While there are plenty of Roger Dorn Baseball League prospects facing important seasons that could increase or push back their ETA for activation, today we are focusing on the group that is staring a make or break season in the face entering 2021. We identified 10 prospects currently held by RDBL clubs that could be facing their release if they don't produce this season.
OF Tyler O'Neill, Spokane Fightin' Fish
O'Neill is an enigma. Physically, he screams athlete. He has a lot of raw power and speed to spare and looks like he could play slot receiver in the NFL. Those tools have yet to translate into much on the stat sheet as through 450 career PA; he has struck out 34.0% of the time and posted a .229/.291/.422 slash line. On the positive side, both his walk rate and strikeout rate have improved in each of his three seasons at the big-league level, but there is still too much swing-and-miss in his game. In 2020 we saw him rather overmatched at the plate, particularly against the fastball (.155 BA), and breaking balls (.186) continue to be a problem. The Cardinals traded away Tommy Pham and Randy Arozarena in recent seasons to help clear a path for O'Neill, so they hope he continues to improve at the plate to close the gorge between his tools and his production but it's make of break for the outfielder in 2021. A big Spring could push the Fish to activate him fo Opening Day while a bench role in St. Louis to start the year could be the beginning of the end for his time on the Fightin' Fish.
LHP Brendan McKay, Mission Viejo Maulers
A shoulder injury that first popped up in February and ultimately required surgery wiped out the former RDBL 1st Rounder's 2020 season and his chance to progress from a rough rookie campaign. The brief time he did spend on the mound gives little insight into what might have been, as McKay balanced one impressive spring-training appearance in relief with one ugly start. His dominance in the minors (1.78 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 11.8 K/9 over 172 innings) oversells his realistic MLB upside moving forward. From a stuff standpoint, he looks much more like a No. 4 starter than a No. 2 starter, and he also has the shoulder surgery and the Rays' frustrating pitcher usage to contend with. Even if he gets back for part of spring training, it seems likely that he would open the year at Triple-A or in extended spring training. With the Maulers in rebuild mode, they are likely to be patient with eyes on 2022 but another injury-filled season for McKay could mark the end of the line for him on the Maulers.
C Francisco Mejia, Cloverdale Clovers
Francisco Mejia was supposed to be one of the next wave of catchers who could hit, but we are still waiting to see that at the major-league level. He has still yet to eclipse the 400 PA mark for his career, and owns a .225/.282/.386 slash line with a 24.0 K% over parts of four major-league seasons between his time in Cleveland and San Diego. This past season was one to forget for Mejia as he was relegated to a reserve role following the addition of Austin Nola, hit like a pitcher when he was at the plate and was ultimately dropped from the active roster Sept. 19. His average exit velocity fell from 89 mph to 82 mph last season, and he lacks the speed to turn that type of contact into a hit. The Rays value pitch framing as much as any club in baseball, an area where Mejia struggles. All signs are pointing down for the catcher but given his current positional eligibility, the Clovers figure to give him one last chance to impress in 2021 before moving on.
RHP Brent Honeywell, Maltese Falcons
Brent Honeywell has not thrown a competitive pitch in a professional baseball game in three seasons. He tore his UCL in 2018, fractured his elbow in 2019 and had to have nerve decompression surgery in 2020. We've never had a pitcher make it back to the major leagues who has had both Tommy John surgery and subsequently dealt with an elbow fracture. Honeywell is trying to change that history, and if he does so, it will likely be done as a reliever. He looked poised for an activation in 2018 as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball but another limited season on the mound in 2021 will likely spell the end of his time with the Falcons organization.
RHP Forrest Whitley, Meinert Hops
Forrest Whitley looked as good as he has in years during Astros summer camp before suffering an undisclosed arm injury that eliminated his chances of contributing in 2020. Since the start of the 2018 season, Whitley has thrown 137 innings, with 51 of those coming in two stints in the Arizona Fall League. He reworked his delivery in 2019 to improve his posture and lessen the stress on his arm. With three 70-grade offerings and two 60-grade offerings, Whitley still has the best pure stuff in the minors, but it has seemingly been one step forward and two steps back every year since his breakout 2017 season. More than anything, he needs to stay healthy for a 15-20 start stretch in order to make strides with his command and pitchability. Given the inning management across baseball, Whitley is going to get a long look in the big leagues in 2021 and it's time to move from projection to performance for the Hops to continue to ride the Whitley train.
