Rumor Central: Five Players Who Could Still Be Moved

We are officially one week out of the 2023 Roger Dorn Baseball League Keeper Deadline when Front Offices are forced to pair down their Active Rosters to 12 players, make calls on potential activations and any cuts to their Minor League system. After a flurry of deals in early February, the RDBL Hot Stove has been anything but warm, but things are expected to pick up this week as the final tweaks are made.

Here's the latest around the Roger Dorn Baseball League with five players that could still be moved before the 20th.

RHP Lucas Giolito (3R/$5), Lunatic Fringe

Giolito seemed like a pretty safe bet to bolster your fantasy pitching staff last season. He was coming off the second 200-strikeout season of his career in 2021 and from 2019-21 collected a 3.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 526/137 K/BB ratio over 427 2/3 innings.

Instead, we saw the right-hander fall flat on his face, posting a 4.90 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 177/61 K/BB ratio across 161 2/3 frames. His strikeout rate was still solid at 25.4%, but down from the 30.7% rate he had over the previous three years. Giolito’s velocity was also down a tick across the board and so were his spin rates, particularly on his fastball.

This February, Giolito showed up to White Sox camp 25 pounds lighter and with a revamped delivery, seemingly intent on bouncing back in 2023 in what will be a walk year. Better conditioning and cleaner mechanics surely can’t hurt, but betting on a Giolito bounce-back is mostly betting on track record. He made one of the largest leaps forward we’ve ever seen a pitcher make from 2018 to 2019 and largely sustained it until last year’s backslide. He’s just 28 and seems worth buying back in on for a club seeking an additional arm.

SS/2B Jorge Polanco (3/$15), Cloverdale Clovers

Polanco had a disappointing, injury-riddled 2022 season for fantasy managers after a standout 2021 season. The 29-year-old slashed .235/.346/.405 with 16 home runs and 56 RBI in 445 plate appearances while spending time on the injured list with low back tightness and left knee inflammation, failing to repeat his breakout 2021 campaign.

The Alamo Short Stacks reportedly have an agreement in place with the Cloverdale Clovers pending Polanco proving his health before the Keeper Deadline, but Polanco has yet to appear in a Spring Training game which has clouded confidence the deal will be completed.

3B Alex Bregman (2/$36), Mission Viejo Maulers

Alex Bregman was one of the top hitters in baseball between 2018-2019, finishing 2019 as the runner-up American League MVP to Mike Trout. A multitude of injuries that impacted his mechanics led to some regression in the 2020 and 2021 season. Bregman was still a good hitter, but far from the game-changer he had been. Finally healthy, Bregman found his mechanics and regained his peak form, specifically in the second half of the season. He hit .259 with an .820 OPS in 2022 with his second-half being noteworthy, hitting .287 with an .894 OPS. He carried that over with a dominant Playoff run, hitting .294 with a .948 OPS. If a club is seeking cost-certainty entering Draft Day, Bregman could be the ideal fit as a safe 400+ point bet for a reasonable contract.

RHP Lance McCullers (2/$1), Lunatic Fringe

McCullers (forearm) threw for the second time Monday in the batting cage, his second throwing session in three days as he works back from muscle strain he suffered in his right arm last month. The right-hander is expected to miss the first couple weeks of the season, but is he keeps progressing, it's reasonable to expect him to return to the mound by the end of April. McCullers has struggled with the injury bug over the past couple seasons, only appearing in eight games in 2022 after nursing a forearm injury he sustained in the 2021 playoffs. Still, at his best, McCullers is an elite value at just $1 and could be a potential fit for the Asti Grape Stompers given the right-hander is under control through 2024.

1B, 2B, 3B, OF Brandon Drury (2FA/$5), Mission Viejo Maulers

Los Angeles Angels infielder Brandon Drury had a surprising 2022 campaign split between the Cincinnati Reds and the San Diego Padres. He slashed .263/.320/.492 and set career highs with 28 HRs, 87 RBI, 87 runs, and two stolen bases in 138 games, the most over his eight seasons. Drury was solid the year before, posting a .274 average and a .783 OPS, but owned a lowly .206 xBA and .348 xSLG. The veteran posted eye-popping splits in 2022 with a .298 average and 12 home runs over 52 contests at Great American Ballpark but hit .240 with 16 homers in 86 games elsewhere. Now, without the benefit of playing his home games in Cincinnati, Drury won't replicate his 2022 numbers.

