- Greg Shelley
- Jan 19, 2023
- 10 min read
Updated: Mar 20, 2023
With a little under 70 days until the 2023 Roger Dorn Baseball League Draft, Front Offices are picking up steam in their preparations for the league's 10th season of play. For the first time in Franchise History, the St. Joseph Jokers will select first overall after obtaining the Lake Merced Goutfish's 1st Round selection in a mid-season deal last year.
The Mock Drafts have never been more difficult to predict following the addition of the 1D/$5 contract in 2022 for Reserve Draft selections, giving RDBL clubs the option of retaining Major League selections for a third season of control at $15. We saw the addition increase the value of Michael Conforto last season as the Idaho Taters selected the outfielder 7th overall while Merrill Kelly (18th Overall) looks like a major value for the Mt. Diablo Devils.
While it's impossible to predict who will slip through the Auction Draft and into the Reserve Draft, we'll stick with only prospects for Mock Draft 1.0. Additionally, prospects like Logan O'Hoppe and Ezequiel Tovar are solid bets for big league roles and Auction Draft selections, but we'll leave them in consideration as prospects for now.
*1. St. Joseph Jokers: RHP Roki Sasaki, Japan
Acquired from Lake Merced Goutfish
The Approach: The Jokers have their best Farm System in Franchise History, headlined by activation-ready slugger Gunnar Henderson and right-hander Kyle Wright as well as a trio of catching prospects ready for the Active Roster. That gives GM Rick Steen the freedom to shoot for the moon with the top overall selection.
The Player: Sasaki gained fame when he threw a perfect game on April 10th while punching out 13 consecutive batters and 19 overall in the NBP. He finished the year with a 2.02 ERA and 173 strikeouts at age 20 though he comes with an uncertain timeline for a potential move to the US and Major League Baseball, but rumors are swirling that it could come as soon as next year. While outfielder Jackson Chourio is the best stateside option, Sasaki possesses a similar ETA and more upside overall.
2. Las Vegas Aristocrats: OF Jackson Chourio, Brewers
The Approach: The addition of Russ Colburn to the Aristocrats Front Office led to a shift in focus on investing in the club's Farm System, starting last season with an increased focus on the Amatuer level. The club is expected to shoot for upside again with the second overall selection, their fourth time selecting inside the Top-2 in Franchise History.
The Player: Baseball America had Chourio ranked as the #2 prospect in all of baseball to end the 2022 season, so this would be quite the boon for the 'Crats if the Jokers go with Sasaki with the top overall selection. The Brewers signed him in January 2021 and spent that season in the Dominican Summer League. He began 2022 in extended spring training, but was quickly promoted to Low-A Carolina in early May. From there, he took minor league baseball by storm.
Despite being the youngest player in Low-A by several months, Chourio dominated the Carolina League, earning a promotion to High-A Wisconsin, where he continued to dominate. Chourio then earned a final promotion for the last week of the season to Double-A Biloxi at just 18 years old and the youngest player in the league every step of the way. With advanced hitting ability, explosive power, plus-plus speed and highlight-reel defense in center field, he has the tools to be a future superstar and could be on a similar track of current Fightin' Fish star Julio Rodriguez.
*3. Spokane Fightin' Fish: OF James Wood, Nationals
*Acquired from Honolulu Hammerheads
The Approach: Historically, the Fish have aggressively explored the International Market making Roki Sasaki a strong bet to not last past this pick if he's not selected by the Jokers or Aristocrats. With multiple graduates to their Active Roster, the Fish are entering a reset Draft for their Farm System with just six under contract currently.
The Player: A giant slugger with the ability to impact the game in a variety of ways, Wood is more than an oddity as a 6-foot-7 slugger with advanced plate discipline and more bat-to-ball skills than his huge limbs would portend. His combination of plus power and feel to hit in a power forward’s body make Wood one of the most exciting prospects in the minor leagues. Wood was one of the key pieces that went to the Nationals in the blockbuster deal for Juan Soto and at 20, could produce a quicker Active Roster contributor over Chorio for the 'Crats.
4. Lunatic Fringe: SS Ezequiel Tovar, Rockies
The Approach: The Fringe selected a Trevor Story, a young Rockies shortstop in the 4th Round of the 2013 Draft that ended up working out quite well for GM Tony Guglielmi. They could go to the same well in 2023 if Tovar is available and eligible for a Minor League contract on Draft Day.
The Player: A defensive wizard at shortstop, Tovar raced from Double-A to the majors on the strength of his offensive gains and now projects to be the Rockies shortstop of the future. His Gold Glove-caliber defense, growing strength and knack for contact despite an aggressive approach give him a chance to be the Rockies next homegrown standout. Currently penciled in as Colorado's Opening Day shortstop, Tovar could play his way into the Auction Draft with a strong Spring.
