the handcuffs off on 2024 as he’s already set as an Opening Day activation after being added to the Active Roster for the 2023 RDBL Playoffs by GM Tony Guglielmi.

5. RHP Gavin Williams, Las Vegas Aristocrats

Acquired: 2023 Trade from Idaho Taters | ETA: 2024

In a season filled with many pitching prospect arrows pointing down, Williams pointed straight up in 2023. After beginning last season with High-A Lake County, the Guardians right-hander made 16 starts for the Guardians this season, finishing with a 3.29 ERA, 81 strikeouts, and a 1.26 WHIP in 82.0 big league innings. He’s set to join an emergingly young and talented Las Vegas Aristocrats Active Roster in 2024.

6. RHP Roki Sasaki, St. Joseph Jokers

Acquired: 2023 Reserve Draft, 1st Round | ETA: 2026

The Jokers knew they would have to exercise patience with Sasaki, who remains one of the world’s best pitching prospects. But for a Franchise looking for impactful players to build around, Sasaki’s hopeful arrival in 2026 from Japan holds him back from being higher on this list. Each pitch thrown in Japan is one that won’t add to the Jokers point total for the next two seasons, with the club crossing their fingers the future star remains healthy.

7. RHP Bobby Miller, Lake Merced Goutfish

Acquired: 2022 Reserve Draft, 2nd Round | ETA: 2024

Injuries begot opportunity for Miller, who rose to the top from a talented group of Dodgers prospects and rookies expected to make a leap at some point in 2023. Miller came out of the gates in historic fashion this year, posting a 0.78 ERA in his first four major-league starts. After the league adjusted to him in June and July, Miller responded and went at least six innings in nine of his final 10 regular-season starts. He tallied a 3.25 ERA in that span while cutting his walks from 1.88 to 1.20 from the 1st to the 2nd Half. He’s ready to help immediately in a crowded Goutfish starting rotation that should see some trade activity this Winter.

8. RHP Triston McKenzie, Lunatic Fringe

Acquired: 2017 Reserve Draft, 3rd Round | ETA: 2024

McKenzie entered 2023 as one of the most decorated pitching prospects under a Minor League contract in League History. The right-hander already had a 571.0 point season under his belt, earning the Pitching Prospect of the Year Award in 2022. Activated by Fringe GM Tony Guglielmi before 2023, McKenzie was pulled back on Draft Day due to an elbow injury that limited him to just four starts in 2023. He came back in September with his health in check and looks poised to regain his spot among the top pitching prospects in the RDBL in 2024, entering the year with the most points of any player still under a Minor League contract (971.0).

9. RHP Brandon Pfaadt, Honolulu Hammerheads

Acquired: 2022 Reserve Draft, 11th Round | ETA: 2024

No pitcher saw a bigger rise in value over the MLB Playoffs than Pfaadt who dazzled in five post-season starts with a 3.27 ERA and a 26:5 strikeout to walk ratio. It was a significant step forward after he posted a rollercoaster Regular Season that finished with a 1.41 WHIP. The talent has been apparent, with five 20+ point starts in 2023, but they were matched with six starts of -10 or worse. If Pfaadt can continue to produce at the clip he has in the Playoffs and show more consistency, GM Ross Horiuchi will have a close eye on the eight pitchers ranked ahead of him on this list and certainly let the league know about it.

10. RHP Taj Bradley, Burlingame Blue Ducks

Acquired: 2023 Trade from Cloverdale Clovers | ETA: 2024

It was a rollercoaster of a season for Bradley in his Rookie campaign for the Tampa Bay Rays with plenty to improve on (5.59 ERA, 1.39 WHIP), but plenty to build on as well (129 strikeouts in 104 2/3 IP). Bradley certainly has the stuff to compete at the big league level and reach his potential as a #2 or #3 starter. He'll enter 2024 with a clear cut path to a rotation job for a Rays group that was decimated by injury along with a strong innings count to build on that should have him firmly in the Ducks 2024 plans.