Around the RDBL

- The Meinert Hops intend to keep Bryan Reynolds (2/$38) according to sources. Reynolds is projected to post the fifth most points among all outfielders (478.5) in 2023 according to CBS after putting up 374.5 points in 2022.

- The Alamo Short Stacks have continued to analyze their options as they look to pivot after losing Gavin Lux and Brendan Rodgers to season-ending injuries. Those plans now include retaining Will Smith (2/$30) due in large part to a barren Free Agent class at the catcher position. If Smith is retained, Yasmani Grandal would become the top available catcher with the backstop expected to be released from his 2/$19 option with the Lake Merced Goutfish.

- The Stacks remain open to adding in additional areas and have reportedly dangled left-hander MacKenzie Gore (Minors) according to sources. Gore got off to an impressive start in the majors, with a 1.50 ERA, a 2.20 FIP, 17 walks, 57 Ks, and a .200/.279/.241 line against in his first nine games, eight starts, and 48 IP for the Padres before elbow issues sidetracked his season. He's set to start 2023 in the Opening Day rotation for the Nationals.

Market Overview: Outfielders

The 2023 Outfield Market is one loaded with stars as Juan Soto, Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Ronald Acuña at the top of the class but at least 10 options who all project to exceed 400 points this season. Additionally, the Activation Class is as star-studded as ever with Julio Rodriguez, Corbin Carroll, Michael Harris and Riley Greene all set to done RDBL uniforms on Opening Day.

Remaining on the prospect front, Jackson Chourio continues to try and play his way into the 1.1 conversation as the St. Joseph Jokers mull their top overall selection in the Reserve Draft.

​Top RDBL Free Agents	Top Trade Candidates
1. Juan Soto, Padres 2. Mike Trout, Angels 3. Mookie Betts, Dodgers 4. Ronald Acuña, Braves 5. George Springer, Blue Jays	1. Ian Happ (2/$13), Falcons 2. A. Benintendi (2/$10), Falcons 3. N. Castellanos (3/$26), Clovers
Top Available Prospects	Top RDBL Prospects
1. Jackson Chourio, Brewers 2. James Wood, Nationals 3. Sal Frelick, Brewers 4. Oscar Colas, White Sox 5. Evan Carter, Rangers	1. Julio Rodriguez (Fish) 2. Corbin Carroll (Stacks) 3. Michael Harris (Hops) 4. Riley Greene (Devils) 5. Druw Jones (Falcons)
2022 Rankings	​2023 Projections
1. Aaron Judge (Fish), 652.5 2. Yordan Alvarez (Goutfish), 471.0 3. Juan Soto (FA), 442.5 4. Mookie Betts (FA), 434.5 5. Brandon Nimmo (Taters), 413.0	​1. Juan Soto (FA), 617.0 2. Aaron Judge (Fish), 567.0 3. Mike Trout (FA), 515.0 4. Yordan Alvarez (Goutfish), 511.5 5. Bryan Reynolds (Hops), 478.5

Team Needs

With five spots to fill, every team will be on the lookout to add multiple outfielders in the 2023 Auction though the Taters and Fightin' Fish are currently best positioned to be selective with their targets.

Top Free Agent

Juan Soto had somewhat of a down season, at least by his lofty standards, during the 2022 season. The outfielder hit .242 with a .401 on-base percentage, 27 home runs, and six stolen bases in 664 plate appearances split between the Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres. In a vacuum, it was still a strong season, but it marked the first time Soto has hit below .280 in the Majors. Now set to spend his first full year with the Padres, Soto should find much more success in 2023 as much of his struggles may have been down to a .242 BABIP. The 23-year-old's BABIP had never dropped below the .312 mark before. And while his barrel rate (12.4%), xwOBA (.401), and hard-hit rate (47.4%) all dropped a bit from his 2021 numbers, they were still elite. All three finished in the 86th percentile or better in the league. In short, an even more productive season may be coming for Soto, who should also see an uptick in RBI opportunities. After collecting just 62 in 2022, the slugger will spend the entirety of the 2023 season hitting in a lineup that will also feature Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts, with Fernando Tatis Jr. set to return during the 2023 season as well. Fantasy managers shouldn't think twice about drafting the former National as a top-10 pick.--Ben Rosener - RotoBaller

