Few teams are anticipating the start of the 2021 season more than the Idaho Taters in the Roger Dorn Baseball League. GM Michael Friedrich took ownership of the club at the conclusion of the 2019 season and have yet to register an official point in the record books. That will all change on April 1st as the Taters look to write the first chapter in their Franchise History.
Friedrich will face his share of tests right off the bat. The current roster is heavily leaning towards the offense, including the majority of their prospects. The looming question in Taters camp will be the status of their highest paid player Paul Goldschmidt (2/$52) and if his production is worth the price in the mind of Friedrich.
Next up is their handling of a talented Farm System with Nate Pearson, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Sean Ryan Murphy and Carson Kelly all seemingly ready to contribute. Do all four make the leap to the Active Roster on Opening Day?
Value Up
3B Ke'Bryan Hayes (Minors)
Hayes was the best rookie in the National League in 2020, not that any voters bothered to check the stats before sending in their ballots last year; his month in the majors was worth 1.6 (FanGraphs) to 1.9 (Baseball-Reference) WAR, putting him ahead of eventual winner Devin Williams by a sizable margin. Hayes is an elite defender at third base who’ll rival Nolan Arenado for the title of best in baseball, with great hands and reads off the bat as well as a plus arm. He’s always been more of a hitter for average than big power, so the 5 homers he hit in September were a surprise and probably not indicative of 30-homer seasons to come. He just hits the ball hard, and often: Had he qualified, his hard-hit rate of 55.4 percent would have ranked ninth in baseball, between two guys named Yelich and Trout. His swing doesn’t have a ton of loft, so there’s the potential for a tweak later on that unlocks big-time power, but as is he should hit for a high average with a slew of doubles. Add that to his defense at third and you’ve got a 4-5 win player even if his homer total tops out in the teens. He has arrived much quicker than expected and looks ready for the third base job for the Taters on Opening Day.
IF Spencer Torkelson (Minors)
Adler certainly left Friedrich a prize in Torkelson who is being routinely ranked as one of the best bats in the Minor Leagues. Torkelson was the first overall pick in the 2020 draft, following a career at Arizona State in which he hit 54 homers in 129 games for the Sun Devils, including a .780 slugging percentage last spring before the world fell apart. He’s an advanced hitter with a fairly simple right-handed swing and plus-plus power now, as he’s already well filled out and quite strong for his age. The Tigers are going to give him a shot at third base but even at first, he projects as an impact bat who’ll hit 30+ homers on a regular basis with a strong OBP in the mold of Pete Alonso.
Value Down
RHP Nate Pearson (Minors)
The hype on Pearson outpaced the production in 2020 and while the future still looks bright, it's a disappointment for the Taters that the right-hander isn't a lock for an Opening Day activation. Pearson’s debut in the majors was tantalizing, but as with his first full pro season in 2018, it was interrupted by injury. Pearson averaged 96.3 mph on his four-seamer, showed a full four-pitch mix, all three of which at least missed bats, although he leaned most on his slider and the pitch wasn’t as consistent as it has been in the past. He’s 6 feet 6 inches and 250 pounds, with a good delivery that he has learned to repeat since the Jays signed him, so in theory he should be durable. Still, he had several fluky injuries in 2018 that limited him to one inning, and a flexor strain sent him to the injured list in late August, after which the Jays used him for just a single relief appearance. If he can stay healthy, there are very few starting pitching prospects who can match his stuff and size, which give him the ceiling of a No. 1 starter. Shaking off that "if" will go a long way for his value in 2021.
3B/OF Miguel Andujar (2R/$3)
When he was acquired from the Meinert Hops, Andujar was thought to be a future pillar of the franchise following his 2018 American League Rookie of the Year. Fast forward to 2021 and Andujar looks all but locked into being released this Winter and undrafted on Draft Day. Andujar struggled to remain in the big leagues during even a shortened season, appearing in just 21 contests. He slashed .242/.277/.355 with one homer and five RBI over that brief stretch. There were some encouraging signs from the 25-year-old at the dish, as he lowered his K% to 13.8 after sitting at 22.4 a season ago. Andujar's power has always been an attraction for most, especially as a young prospect, and he's showcased plenty of power in the past, slugging 27 homers in 149 games during the 2018 campaign, but it remains to be seen whether he can return to that form following an injury-plagued 2019 and an inconsistent 2020. After playing in just 33 ballgames over the last two seasons, it is clear the projected playing time isn't worth a Keeper slot for 2021.
Early 2021 Projected Keeper Roster
The Taters face a series of tough decisions heading in 2021. Most important is deciding if their window of contention is open. If the answer is yes for Friedrich, the club can vault four prospects into the Active Roster while locking in their catching duo for just $2 combined. Adding that group to Trevor Story (2/$38), George Springer (2/$34) and Austin Meadows (2R/$3) is certainly a core that can make noise.
With the Story and Springer salary commitments, the current projection and rumors around the Taters believe they will cut ties with Goldschmidt (2/$52) with a reunion possible on Draft Day for a more affordable price.
The pitching staff is the biggest area of need as Dallas Keuchel currently sits as the only Active Roster starting pitcher on the roster. If Pearson is indeed ready to take the reigns in Toronto, it will be a major boost though Friedrich will likely be on the market for more help before Draft Day.
Farm System
Provided Hayes, Kelly, Murphy and Pearson join the Active Roster, the Taters are still far from barren in the Minor Leagues. Spencer Torkelson will take over the top spot (if he isn't already) while right-hander Matt Manning will continue his ascent to Detroit with a projected future as a top of the rotation arm.
The floor has likely fallen out from long-time Brendan Rodgers who has yet to put together a solid or healthy season in the big leagues with consecutive shoulder injuries casting doubt that it will ever happen.
Jason Groome is a likely hold for the Taters to round out the group. A former MLB 1st Rounder, Groome is set to return to the mound following Tommy John surgery and remains well thought of in the Red Sox organization as a potential big riser in 2021.
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