The Burlingame Blue Ducks are still riding high following the 2019 RDBL Championship as they attempt to be the first team in league history to win back-to-back titles in 2021, but GM Ryan Walsh appears to have his work cut out for him following a 2020 shortened season that saw several players plummet in value. Walsh entered the 2020 season with a stable of starting pitching options, a group that was critical to their 2019 run, but all but one of those options saw their stock move in the wrong direction over the last 12 months.
If anyone can quickly pivot and rebuild it's Walsh who might be the most underrated Front Office Executive in the RDBL. The Ducks haven't finished below 7th place since 2014, their first season as an Expansion Franchise.
Value Up
Dinelson Lamet (2FA/$5)
Dinelson Lamet made the leap from a volatile source of strikeouts to borderline ace in 2020. The driving force behind his success was his slider, which he used at a league-high 53% rate -- Patrick Corbin had the second-highest usage at a 40% clip -- and limited opposing batters to a .162 xSLG while generating a 47.4 Whiff%. Lamet also flashed an improved fastball, and combined to use his fastball-slider combination 90% of the time. While it's fair to say Lamet earned his results in 2020, it must also be noted that he limited both walks and home runs at a level he previously hadn't shown. Risk of regression is only heightened by his reliance on his slider and limitations as a two-pitch pitcher. Lamet is expected to avoid surgery on his elbow after going down late in the season, but he is still extremely risky from a health/workload standpoint heading into 2021.
Whit Merrifield (2/$38) Two-hit Whit continues to be a steady producer for fantasy players. It says something when a .282 batting average is a hitter's career-worst effort as was the case for Whit Merrifield in 2020. The low average is not due to him striking out because his 12.5 K% last season was a career-best. It is just that Merrifield puts a lot of balls into play with a high-contact and declining-walk-rate approach, so his batted-ball fortunes pull his average one way or the other. Both in 2017 and 2020, his hit rate was at league average and his batting average was in the .280s. In 2018 and 2019, he had more dying quails, duck snorts and seeing-eye singles which pushed his batting average north of .300. He is a threat to run any time he is on base, and he is seemingly on base twice a game. Models of statistical consistency and health like this are rare; roster with confidence that he continues his course.
Nolan Jones (Minors)
Jones, 2019 RDBL Reserve Draft 5th Round selection by the Ducks, has continued to steadily rise up top prospects lists and looks like a key future asset for Walsh with a skillset that matches the RDBL scoring system. Jones looks like a good three true outcomes hitter in the making, running deep counts already with high walk totals (96 in 2019), showing some power now but with much more projected now that he’s 22 and filling out physically. A strong season in the Minors in 2021 could position the infielder for a potential 2022 activation.
Value Down
Gleybar Torres (2R/$3)
When Gleyber Torres exploded for 38 homers in 2019, there was reason to be skeptical given his ho-hum peripherals. Still, few foresaw the extent of his power dropoff in 2020. After posting a 14.4 AB/HR (17th-best in baseball) the previous campaign, Torres homered only three times in 136 at-bats last season. Per Statcast, his 38.0 Hard% was actually slightly up from 2019, and his average exit velocity stayed relatively constant. So what went wrong? First, Torres rarely barreled the ball -- his 3.7 Barrel% ranked in the 13th percentile leaguewide. Second, he passed on too many good pitches, registering a 69.8 Meatball Swing % -- down 15.1% from his breakthrough campaign. Increased patience led to a career-best 13.8 BB% and 17.5 K%, but the decline in production made it a significant net loss. Torres has the talent to bounce back, but don't be surprised if 2019 turns out to be his peak season.
