In many ways, the Maltese Falcons have been the model of consistency in the Roger Dorn Baseball League since its inception in 2013 but 2021 looks like it will provide a unique challenge and potential rebuild for GM Gary Falzon and Assistant GM Erik Nielsen. The club finished in 6th place and captured their sixth cash finish in seven seasons, a RDBL record-high, but the depth of the roster has taken a dent over the last 12 months.
No bigger blow to a roster exists more than Mike Clevinger (3/$8) who was set to anchor the rotation but went down with off-season Tommy John surgery in 2020 while high-priced assets like Matt Carpenter and Tommy Pham flopped. The latter was a key addition in a 2019 blockbuster deal with the Lake Merced Goutfish which saw Fernando Tatis, Jr. head out of town.
Those annual late-season runs have left the Falcons short on young assets as they enter a new phase in their organization. Falzon and Nielsen have rebuilt on the fly before, but 2021 looks to be their biggest test yet.
Value Up
Hunter Dozier (2FA/$5)
After an age-28 breakout in 2019 in which Dozier looked like a budding star for the Falcons, the third baseman managed a dismal .228/.344/.391 line across 196 plate appearances in 2020. He experienced a corresponding dip in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, giving the impression that his struggles were earned. He showed strong plate discipline -- his walk rate swelled to 14.5% -- but failed to make contact with pitches inside the zone. Dozier was diagnosed with COVID-19 shortly after the season began and reportedly suffered from shortness of breath after returning. Clarity regarding whether declining skills or illness were the cause of Dozier's 2020 struggles should come early in 2021, as the Royals are prepared to give him at-bats at first base. Given his $5 commitment, expect Dozier to be back in 2021 with hopes he can return to his 2019 form.
Kyle Hendricks (2/$29)
Hendricks put together another strong campaign as he was one out away from leading the entire league in innings in 2020. He posted a 2.55 ERA while only allowing eight walks in 81 1/3 innings of work, proving well worth the $29 option for 2021. Hendricks has never had an ERA higher than 3.95 or a WHIP higher than 1.19. That type of consistency makes Hendricks an extremely valuable fantasy asset, even if he doesn't miss as many bats as other frontline starters. Early rumors have Hendricks being shopped around the league as the Falcons look to acquire more depth and flexibility. If he does return, Hendricks will slot in at the top of the Falcons rotation.
Bryce Harper (3/$50)
The Falcons acquired Harper in a major deal in December of 2019, shipping away first baseman Anthony Rizzo while netting the Phillies outfielder and activation-ready second baseman Nick Madrigal. The move looks to be quite a boon for the Falcons as Harper returned to MVP-form in 2019 with a 151 wRC+ while walking more than he struck out. Entering 2021, Harper looks the part of a $50 asset and should be a stabilizing force in the Falcons lineup with hopes he has shaken off some back issues that plagued him in 2020.
Value Down
Omar Narvaez (2/$10)
Narvaez was coming off a big offensive year in Seattle in 2019, but the advanced stats showed he was well out in front of his skis and the performance would be very tough to repeat in 2020. Indeed it was as Narvaez looked overmatched most of the short season, and despite walking at a decent clip, he struck out at an alarmingly high rate. The catcher position is short on talent yet again so a return in 2021 at $10 is not out of the question but the .176/.294/.269 slash line in 2020 is cause for concern.
Tommy Pham (2/$30)
San Diego had high hopes that Tommy Pham could help amp up its emerging offense when he was acquired in a trade with the Rays last December. Though the Padres did indeed blossom offensively, Pham had little to do with the transformation as a hand injury limited him to 31 games. When he did play, the veteran struggled to make an impact, slashing .211/.312/.312 and managing only three home runs in 125 PA. Pham's .266 xBA and .457 xSLG suggest he could be due for a bounce-back, as does his impressive 92.9 mph average exit velocity. However, he'll have to hit the ball in the air more often to take advantage of the hard contact -- his 62.2 GB% last season was fifth-highest among hitters with at least 100 PA. Pham's speed and power potential make him an intriguing rebound candidate, but despite being a key piece in that returned from the Goutfish for Tatis, Jr., $30 might be too risky of an investment for 2021.
Mike Clevinger (3/$8)
Clevinger continued to miss bats at a strong rate following his mid-season trade to the San Diego Padres and looked primed to continue as one of the RDBL's most favorable contracts. That all changed at the end of 2020 as elbow issues hindered Clevinger, ultimately leaving a Playoff start in the first inning before succumbing to Tommy John surgery. A release is set in the coming weeks but a return is not out of the question, though he won't see a big league mound until 2022.
Early 2021 Keeper List Projection
The Falcons face a number of difficult decisions as Draft Day approaches both with their veterans and young assets. Can elderly outfielders Jason Heyward and Nick Markakis be trusted for steady contributions? If so, the duo would give the Falcons a big boost as they are owed just $8 combined. An additional jolt could come from the infield duo of Nick Madrigal and Nico Hoerner who are both activation options currently positioned for everyday jobs for their respective Chicago clubs.
The club would be smart to give Hunter Dozier a shot to prove 2019 a better indicator of his talents than 2020 and given the $5 contract, it would be well worth the risk. The same might not be said for Narvaez, though a shallow catchers market could have him back in Maltese.
Hendricks and Tyler Glasnow are slotted in as the only two starters in the rotation with each on team-friendly deals. Glasnow will need to continue to shed walks in order to reach his lofty upside but the Falcons seem ready to wait for a player that has been in their organization since he was picked in the 2nd Round of the 2014 Reserve Draft. The club got a boost in the pitching staff in 2020 as Ryan Pressly was pressed into closer duty in Houston and looks to have the job heading into 2021.
Chris Taylor regained some value in 2020 and looks primed for more consistent playing time with Kike Hernandez leaving the Dodgers making him a candidate to return while Adalberto Mondesi also played his way back into Keeper consideration.
Farm System
Provided Madrigal and Hoerner graduate, the Falcons Farm System will be left to a trio of talented outfielders and a pair of pitchers who have yet to turn the corner.
Trevor Larnach and Heliot Ramos are ranked similarly across Top 100 Lists with each capable of pushing their way to the big leagues in 2021 with the potential for a 2022 activation. Kristian Robinson has lost a bit of luster in prospect circles but is still well-regarded, albeit with a longer ETA than Larnach and Ramos.
Right-hander Brent Honeywell continues to battle arm injuries that has likely already robbed him of his once budding career. 2021 is likely to be a make or break year for the right-hander. Lastly, Cole Winn has dropped off many Top 100 lists but remains an athletic righty who likely deserves another year of development.
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