The Lunatic Fringe were widely regarded as one of the top three rosters in the Roger Dorn Baseball League entering 2020. 12 Months later, expectations are equally high with the Fringe internally viewing 2021 as their best chance at their first RDBL Championship.
The Fringe bring a strong blend of young, proven and cheap assets including Cody Bellinger (3R/$5), Ozzie Albies (3R/$5) and Lucas Giolito (1R/$1) while combining that group with elite values in DJ LeMahieu (2/$4) and Travis d'Arnaud (2FA/$5).
With a strong activation class and salary cap flexibility, GM Tony Guglielmi is ready to push the club's chips into the center of the table as they battle with their bitter rivals, the Lake Merced Goutfish, for both the Peninsula Division and top Playoff seed.
Value Up
Travis d'Arnaud (2FA/$5)
D'Arnaud went from being designated for assignment by the Mets in April of 2019 to batting cleanup in the 2020 playoffs for the No. 2 seed in the National League. The Fringe entertained offers for prior to last season before the shutdown and they are certainly happy they passed on those potential deals. d'Arnaud was the top scoring catcher in 2020 and ranked in the 90th percentile in terms of wOBA, xBA and xSLG and in the 98th percentile in terms of exit velocity and hard-hit rate. His strikeout rate shot up to 27.2% -- his career mark is 18.7% -- but the tradeoff for more quality connections was worth it. He cracked nine homers and added two more during the postseason while slashing .286/.380/.476 in the playoffs. Now entering his age-32 season, Travis d'Arnaud is creating some distance from his past injury woes, though his lengthy injury history should still weigh heavily in any valuation. Regardless of those concerns, a $5 contract makes d'Arnaud a premium asset for the Fringe headed into this season.
DJ LaMahieu (2/$4)
DJ LeMahieu eclipsed his superb first season in New York with a better one, posting a career-best .364/.421/.590 slash line, claiming the AL batting crown and finishing third on the MVP ballot. His 177 wRC+ ranked fourth in the league, and bested both players (Jose Ramirez and Jose Abreu) who finished ahead of him in the voting. He ranked third among qualified batters with an 89.9 Contact% while posting the second-best strikeout rate (9.7%). LeMahieu's barrel rate (2.9%) and average launch angle (2.3 degrees) hardly resemble that of a power hitter, but he took advantage of the Yankee Stadium right-field short-porch -- his 361-foot average HR distance was third-lowest in MLB -- to post a career-best 19.5 AB/HR. Replicating that rate is far from guaranteed, even after signing a long-term deal to stay in New York, but his bat-to-ball skills are elite and make LeMahieu one of baseball's most reliable hitters and one of the best values in the RDBL.
Ryan Mountcastle (Minors)
The Baltimore Orioles eventually called up Mountcastle to the major league team midway through the 2020 season, and he promptly demonstrated why he’s considered a major league-ready bat, hitting .333/.386/.492 with five homers in 35 games. That came on the back of a breakout Triple-A season in 2019 in which he hit 25 homers in 127 games with a .312/.344/.527 slash line. The issue for Mountcastle was where he'd play at the next level, with the Orioles utilizing him mainly in left field before shifting him to first base for the final part of the season. If Mountcastle hits, he’ll be in the everyday lineup with dual-position eligibility boosting his fantasy value. With only a small MLB sample size to draw from, it is easy to overvalue Mountcastle for the 2021 season. But his .333 batting average was a career best at any professional level, despite being inflated due to a .398 BABIP and he looks to be a great value to activate for the Fringe to start 2021.
Value Down
Josh Donaldson (2/$25)
The Twins signed Josh Donaldson to the largest free agent contract in franchise history (four years, $84 million) before last season to add another impact bat. When in the lineup Donaldson delivered with an .842 OPS and a 131 OPS+. However, Donaldson missed half the season as injuries continued to plague him. After playing just seven games, he missed a month due to a right calf injury. He then aggravated the injury the last weekend and missed the playoffs. Donaldson still showed elite power with a 92.8 mph exit velocity and 53.4 hard-hit percentage, which ranked in the top 20 hitters with at least his few plate appearances, according to Baseball Savant. He also added an impact glove as he ranked 8th among third baseman with 11.9 UZR/150. His health remains a concern as he's had chronic calf injuries (missing 38 games with right calf strain in 2017) and played just 52 games in 2018 with a left calf and shoulder injury. Donaldson remains a top power option at third base, but with considerable injury risk which could make him a trade candidate this Winter if the Fringe would like a more surefire bet with their $25 of cap space.
Patrick Corbin (2/$31)
Corbin entered the 2020 season coming off a career-high workload of 225 total innings including the Nationals' World Series run. That's one potential explanation for his diminished fastball velocity of just 90.2 mph in 2020 - the lowest mark of his career. More problematic was Corbin's loss of effectiveness with his slider, one of the best pitches in the league for several seasons running. While he still was able to limit opposing batters to a .198 BA and .366 SLG with the pitch, he managed just a 38.2% whiff rate. In his previous two seasons, Corbin induced whiff rates of 52% and 53.6% with his slider. His 2020 results leave Guglielmi in a tough spot as the lefty was expected to anchor the rotation under his $31 contract which likely applies pressure for a strong Spring Training to reboost the club's confidence.
Jorge Alfaro (2R/$3)
Jorge Alfaro had settled in as a solid mid-tier catcher through the end of 2019, with his strong exit velocities generally offsetting his high whiff rates, leading to a .266/.320/.423 slash line, a perfectly adequate mark for a backstop. His 2020 campaign was a very disappointing one. Limited to just 31 games in part due to a battle with COVID-19, he struggled to a .226/.280/.344 line while hitting just three homers. Small-sample caveats apply, but his struggles appear to have been deserved rather than mere reflections of bad luck. His typically high K% jumped back up to an untenable 36.0%, and he seemingly forgot how to lift the ball, with his launch angle falling to just 2.8 degrees. Toss in some poor framing and you get a rather unimpressive year. Alfaro could certainly turn things around in his age-28 season and given his $3 contract, the Fringe will make that bet in 2021.
Early 2021 Keeper List Projection
The core of the Fringe roster is what every RDBL Front Office craves - young and cheap. The club enters 2021 with extreme faith in their building blocks of Cody Bellinger, DJ LeMahieu, Ozzie Albies, Jorge Soler and Lucas Giolito, a group that's owed just $20 combined this season.
Strong 2020 seasons from Jesse Winker, Travis d'Arnaud and Ryan Mountcastle have the club boasting more depth than they originally anticipated while both Sandy Alcantara and Triston McKenzie look ready to join Lucas Giolito in a talented activation class.
Question marks due follow the club's three highest paid players as Charlie Blackmon (3/$47), Patrick Corbin ($2/$31) and Josh Donaldson (2/$25) are all expected to be heavily scrutinized as the calendar flips to March. In an extreme scenario where all three were moved, the Fringe could have a Keeper Roster of 11 players for just $33 with $227 to spend in Free Agency.
Farm System
When you are set to activate four players with strong big league track records, things are going quite well for an RDBL Franchise as they are for the Fringe. With Giolito, McKenzie, Mountcastle and Alcantara all ready to make the leap, Guglielmi will be facing a barren group that will be led by Michael Chavis. Franklin Perez, Jon Duplantier and Mitch White all have seen their stock plummet and could be facing drops making the Fringe a trade candidate for either picks or prospects this Winter.
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