Shin-Soo Choo (3/$3)
After a remarkably consistent run with Texas, Shin-Soo Choo struggled with health and performance in his contract year, not ideal for someone hoping to embark on their 17th season in the majors. Choo was slowed by calf, oblique and wrist woes during the final month, but even when healthy to start the abbreviated season, his production finally showed signs of decline. His plate skills (K% and BB%) only slightly swooned, but his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate dipped, taking his average and power along with them. For a younger player, that could be chalked up to variance, but for a 38-year-old veteran, it's likely age related. Add in Choo's bouts with assorted injuries, and his days of full-time play are likely over. His splits are amenable to the busier side of a platoon, but even that's questionable. After a career of being an underrated fantasy asset, Choo is now iffy even as roster filler in mixed formats.
Joey Bart (Minors)
Joey Bart was in way over his head last season, as he was not only making a huge jump in terms of the quality of pitching he was trying to hit, but he was learning to be a big-league catcher without much of a support system. Buster Posey opted out of the season, so there wasn't a vet for him to lean on. Bart only had 22 games under his belt at Double-A, so he shouldn't have been expected to excel on offense, even under the best of circumstances. He hit the ball hard 48.4 percent of the time, per Statcast, but every other aspect of his offensive debut was poor. He has plus raw that should manifest much more in games this season, even if it might be a couple years before he hits for a solid batting average. The trouble with betting on a post-hype breakout in redraft leagues is that he could very well open the year at Triple-A to continue honing his craft on both sides of the ball.
Starting Pitching Depth
The Ducks faced some difficult choices entering the 2020 season, making the decision to part ways with Lance Lynn while holding onto Mike Minor, Charlie Morton, Jake Odorizzi and Matt Boyd. While that trio was excellent in 2019 and a critical part of the club's championship run, all three flopped in 2020 with 5.56, 4.74, 6.58 and 6.71 ERAs respectively. If the club moves on from all four, they could be left with just Dinelson Lamet in their rotation who finished last season with an elbow injury.
Early 2021 Keeper List Projection
There's plenty of work to be done for Walsh as both the offense and pitching staff have plenty of room for additions this Winter.
The Ducks haven't been one to acquire or retain major contracts which could have them shopping their steadiest offensive threat Whit Merrifield in an attempt to acquire more depth. As it stands, Merrifield will join Xander Bogaerts, Gleyber Torres and Kolten Wong in a talented infield. Yandy Diaz (2FA/$5) is also a candidate to return but remains in a rotation of playing time due to Tampa Bay's infield depth chart.
The outfield has seen significant hit in value as Eddie Rosario (2/$22) and Shin-Soo Choo (3/$3) are unlikely to return while Randal Grichuk (3/$1) has been pushed to a reserve role with a busy Toronto Blue Jays off-season that included the additions of Michael Brantley and George Springer.
Lamer projects as the only pitcher to return though big springs from Jake Odorizzi (2FA/$5), Charlie Morton (2/$16) and Kenley Jansen (2/$11) could change that forecast.
Farm System
The Ducks don't appear to have any activation-ready assets in the Minor Leagues despite Bart, Zack Collins, Bradley Zimmer and Luis Garcia all seeing time in the big leagues last season. The group is led by Bart and Jones who both look positioned for 2022 activations while Garcia, acquired from the Honolulu Hammerheads for Kenta Maeda a year ago, could emerge as the best of the trio.
After that top group, the Ducks Farm System loses a great deal of luster. Outfielder Travis Swaggerty should move fairly quickly through the Pittsburgh Farm, but has lost some of the ceiling projection that made him a MLB 1st Rounder out of South Alabama in 2018.
Ronaldo Hernandez ranks as their next best asset, but remains probably two years away from a steady big league job in Tampa Bay after producing just a .299 on base percentage in 2019 at High-A.
The Ducks will face some difficult conversations in the coming weeks with the remainder of their group. Collins' value is tied up in his catcher eligibility but has looked more like a DH to pair with underwhelming results to date. Long-time Ducks prospect Bradley Zimmer is likely facing his final days on the roster while the same can be said for Ryan Rolison, Graeme Stinson and Yadier Alvarez.
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