TRADE: Falcons Use Excess to Land Robbie Ray from Grapes

The Maltese Falcons deep crop of Keeper options paid off again Thursday as the club struck a deal to make a major addition to their starting rotation. The club announced the acquisition of left-hander Robbie Ray (3/$5) from the Asti Grape Stompers for first baseman Anthony Rizzo (2/$17) and outfielder Mitch Haniger (3/$11).

Fresh off winning the AL Cy Young with Toronto in 2021, Robbie Ray joined Seattle on a five-year, $115 million deal helped his new team break a 20-year playoff drought. However, the left-hander saw his effectiveness drop across the board and finished 2022 with a 3.71 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 212:67 K:BB over 189 innings. He surrendered four runs in three frames during the wild-card round, and he then took a loss out of the bullpen in the ALDS without recording an out. It was an unceremonious end to the campaign as he surrendered 21 earned runs in his final 31 frames between the regular season and playoffs. Still, Ray had a solid 8.0 percent walk rate, which illustrates that his improved control from 2021 wasn't a one-year fluke. Now 31 years old, he likely won't be in contention for another Cy Young Award, but he should remain a strong mid-rotation piece for the Mariners if he can continue to keep the walks down which should provide elite value behind Zack Wheeler, Kevin Gausman and Nestor Cortes in the Falcons rotation.

Few clubs had a more pressing need than the Grapes on offense which this deal instantly helps solve.

Likely by design to take advantage of the short right field porch in Yankee Stadium, Anthony Rizzo hit flyballs at a career high 49% clip. It worked as he pulled 16 of his 32 long balls into the right field seats in the Bronx, though Rizzo's 18.4% strikeout rate was its highest since 2014. More flyballs helped sink Rizzo's BABIP to .216, the lowest mark of his career, though the resulting power fueled a 132 wRC+, his best since 2019. Rizzo's contact and hard-hit rates remain solid, but he's approaching the age where skills start to decline. He re-upped with the Yankees on a two-year deal with a buyout/club option for a third year, so the short porch will once again be a bullseye. The elephant in the room is Rizzo has been one of the most shifted players and with the new rules, he could benefit.

Mitch Haniger had a monster season in 2021 two years ahead of free agency, but he followed that up with the kind of year which reminded us of his fragility as he headed into free agency missing over 100 games with a high ankle sprain after fouling a ball off his instep in late June. The pre-injury numbers were mostly in line with non-2021 efforts but not the type of season a 31-year old pending free agent wanted to hit the open market with on his resume. The Giants still saw a clear everyday middle-of-the-order hitter, giving Haniger a three-year $43.5 million deal, and the fact that he is a righty on that type of deal should lock in playing time even on the platoon-happy Giants. It's actually a park upgrade for Haniger, as Oracle Park ranks as a slightly above-average park for righty hitters (per Baseball Savant), while T-Mobile Park in Seattle ranks second-worst for righties.

TRADE: Clovers, Ducks Agree to Four Player Deal

The Cloverdale Clovers and Burlingame Blue Ducks quietly executed a four player deal Thursday morning with the Clovers acquiring right-hander Cristian Javier (3/$6) and reliever Jhoan Duran (2FA/$5) from the Ducks for prospects Taj Bradley (Minors), Alek Thomas (Minors) and 1st Round (7th Overall) and 2nd Round (22nd Overall) picks.

After throwing only 101.1 innings in 2021, Cristian Javier started the year in the bullpen with the intention of conserving innings for the playoffs. The plan worked perfectly as Javier ended up starting 25 of his 30 appearances, compiling 148.2 frames before dominating in the postseason. He posted 489.0 points in 2022 and carries a 502.0 projection for 2023.

The addition of Javier will mark a full starting rotation for the Clovers entering the 2023 Draft with Michael Kopech (2R/$3), Miles Mikolas (2D/$5), Tyler Glasnow (2/$2), Dustin May (2/$1) and Jesus Luzardo (3R/$5) rounding out a group who is owed just $22 in 2023. That should make GM Chris Shelley a heavy favorite to land two major impact bats in Auction.

