When you have Mike Trout on your roster, there's always a level of confidence that you can build a winner around him but it will be a tall task in 2021 for GM Garrett Shelley. The club had some intriguing pieces entering the 2020 season that provided Hops fans hope for a Playoff run but virtually all of those assets went backwards over the last 9 months.
The underperformance will clear out a great deal of cap space giving Shelley lots to work with headed into what figures to be a deep Auction Draft.
Value Up
Trey Mancini (2FA/$5)
Mancini, who missed the entire 2019 season after being diagnosed with colon cancer, said recently that his most recent bloodwork showed no tumor DNA, putting him on track to return to full activities during spring training, Joe Trezza of MLB.com reports. Mancini noted that he's been working out five days a week and taking light batting practice so far during the offseason. Mancini should gradually ramp up his activity as spring training nears, and assuming he continues to receive good news in his follow-up tests, he'll be ready to go in full capacity which is a big boost for the Hops after her posted a 482.5 point season in 2019.
Luke Voit (2/$8)
Injuries cost the Yankees the big bats of both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton for the majority of 2020. Enter Voit, who stepped into the sizable shoes of his slugging teammates to pace the majors with 22 home runs. The long-ball total was one more than Voit hit in over twice as many at-bats in 2019 despite posting a nearly identical barrel rate (13.1%) and average exit velocity (88.9 mph). Voit's launch angle was slightly up (from 12.5 to 15.2 degrees), but his most significant adjustment was a 54.4 Pull% that was sixth-highest among qualified hitters and a 6.5-point increase over his 2019 mark. As a nice bonus, his 23.1 K% was the best of his career. Voit has been incredible offensively since joining the Yankees, seizing a role as as the unquestioned everyday first baseman in a potent lineup. He's a safe bet for above-average production with a palatable batting-average floor heading into 2021 and holds a firm spot on the Hops Keeper Roster.
Mitch Keller (Minors)
The Hops held out in trade talks as sellers with the Alamo Short Stacks late in 2018 to acquire Keller and the right-hander looks ready to help as soon as Opening Day. While it was a small sample size, Keller allowed just nine hits in 21 2/3 innings while compiling a 2.91 ERA. The walks (18) were glaring but if he can improve his command, Keller has a chance to develop into a upper-tier arm for the Hops.
Value Down
Planned Aces
Down performances in 2020 might have been helpful in this case for the Hops as the club was prepared to hand $75 combined over to Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard. Bumgarner's first season in the desert was a disaster as the former Giants legend limped to a 6.48 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 41 2/3 innings in 2020 resulting in just 17.0 points. Equally disastrous, Syndergaard didn't throw a competitive pitch in 2020 as elbow tightness progressed to Tommy John surgery that will rule him out until at least late in the first half of the 2021 season.
A.J. Puk (Minors)
For what feels like the 10th consecutive season, A.J. Puk will enter Spring Training trying to shed concerns over an injury. This time, the left-hander is recovering from shoulder surgery in September but is progressing well according to the club. Even if he wins the fifth starter job out of camp, Puk has thrown just 36 2/3 innings since Tommy John surgery in 2018 and might be better suited for a bullpen role moving forward.
Young Outfielders
The Hops thought they had a pair of Waiver Wire steals late in 2019 as both Oscar Mercado and Aristides Aquino were core pieces of the club's 2020 plans. Mercado would go on to hit .128/.174/.174 in 86 at-bats playing himself out of a role on the big league roster while Aquino didn't even make the Reds club out of camp before managing a .170/.304/.319 line. Both are strong bets to be cut this Winter.
Elvis Andrus (2/$2)
Andrus looked like a steal for the Hops in 2019 at $2 and played well in his first year under contract with 355.0 points but things have gone south in the last nine months. The Rangers recently announced that Isiah Kiner-Falefa will be the starting shortstop in 2021, moving Andrus to a bench role and out of the Hops plans for next season. The 32-year-old had been the Rangers' everyday shortstop for over a decade but ended the 2020 season on the shelf with a back strain while finishing with a .194/.252/.330 slash line with three home runs and three steals in 29 games.
Luis Urias (2R/$3)
The Hops acquired Urias alongside Mitch Keller in their late 2018 trade but it's been a slog of a start to the infielders career. Shipped to Milwaukee before the start of the 2020 season, Urias managed just a .223/.329/.326 line with sporadic playing time down the stretch. He did see action at shortstop, second base and third base which could increase his value on a RDBL roster making the former Top 30 prospect a potential trade candidate as well with two years remaining on his deal.
Early 2021 Keeper List Projections
The Hops are in a tough spot as down years from several players have left the Keeper Roster much more shallow than the Front Office had planned. The group is led by star Mike Trout who is owed a RDBL-record $71 in 2021. Given their lack of depth, it might not be out of the realm for GM Garrett Shelley to shop Trout but the return might be somewhat limited given the salary commitment.
Luis Robert looked like a star out of the gates in 2020, but questions entering the year about his plate discipline and ability to hit spin reared their ugly head. Robert hit just .136 (11-for-81) in September and hit just .233 with a .302 on base percentage for the season. Still just 23 years old, Robert remains a core piece of the Hops future.
Voit's 2020 performance further solidified his spot on the roster while Luis Urias and Willie Calhoun will need Opening Day starting spots to earn their spot here.
The starting rotation looks to be a blank slate as the Hops will certainly dig into their Minor Leagues to activate Mitch Keller while healthy springs from A.J. Puk, Forrest Whitley and Shane McClanahan could provide them with more options.
Farm System
It's been a slow burn for the Hops pitching prospects as Keller stands as the only locked in activation for 2021. Injuries continue to derail the timeline for Puk and Whitley while McClanahan's future might be in the bullpen.
The hoppiest Hop prospect is undoubtedly Andrew Vaughn who is among the safest high upside prospects in the sport. It's quite likely Vaughn makes his debut in 2021, though it's likely to be mid-season which would push a potential activation to 2022.
The club likely needs to trim the fat across the Farm System as Luken Baker, Seth Beer, Warming Bernabel, Corey Ray and Jaren Kendall are all candidates to be cut.
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