The CBS Sports Projections received a significant update in recent days that we have loaded into the RDBL Projected Keeper Roster. The numbers are clear -- after the additions of Aaron Judge and Justin Verlander this off-season, the Spokane Fightin' Fish enter Draft Day with the best Keeper Roster in the RDBL. Already the only Franchise with multiple Championships, GM Michael Tirabassi's club is a solid Draft away from being the favorite for a third.
What's clear is that 2023 is going to be another all out battle for the six Playoff spots. Only the Mission Viejo Maulers are entering the Draft with clear rebuilding in mind making the early portion of the season an exciting one to follow.
Analytical Rankings
Ranks each category above and produces an average total score
1. Spokane Fightin' Fish, 1.17
2. Lake Merced Goutfish, 4.67
3. Maltese Falcons, 5.00
4. Mt. Diablo Devils, 6.83
T-5. Alamo Short Stacks, 7.0
T-5. Lunatic Fringe, 7.0
T-7. Cloverdale Clovers, 7.83
T-7. Las Vegas Aristocrats, 7.83
T-9. Asti Grape Stompers, 9.17
T-9. Meinert Hops, 9.17
11. Burlingame Blue Ducks, 9.83
12. Mission Viejo Maulers, 10.33
13. Idaho Taters, 10.50
14. St. Joseph Jokers, 10.67
15. Honolulu Hammerheads, 13.0
Fish Efficiency Unmatched
The Spokane Fightin' Fish are loaded with young talent around Judge and Verlander as the club is analytically ranked the most efficient we have seen in RDBL History. The Fish rank first in projected points per $1 spent (71.41), leading the category by a whopping 12.24 mark over the next highest club (Last Vegas Aristocrats). The mark is almost double the amount of the Alamo Short Stacks who currently rank first in overall projected points.
GM Michael Tirabassi's club ranks third in overall projected points while holding $20.33 mark in cap space per opening, the best in the RDBL. Long story short, they already have a Championship-level roster but have more power to add additional support in Auction than any of their competition.
Ohtani Factor
Like he so often does, it's hard to accurately fit Shohei Ohtani into the projection system given his duel-eligibility. Ohtani carries a 913.5 point projection across hitting and pitching so we created a second Ohtani (as he will be used in-season) with a $0 contract to fill the pitching side of the roster to ensure the numbers captured an accurate points per roster spot.
Diaz Fallout
The Lake Merced Goutfish took a big hit Wednesday as Edwin Diaz injured his knee in the celebration following Puerto Rico's upset of the Dominican Republic in the WBC. Diaz will undergo surgery this afternoon to repair a full-thickness tear of the patellar tendon in his right knee, general manager Billy Eppler announced this afternoon. The general timeline for recovery is around eight months, although in certain cases it’s possible to return in closer to six months. Diaz was baseball’s most dominant reliever in 2022, punching out a comical 50.2% of his opponents en route to a 1.31 ERA and 32 saves. It was his second sub-2.00 ERA of the past three seasons — the first came in just 25 2/3 frames during the shortened 2020 campaign — and a strong enough showing to convince the Mets to re-sign the 28-year-old fireballer on a record-setting five-year, $102MM deal just one day after the 2022 World Series concluded.
Alamo Short Stacks
Too High: 3B Manny Machado, 529.0
Just about everything went right for Machado in 2022 and he posted 467.5 points. Only three hitters (Aaron Judge, Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt) exceeded 529.0 points in 2022, making it rare-air to reach that level.
Too Low: IF/OF Miguel Vargas, 244.0
Vargas is set to be the Dodgers primary second base, temporarily spelled by Mookie Betts, making his 81 projected games and 317 at-bats far too low provided he's healthy. Vargas hasn't hit under .300 at any Minor League stop and should be able to carry over those elite bat skills in the big leagues with a major role on the Dodgers this season.
Asti Grape Stompers
Too High: OF Mitch Haniger, 400.5
Expected to start the season on the IL, Haniger will begin 2023 from behind making a repeat of the 400 points season he had last season a tough one to match.
Too Low: RP Daniel Bard, 225.0
While Bard might be a year older and in Colorado, a 100 point drop from his 2022 production seems excessive. Expect a strong 1-2 punch in the Grapes bullpen between Bard and Ryan Helsley.
Burlingame Blue Ducks
Too High: OF Kris Bryant, 465.5
Bryant played in just 73 games last season as he battled multiple injuries that limited him to 268 at-bats. He has passed the 400 point mark just once since 2018 when he posted 456.0 points in 2019 for the Chicago Cubs. A season more in line like 2021 (379.0) seems more in line for expectations.