Jhoan Duran impressed the Twins during spring training and made the Opening Day roster as part of the bullpen. It was a role change for the career-long starter, but the rookie adapted quickly and was dominant from the outset. Duran threw a league-leading 392 pitches at 100 mph or greater while averaging a ridiculous 101 mph on his 4-seamer. He complimented his fastball with a knee buckling curve (49.7% whiff percentage) that served as his primary strikeout pitch, leading to a 33.5% strikeout rate. Duran also induced plenty of ground balls (61%) while limiting his free passes (6%) to finish with impressive ratios. With Minnesota struggling to hold leads in the late innings, Duran earned high leverage opportunities rather quickly. He tallied 18 holds on the season along with eight saves, making him increasingly valuable with the addition of 1.0 points in the RDBL for holds.

The Ducks were the lone club shut out of each of the four Top 100 Prospect Lists which changes with their addition of prized right-hander Taj Bradley. Bradley put up an ERA north of 2.00 for the first time since 2019 when he logged a 3.66 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 53:15 K:BB in 12 starts (59 innings) at Triple-A. His 177.2-inning stretch from Single-A to High-A to Double-A across 2021 and 2022 where he kept his ERA under 2.00 with a 0.92 WHIP and 211:49 K:BB is one of the best prolonged statistical runs a pitching prospect has had in recent memory. All the while, Bradley has had his top two pitches down -- a mid-90s fastball with good life and a hard cutter that eats hitters up. He still hasn't added a reliable third offering, but his athleticism and command are well ahead of the typical 21-year-old starting pitcher. The Rays enter the season without need of Bradley's services in the rotation, so he should return to Triple-A for at least a month or two to try to develop a third pitch he can use when he makes his big-league debut this summer.

Alek Thomas opened the season with Triple-A Reno, but after posting a .936 OPS in 27 games, he was called up to the Bigs. Thomas also ended the season with the Aces as he was sent down towards the end to work on pitch recognition. Thomas' game is frequently putting the ball in play, mostly on the ground. Through August 31, he recorded a .285 BABIP. However, it plummeted to .146 in September, prompting his demotion. With limited power and speed, Thomas needs grounders to find holes to be productive. His defense is good, but he'll need to hit to sustain playing time in a crowded and talented Diamondbacks outfield.

With the addition of the 1st and 2nd Round Picks, the Ducks are now set to hold four of the top 26 selections in the 2023 Reserve Draft.

TRADE: Stacks, Falcons Swap Bart for Lux

The Alamo Short Stacks and Maltese Falcons completed a simple two-player swap on late Wednesday night with the Stacks acquiring infielder Gavin Lux (2R/$3) from the Falcons for catcher Joey Bart (Minors).

Lux was quietly pacing towards a breakthrough season with a .297/.373/.439 line through August 22. He then was bothered by neck and back issues, dropping his numbers to .162/.197/.191 line for the rest of the season. Lux hit fewer fly balls and his HR/FB dropped to a career-low 6.2%, but the added groundballs fueled a career-best .341 BABIP. Lux knocked a career-high 20 doubles, so despite a dip in home runs, his ISO and slugging were new personal bests.

With a cleared out Dodgers depth chart, Lux is slotted in as the everyday shortstop in Los Angeles which was a position of need for the Stacks after Brendan Rodgers lost eligibility there. The move to add Lux could signal the release of catcher Will Smith (2/$31), saving the Stacks $28 in cap space for the 2023 Auction.

The Stacks now project to have seven openings, two of which are relievers, for $133 in cap space. The $19.00/opening is the second highest in the RDBL, only trailing the Lake Merced Goutfish ($20.00/opening).

The retirement of Buster Posey opened the path to a starting role for Joey Bart, but the young catcher was unable to take advantage and had a .215/.296/.364 slash line with 11 home runs and 25 RBI in 97 games. He had a 38.5 percent strikeout rate but made strides defensively and was above average behind the plate. Barring a standout performance in spring training, Bart figures to open 2023 splitting catching duties with Roberto Perez (who signed with the Giants in January) but will be given lots of rope to run with the primary role. His approach improved in the second half while also favoring his home park (.254/.336/.426 at Oracle vs. .180/.260/.309 on the road).

The move to add Bart likely spells the release or trade of Jonah Heim (2FA/$5), allowing the Falcons to fill one of their two Keepers spots with an activation. The move and subtraction of Lux will likely push two of Sonny Gray (2/$22), Max Muncy (3/$17) and Mitch Haniger (3/$11) back into the plans for 2023 though the Falcons appear far from done making moves.