Under the Radar Free Agent

Boston Red Sox outfielder Masataka Yoshida is poised to make a big impact after signing a five-year, $90 million contract. The Japanese star generated plenty of interest as soon as he was posted and ultimately settled on signing with Boston. Yoshida's 2023 NPB stats included an otherworldly .335/.447/.561 slash line with 21 homers, 89 RBI, 82 walks, and just 42 strikeouts. He put the ball in play and reached base at an impressive clip, all while keeping strikeouts to an absolute minimum. The left-hander has drawn comparisons to on-base machine and fantasy hero Luis Arraez; if Yoshida could post Arraez-like results, fantasy managers would be absolutely thrilled.

Top Trade Candidate

The Falcons remain open to discussing Chicago Cubs outfielder Ian Happ who had arguably his best full offensive season in 2022. He set a career-high with a .271 batting average, hit 17 bombs, stole nine bases, and had 72 runs and RBI. Many of Happ's metrics weren't pretty, but he still hit the ball with force consistently (65th percentile average exit velocity), and his 6.5% barrel rate almost has to progress towards his career rate of 10.3%. Ground balls have been a problem for a while, but he still hit 54 homers over 363 games from 2020-2022 while running a ground ball rate above 47% which should be aided this season by the shift ban.

Top Prospect Available

Jackson Chourio was the breakout star of the minor-league season in 2022. Despite playing the entire campaign as an 18-year-old, he hit .288/.342/.538 with 20 home runs and 16 stolen bases split across three levels, including a cameo at Double-A. Chourio is a fantastic athlete with a dynamic (and well-above-average) power-speed combination who should have more room to add muscle to his frame as he matures. He did strike out in more than 26 percent of his plate appearances, though it's easy to forgive him for that based on his youth; he was four years younger than his average opponent in High-A, and six years younger in Double-A. There's a strong chance Chourio ends the year ranked as the best prospect in the game -- provided, of course, he hasn't forced the Brewers to push him along to the majors by then. He's currently in the mix for the top overall pick in the Reserve Draft which is currently held by the St. Joseph Jokers.

Top RDBL Prospect

Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez walked away with the Rookie of the Year Award easily after posting a sweet .282/.343/.505 slash line while adding 28 homers and 25 steals. Now we have an uber-talented player at the age of 22 with an improving lineup behind him, and he's already shown the ability to dominate Major League pitching. He swings the bat with incredible force (117.2 max exit velocity, 51% hard-hit rate) and limits the strikeout enough (26% K%) to post great numbers all across the board. He enters 2023 as one of the best values in the RDBL for the Spokane Fightin' Fish who added Aaron Judge and Justin Verlander this off-season to an already loaded roster.

Market Overview: Shortstop

The top five projected players with shortstop eligibility are set return to RDBL clubs, but plenty of depth remains in the 2023 Free Agent class at the position. Francisco Lindor tops the class, but the likes of Carlos Correa, Corey Seager and Marcus Semien follow closely behind as candidates to receive the top contract at the position.

The Cloverdale Clovers have cornered the market in the Minors at shortstop with three of the top five prospects at the position led by the electric Elly De La Cruz while also getting set to active Oneil Cruz.

​Top RDBL Free Agents	Top Trade Candidates
1. Francisco Lindor, Mets 2. Carlos Correa, Twins 3. Corey Seager, Rangers 4. Marcus Semien, Rangers 5. Gleybar Torres, Yankees	1. Tommy Edman (3/$6), Goutfish 2. Jorge Polanco (3/$15), Clovers 3. Ha-seong Kim (2/$1), Maulers
Top Available Prospects	Top RDBL Prospects
1. Jackson Merrill, Padres 2. Ezequiel Tovar, Rockies 3. Colson Montgomery, White Sox 4. Masyn Winn, Cardinals 5. Zach Neto, Angels	1 Elly De La Cruz, Clovers 2. Anthony Volpe, Clovers 3. Jordan Lawlar, Grapes 4. Marcelo Mayer, Taters 5. Marco Luciano, Clovers
2022 Rankings	​2023 Projections
1. Trea Turner (Jokers), 466.5 2. Bo Bichette (Devils), 432.5 3. Xander Bogaerts (Clovers), 428.5 4. Francisco Lindor (FA), 428.0 5. Dansby Swanson (Falcons), 414.5	​1. Fernando Tatis (Goutfish), 480.5 2. Trea Turner (Jokers), 450.5 3. Xander Bogaerts (Clovers), 446.0 4. Bo Bichette (Devils), 425.0 5. Tim Anderson (Goutfish), 403.0