5. Asti Grape Stompers: SS Jackson Merrill, Padres
The Approach: The Grapes have a loaded Farm System, placing eight prospects in the 2023 Baseball America Top 100. The group has a heavy 2024 ETA, giving GM Terry Shelley the ability to go for upside regardless of age.
The Player: Shelley spent a few days in the Arizona Fall League, focused on scouting some of the top options set to be available at this pick. Few impressed more than Padres shortstop Jackson Merrill who took big leaps in prospect circles after being limited to just 227 at-bats in the Minor Leagues during the Regular Season. Merrill has a smooth swing from the left side with the athleticism to stick at shortstop. He's ticketed for High-A to start 2023, with a likely ETA of 2025 should all go smoothly in his development.
6. Mt. Diablo Devils: RHP Chase Dollander, UT
The Approach: The Devils have historically struggled to draft and develop starting pitching while most recently seeing a significant drop in value over the last 12 months in their 2022 3rd overall pick Cade Cavalli. That could have GM Jason Watson focused on the hitting front, but the upside of an amatuer right-hander out of the University of Tennessee could change that.
The Player: RDBL Front Offices have dipped into the Amateur ranks with more frequency in recent years, evident by three of the consensus top five picks in the 2023 MLB Draft already locked up (Dylan Crews, Max Clark and Jacob Gonzalez). Right-hander Chase Dollander has a case for leaping over Crews to go 1-1 in July. Not only is Dollander the cream of the crop in terms of college pitching this spring, he’s a metric-darling with unicorn traits that can be extremely tough to find. He checks a lot of boxes. Projection, production, performance and unique data. Dollander has a shot at becoming a frontline starter at the next level with an upper-90s fastball and a plus to double-plus slider. He mixes in an above average changeup that has been unhittable for lefty bats.
7. Cloverdale Clovers: OF Evan Carter, Rangers
The Approach: If the Clovers don't have the best Farm System in the RDBL, then they closely trail the Grapes for that title which has GM Chris Shelley primed for another significant addition after an A+ Draft in 2022 that netted Anthony Volpe, Elly De La Cruz, Taj Bradley and Ricky Tiedemann.
The Player: The Rangers top prospect was a surprise second-round selection in 2020, but has proved the Rangers were wise in the time since the pick. Blessed with some of the most refined plate discipline in the minor leagues, Carter has a well-balanced skill set with average or better tools across the board with scouts confident he will add even more power to his profile. Carter has increased his prospect profile as much as any player in the sport over the last year and would be a big addition to an already loaded Clovers prospect group.
8. Idaho Taters: OF Wyatt Langford, University of Florida
The Approach: From injuries to under performance, the Taters have struggled to find the right approach to their pitching prospect selections, though Gavin Williams looks primed to break that streak. That trend will likely have GM Mike Friedrich focused at the plate with their 8th overall pick.
The Player: The Taters haven't been shy about dipping into the Amateur ranks, adding Jackson Hollday, Jack Leiter, Marcelo Mayer and Gavin Cross over the last two seasons. That makes Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford a logical fit for Friedrich's club. Langford was the most prominent fall riser in the 2023 draft class after turning in improved run times that make a center field profile look more likely. If that’s the case, his bat goes from profiling well to profiling exceptionally. In 2022 Langford hit .356/.447/.719 with 26 home runs (which tied a Florida program record). He led the Gators in all three triple slash categories, home runs, hits, runs, triples and total bases. His 26 homers were best among all SEC hitters and tied for sixth among all Division I hitters. He currently projects as a slam dunk Top 5 pick in the 2023 MLB Draft.
9. St. Joseph Jokers: 1B Kyle Manzardo, Tampa Bay Rays
The Approach: The Jokers can swing for the fences with the top overall pick while potentially pairing that selection with a close to the big leagues option.
The Player: Rays first baseman Kyle Manzardo is more than just a prospect with a close ETA. He hit .327/.426/.617 with 22 homers, 26 doubles, 81 RBIs and nearly as many walks (59) as strikeouts (65) in 93 games between High-A Bowling Green and Double-A Montgomery. While he will need another year of seasoning, Manzardo could push his way into Tampa Bay late in the season and position himself for a 2024 activation, joining an elite young group set to join the Jokers Active Roster this season.