Too Low: OF Alek Thomas, 268.0
Thomas has been a standout for Team Mexico and looks the part of a future gold glover in Arizona. While that won't help him in RDBL points, it should keep him in the lineup often enough to easily surpass his 268.0 point projection.
Cloverdale Clovers
Too High: LHP Jesus Luzardo, 421.0
Luzardo has yet to throw more than 100 1/3 innings in a big league season, a mark he reached for the first time last year. While we expect a big year, 30 starts and 166 innings pitched seem like a stretch to be counted on in 2023.
Too Low: C Adley Rutschman, 310.5
Rutschman took his lumps early in 2022 before turning into one of the league's premiere producers behind the plate. He totaled 289.0 points last season in just 113 games, making the 21.5 point increase in projection seem quite light for him this season.
Honolulu Hammerheads
2B Kolten Wong, 395.5
CBS is projecting Wong to set career marks in hits, doubles and home runs with the highest slugging percentage in his 11 big league seasons. After posting 292.5 points in hitter-friendly Milwaukee, a 100 point increase in Seattle seems like a stretch.
Too Low: C Tyler Stephenson, 272.5
The Reds plan on managing Stephenson's workload behind the plate but have stated the intention of regular reps at DH which should be a big plus for the Heads in 2023. Stephenson is a lifetime .296/369/.454 hitter, making his .262/.325/.416 seem quite low. Expect a 300+ point season and a potential Top-5 ranking at the position if Stephenson can stay healthy.
Idaho Taters
Too High: RP Brock Burke, 315.0
Just about everything went right for Burke in 2022 as he posted a 1.96 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 60 appearances, many of them of the multi-inning variety as he worked 82 1/3 innings. Relievers, especially setup men, can be as volatile as possible making his jump of 35.0 points in projection from last season seem quite high.
Too Low: LHP Jeff Springs, 370.0
While there are always concerns on a breakout candidate not being able to repeat the performance the following year, Springs has looked every bit the part in Spring Training as he looks to equal or better his 404.0 performance in 2022. Springs has yet to allow a run in 9 2/3 innings and looks poised for another big season in Tampa Bay.
Lake Merced Goutfish
Too High: SS/OF Fernando Tatis, Jr,: 502.5
The projections slot Tatis at 135 games this season, taking into account his 20-game suspension and some days off, making the 502.5 point projection even more outlandish. Tatis posted 444.0 points in 130 games in 2021, but he is now facing a one-year layoff with surgeries to his shoulder and wrist making it hard to predict a repeat of his dominance immediately upon return.
Too Low: RHP George Kirby, 297.0
This seems to be one the lowest projections against expectations in the entire RDBL. Kirby was elite in the 2nd Half of 2022, posting a 3.02 ERA in 13 starts with a 1.17 WHIP. He has as much command as any pitcher in the big leagues and has continued to strikeout over a batter per inning, showcasing elite stuff to match. A 400-point season from Kirby in 2023 is hardly out of view for the Goutfish.
Las Vegas Aristocrats
Too High: C Shea Langeliers, 226.0
The 'Crats don't have a standout player with an outlandish projection, so we'll go with Langeliers who has the starting job in Oakland but will need to fight to keep it after posting a .218/.261/.430 line in 2022.
Too Low: 3B Alec Bohm, 294.0
Bohm posted a .647 OPS and 26.6 percent strikeout rate as a sophomore in 2021, but he took a major step forward last season and had a 17.4 percent strikeout rate and .280/.315/.398 slash line. He played in 152 games and totaled 13 home runs, 72 RBI, 79 runs and two stolen bases. He posted 326.0 points last season with improvement throughout the season, so a dip of 32.0 points seems odd as far as the projections go.
Lunatic Fringe
Too High: RHP Michael Wacha, 397.0
Wacha has topped 400 points once in his career and that was 8 years ago in 2015 which 6.62 and 5.05 ERAs in 2020 and 2021 before posting a 3.32 ERA in 127.1 innings of work last season for the Boston Red Sox. Somehow, CBS sees him making 29 starts, a number he hasn't reached since 2017 while posting the second most innings in a season in his career.
Too Low: LHP Reid Detmers, 286.0
The Fringe are facing a number of difficult decisions before Monday's Keeper Deadline with Reid Detmers possibly leading the charge. Detmers returned from the minors on July 8 last summer and was like a completely different pitcher. After sporting an ugly 4.66 ERA with just 42 strikeouts in 58 innings, he put up a 3.04 mark with 78 strikeouts in 71 innings over his final 13 starts. He credited a reworked slider with fueling the breakout, and he might be even better in 2023. Detmers spent the offseason working with Driveline Baseball and has seen a jump in velocity so far in Spring Training, working more in the 95-97 mph range after averaging 93.2 mph with his fastball a year ago. Detmers already broke out, but there might be even more upside to unlock here.