Team Needs

Alamo Short Stacks, Idaho Taters, Honolulu Hammerheads, Mission Viejo Maulers, Burlingame Blue Ducks

Top Free Agent

Francisco Lindor's first year with the Mets in 2021 was the worst of his career, but he rebounded last season with a 127 wRC+ in 161 games. The 29-year-old totaled 26 home runs, 107 RBI, 98 runs and 16 stolen bases, and it's the first time in his career he's driven in more than 100 runs. The shortstop's resurgence played a major role in pushing New York to 101 wins and back to the playoffs, as he looked more like the player he was for Cleveland from 2017-19 than the player the Mets got in Year 1. However, Lindor also had a career-worst 18.8 percent strikeout rate and career-high .301 BABIP, which could temper expectations on him building on the 2022 production.

Under the Radar Free Agent

Ezequiel Tovar has only played nine games in the majors and five games at Triple-A, but the Rockies have been invested in him as their shortstop of the future since they bought him a house in 2020 when he couldn't return home to Venezuela during the pandemic. He had impressed at times in the minors prior to last season, most notably logging a 119 wRC+ as a 19-year-old at Single-A in 2021, but 2022 was certainly his breakout campaign. Tovar hit .318/.386/.545 with 13 home runs, 17 steals on 20 attempts and a 64:25 K:BB in 66 games as one of the youngest players at Double-A. Hip and groin injuries sidelined Tovar from late-June until mid-September, when he returned and went directly to Triple-A for a week before spending the final two weeks of the year with the big club. An over-aggressive approach has been the one offensive knock on Tovar, but so far he has mostly made it work. There's a chance he goes through a significant adjustment period against MLB pitching as a 21-year-old, but it seems pretty clear the Rockies will give him every opportunity in spring training to break camp as the starting shortstop which is further evident following the injury to Brendan Rodgers. Tovar isn't a burner (57th percentile sprint speed) and doesn't hit the ball very hard (22.5 Hard% in the minors, 106 mph max EV in the majors), but he has been productive in games while being extremely young for most of his minor-league levels.

Top Trade Candidate

Lake Merced Goutfish second baseman Tommy Edman has become one of the most prominent base stealers in the game over the last couple of seasons, swiping 62 bases the previous two years, including 32 in 2022. He did this with 86th-percentile sprint speed and was caught only three times. Edman's value wasn't just dependent on his baserunning, though, as he hit .265, scored 95 runs, and swatted 13 home runs while driving in 57. The 27-year-old saw career highs in multiple power metrics such as barrel rate (6.2%), exit velocity (88.6 MPH), and hard-hit rate (37.8%). If he can pull the ball more than 20.8% on flyballs and closer to his career mark of 24.6%, he might crack 15 HRs for the first time. Edman can easily maintain his numbers from a season ago, especially if he bats second, as projected which make him an appealing trade candidate if GM Ryan Atkinson finds a match on the market.

Top Prospect Available

Jackson Merrill showcased one of the best combinations of high-end contact skills and burgeoning power in the minors last year. Indeed, for a time, he had a contact rate (not just zone-contact rate) around 90%! At the same time, Merrill posted quality of contact metrics at or above MLB average (though, with a 59.6% ground-ball rate in Low-A). And, as noted above, the cement hasn’t dried on his frame. Merrill is a fast-rising, top-50 dynasty prospect with substantial offensive upside—.300 with 20+ homers—and even some speed.

Top RDBL Prospect

Elly De La Cruz has near top-of-the-scale power projection and speed, edging out Oneil Cruz, Anthony Volpe, Marcelo Mayer and Jordan Lawlar for this title. Both were on display last year en route to a 28-45 season across 120 games between High- and Double-A. His ungainly 30.8% strikeout rate, driven by poor swing decisions and an aggressive approach, is problematic, however. Yet, De La Cruz has made strides correcting his approach, and his zone-contact rates are actually solid. His frame, questionable hit tool, and raw tools are reminiscent of Oneil Cruz. If he hits his ceiling, he is a potential fantasy superstar.