10. Meinert Hops: C Logan O'Hoppe, Los Angeles Angels
The Approach: With Shohei Ohtani under contract through 2024 and Michael Harris set for activation, the Hops are in win-now mode following their most successful season in Franchise History. That will likely play a factor in their approach as they look to pair a close to majors prospect with their current core.
The Player: While Logan O'Hoppe could certainly play his way into the Auction with a strong Spring, he would be a strong value at 10th overall if he happens to start the year at Triple-A. He's a catcher with plenty of offensive prowess and the makeup to be a leader behind the dish, where he has a good chance to stick despite a bigger frame with the ability to make an Active Roster contribution as soon as this season.
11. Burlingame Blue Ducks: C Endy Rodriguez, Pirates
The Approach: The Ducks have historically pursued catching early in their drafts and 2023 offers multiple high-end backstops that would fit their need. While Logan O'Houppe could be off the board and Kevin Parada (Mets) has been attached to the Ducks Front Office, Endy Rodriguez could be the best fit overall from an upside and ETA standpoint.
The Player: Rodriguez followed up a breakout season in 2021 by putting together a fantastic .323/.407/.590 batting line with 25 home runs and 39 doubles across three levels in 2022. He began the season at High-A Greensboro but ended it by going 10-for-22 at the dish in a late-season audition at Triple-A Indianapolis and earning the nod as baseball's 23rd ranked prospect by Baseball America.
As great as Rodriguez’s offense was, he also impressed with his defense, drawing rave reviews for his catch-and-throw skills and handling of pitchers. So, while the 22-year-old’s athleticism has allowed the Pirates to also use him at second base, first base, and the outfield, his future looks to be behind the plate.
As things stand right now, the Pirates are projected to have Austin Hedges as their Opening Day catcher and Tyler Heineman backing him up. In other words, Rodriguez does not face any roadblocks once Pittsburgh decides he’s ready.
12. Mission Viejo Maulers: SS Colson Montgomery, White Sox
The Approach: With just seven prospects under contract, GM Chris Ferraro will simply take a "best available" approach as they look to restock the shelves following a pursuit of a title in 2022.
The Player: Montgomery was the White Sox’s first-round pick in 2021, out of an Indiana high school, and the 20-year-old has shown plus defense at short and an advanced approach at the plate while drawing Corey Seager comps due to his large frame. Montgomery enjoyed an excellent full-season debut in 2022, reaching Double-A and running a 50-game on-base streak over one stretch of the season. He ranked as the 39th best prospect according to Baseball America this week.
13. Spokane Fightin' Fish: SS Zach Neto, Angels
The Approach: The Fish continue to turn out activation-ready players with Julio Rodriguez and Vinnie Pasquantino set to join a roster that already has four players on Rookie deals. With J-Rod under contract until 2025, GM Michael Tirabassi will be looking for a prospect that can help in that window and could find their man on their favorite MLB club.
The Player: After an excellent college career at Campbell, Neto was aggressively pushed in his pro debut and responded in a big way. He reached Double-A and raked, albeit in a small sample size. He boasts five average or better tools, including plusses for his hittability and throwing arm with a chance to be the Angels' long-term answer at shortstop. While he may lack the pure upside of other first-year players, Neto does everything well and could develop into a five-category producer capable of going .280/20/15.
*14. Idaho Taters: OF Sal Frelick, Brewers
Acquired from Maltese Falcons
The Approach: The Taters can continue to stockpile prospects with their second selection of the 1st Round as they look to challenge the Grapes and Clovers for the best Farm System in the league. As with their first selection, look for GM Mike Friedrich to stay focused on hitters with pick #14.
The Player: There’s few things Brewers outfielder Frelick can’t do on a baseball field. The diminutive outfielder impressed in his full-season debut in 2022, climbing three levels, reaching Triple-A and improving his performance at each level. Blessed with plus-plus hitting ability and speed, Frelick looks like a dynamic top-of-the-order run producer. His 70 hit tool and size provide Andrew Benintendi comps, though Frelick possesses more speed that could help in the steals category down the road.
*15. Cloverdale Clovers: SS Masyn Winn, Cardinals
Acquired from Alamo Short Stacks
The Approach: The Clovers can continue to shoot for the moon with their second pick of the 1st Round. Few prospects have as loud of tools as Masyn Winn who would join Elly De La Cruz in the Clovers system as two upside options for the future at shortstop.
The Player: Winn might have the strongest throwing arm in all of baseball. His 100 mph throw across the diamond in the Futures Game garnered plenty of headlines, but the elevation of his offensive game was the most encouraging part of his season. He could be a true shortstop who provides impact on both sides of the ball.
Next Best: C Kevin Parada (Mets), 1B Matt Mervis (Cubs)