RHP Kyle Wright, St. Joseph Jokers
Wright won the Braves' No. 5 rotation spot to open the season but did not take advantage, posting a 7.20 ERA and 2.20 WHIP in four outings, walking 16 in 15 innings. His lack of control sent him to the Braves' alternate training site until he was recalled in early September. After stumbling in his first start back, Wright reeled off three solid outings to close the season, registering a 2.37 ERA and 0.89 WHIP while walking only six with 14 strikeouts in 19 frames. The strong finish was encouraging, but Wright's strikeouts were low, and he was buoyed by a lucky .176 BABIP. Still just 25 years old, Wright has time to develop into a reliable starter, but the Braves are in win-now mode, signing Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly, to go along with Mike Soroka returning from injury. With both Ian Anderson and Max Fried developing faster, Wright is looking at a swingman/bullpen role for 2021 but will need to take advantage of any starts he receives this year to ensure he isn't ticketed for a pure relief role moving forward.
2B Brendan Rodgers, Idaho Taters
The lack of minor-league games in 2020 meant that many young players got more of a chance at the big-league level than they otherwise would have. Brendan Rodgers was not one of those. He failed to break camp in the majors and appeared in just seven games before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury. The shoulder strain was considered fairly minor, but it was surgery on that same shoulder that cost him the majority of the 2019 season, so there could be reason to worry moving forward. More worrisome, perhaps, is that he's been dreadful at the plate in 102 plate appearances thus far, hitting .196/.235/.227. That's a small sample, but it sure would have been nice to see a player of his talent show at least something. He still has his prospect hype and the potential to one day be a regular at Coors Field to keep him interesting, but he has no clear role and comes with significant injury and performance questions leaving 2021 as a make or break season for him.
OF Taylor Trammell, Mission Viejo Maulers
Trammell was essentially traded for a year-plus of Trevor Bauer at the 2019 deadline and was flipped again for essentially five-plus years of Austin Nola at the 2020 deadline. He is still a noteworthy prospect but has seen a steady decline on Top 100 lists, ranking 97th and 100th on two of the three publications the RDBL uses. Two MLB teams have now decided that moving on from him for help at the big-league level was the prudent move which has raised some alarms. He reportedly improved his plate discipline and defensive instincts while at the alternate training site and the fall instructional league last summer, but he may no longer be a plus runner, which was a big part of his fantasy appeal. With Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic and Kyle Lewis looking like Seattle's clear outfield of the future, Trammell will have to earn any chances he gets at the big-league level with his third pro team.
OF Jesus Sanchez, Mt. Diablo Devils
Picked up from Tampa Bay in the deal that sent Nick Anderson cross-state, Jesus Sanchez made his big-league debut in 2020 but didn't do much to suggest Miami was going to come out a winner in that trade. The 23-year-old went a woeful 1-for-25, a year after limping to a .227/.311/.383 line over 149 plate appearances in his first look at Triple-A. At the lower levels of the minors, Sanchez flashed a plus hit tool and the athletic profile to someday provide above-average power, but as yet little of that has shown up against better quality pitching. The Marlins will be patient with him, and an actual minor-league season could get his development back on track, but barring a big turnaround Sanchez doesn't project to be anything more than a bench bat in the majors which could have the Devils moving on after 2021.
RHP James Kaprielian, Mt. Diablo Devils
James Kaprielian was particularly stung by the lack of a 2020 minor-league season after the former top-tier prospect finally returned to good health in 2019. The right-hander missed the prior two seasons due to Tommy John surgery but pitched well enough in his return campaign (3.18 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 75:16 K:BB over 68 innings across three levels) to earn a spot in Oakland's 60-man player pool last season. He bounced between the alternate training site and the majors, where he logged two appearances covering 3.2 innings and gave up three earned runs. Despite the small workload, there were some positives to take away, including a 14.1 SwStr% and 23.5 K%. Most significantly, Kaprielian's fastball averaged 95.1 mph, suggesting that the elbow surgery hasn't sapped his velocity. Kaprielian will be 27 years old come Opening Day, so Oakland is likely to give him a shot early, though not necessarily in a starting role. Without a strong year on the mound in 2021, the Devils are likely to cut bait after the season.
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