Maltese Falcons
Too High: RHP Kevin Gausman, 440.0
While we don't think Gausman will fall off a cliff, his 2022 performance (383.0) seems to be more in line with expectations than trying to match his breakout 2021 campaign. The key metric for Gausman is WHIP. He has posted a career 1.28 mark which was carved down to 1.11 and 1.04 in his two seasons in San Francisco. That number jumped back up to 1.24 in 2022 which prevented him for reaching 400+ points despite making 31 starts. Another ~380 point season is well within reason and likely something the Falcons will gladly accept alongside the rest of their elite rotation.
Too Low: 1B Rowdy Tellez, 263.0
The Falcons love Tellez, reportedly having him slotted over Max Muncy for one of the club's final Keeper spots. The affection is for good reason as Tellez is fresh off a strong 315.0 point season in 2022 and looks exceptional for Team Mexico in the WBC. He mashes right-handed hitting and might see some of his opportunities against the same hand be cut into by William Contreras, but the totality of the season should look more like 2022 than the 263.0 point projection from CBS.
Meinert Hops
Too High: OF Bryan Reynolds, 473.0
Reynolds is a nice player, likely right on point for his $38 contract compared to the value he brings. But a 473.0 projection, tied for 11th in all of baseball with Mookie Betts, seems quite lofty. It's not rare air for Reynolds to hit that mark as he posted 481.0 points in his breakout 2021 campaign. But Reynolds will likely be dealing with trade rumors for most of the season and is coming off of a 374.5 point performance in 2022. We'll take the under.
Too Low: SS CJ Abrams, 231.0
A full season of at-bats should let the enormous talent of Abrams shine through. While we don't see a 400 point breakout, Abrams has a good shot at being a 300 point producer this season which would be a boon for the Hops who try and work around the cap space limitations that come with Shohei Ohtani's $88 contract.
Mission Viejo Maulers
Too High: RHP Nathan Eovaldi, 427.0
This is quite the perplexing one. Eovaldi, not the staple of health, carries a projection of 29 starts and 166.0 innings, each of which would be the second highest of his career. He's more or less been a hit per inning profile, but they see a dip there while posting the best WHIP of his career. He's already dealing with an oblique injury that could sideline him for this first start. We'll take the under here.
Too Low: SS Nico Hoerner, 275.5
This one makes little sense. Hoerner showed a ton of positive progress in 2022, posting 297.5 points in 135 games. The drop of projection seems to be purely based on expected games missed due to injury with CBS expecting just 113 games and 427 at-bats. While he'll slide over to second base to make room for Dansby Swanson, Hoerner looks poised for a big season at the plate and we see him outperforming this projection by at least 50.0 points.
Mt. Diablo Devils
Too High: RHP Adam Wainwright, 418.0
Many thought Wainwright would join Albert Pujols and Yadier Molina in retirement, but the right-hander wanted one last season on the mound in St. Louis at age 41. He posted a 4.69 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in the second half and has had mounting concerns about his velocity in Spring Training. Wainwright was just passed over for Saturday's WBC start, further signaling the trajectory he's going down.
Too Low: OF Riley Greene, 290.0
Greene was in the mix for the top overall prospect in baseball entering last season and looked well on his way to an Opening Day spot before a foot injury sidelined him. He took his lumps in 2022 with quite frankly an underwhelming season at the plate (.256/.324/.362) but looks much more comfortable this Spring, ready to fulfill the lofty expectations that follow him.
Spokane Fightin' Fish
Too High: C Danny Jansen, 249.0
Even with Gabriel Moreno out the door in Toronto, Jansen will still face playing time issues against Alejandro Kirk who possesses the better hit tool. There were DH opportunities last season, but those should be swallowed up by Brandon Belt provided he stays healthy.
Too Low: RHP Justin Verlander, 484.0
Forget the age, Justin Verlander has exceeded 500 points in every healthy season since 2016. He looks exceptional yet again this Spring and is coming off his third Cy Young Award when he posted 647.0 points in 28 starts. Looking for yet another 550+ season in 2023.
St. Joseph Jokers
Too High: RHP Tyler Mahle, 397.0
Mahle certainly has the talent, but he's fresh off an injury-riddled season that might prevent him from reaching the innings he needs from being a major contributor. He's never posted a full-season WHIP under 1.22 and his breakout 390.0 season in 2021 came with 180.0 innings pitched, a mark he's unlikely to reach this year.
Too Low: IF Gunnar Henderson, 310.0
Much like Corbin Carroll, who shares the same 310.0 projection, expectations will be well beyond 310.0 points for baseball's top hitting prospect. Henderson had the chance to get his feet wet in 2022 and should immediately prove to be one of the cornerstone pieces for the Jokers moving forward.
