The Mission Viejo Maulers and GM Chris Ferraro sit in the same spot as they did in March of 2020 as they plan for the Draft -- with an overwhelming amount of work to be done to turn the club into a contender this season. The injury to Justin Verlander was salt in the wound for Ferraro as their current collection of talent without the right-hander has the look of an Expansion Roster with high-priced talent at the top and very little depth.
Some strong 2020 performances in the rotation paired with star Jose Ramirez at least give the club a shot but expect the Maulers to be one of the more active clubs in the remaining weeks before Draft Day with any and every option on the table as Ferraro looks to turn over the roster and get back to their winnings ways in Mission Viejo.
Value Up
Dylan Bundy (2FA/$5)
Few players benefited from a change of scenery as much as Dylan Bundy did in 2020. After a series of mediocre campaigns in Baltimore, the right-hander excelled in his first season with the Angels, posting a career-best ERA (3.29), strikeout rate (27.0%) and walk rate (6.4%) en route to a ninth-place finish in AL Cy Young voting. Perhaps most impressively, Bundy ranked eighth among qualified pitchers with a 0.69 HR/9 -- only two seasons removed from placing dead last in the category by a considerable margin. Playing home games at a more favorable ballpark was a factor, but it's also worth noting that Bundy has pitched to notable dropoffs in opponents' barrel rate, exit velocity and hard-hit percentage since the disastrous 2018 campaign. He no longer throws heat but has adjusted by better mixing up his pitches. The results in 2020 were impressive; the next test is to see if they can hold up over a full season.
Zack Davies (2FA/$5)
Zach Davies was shipped from Milwaukee to San Diego last offseason, and the significant upgrade in park seemed set to boost his fantasy value. That did indeed happen, as he produced a very strong 2.73 ERA in 12 starts after posting a 3.91 ERA in his five years as a Brewer. His improvement was more than just a change in park, however. After producing a career-low 15.2 K% in 2019, he smashed his previous high in 2020, posting a 22.8 K%. His 6.9 BB% was his lowest mark since 2017. Those changes came with a shift in his repertoire, as his changeup usage soared to 41.3%, ahead of his fastball (38.5%). All signs point to his 2020 performance being somewhat sustainable which Ferraro will be counting on this season
Taijuan Walker (2FA/$5)
Taijuan Walker excelled with his second team of the 2020 season, surrendering just four runs over six starts for the Blue Jays after being traded from the Mariners at the end of August. It was this performance that brought his ERA down to 2.70 for the campaign over 53.1 frames. The 28-year-old also posted a 1.16 WHIP with a 50:19 K:BB, good enough for a 4-3 record. 2020 was a reassuring year for the right-hander, who had his 2018 season end early as a result of a UCL injury that required Tommy John surgery. Walker still flashes command issues at times, walking three or more batters in three of his 11 starts, but he took a definite step forward, especially considering he hasn't tossed more than 13 frames in a year since 2017. He remains a free agent, but his 2020 showing should be enough to show teams that he's a capable starter who is likely ticketed for a return to the Maulers rotation.
Value Down
Justin Verlander (2/$54)
The 2019 RDBL Pitcher of the Year was expected to captain the Maulers rotation for a full three year run but that will be cut far short following Tommy John Surgery in October of 2020. After posting the third most points in RDBL Regular Season History in 2019, Verlander lasted just one start in 2020 before elbow soreness sidelined him
Justin Verlander will not throw a competitive pitch in 2021 as he had Tommy John surgery in early October of 2020. In fact, Verlander is in the final year of his contract with the Astros in 2021 as he goes through rehab, so he may have already thrown his final pitch with the franchise. He would be 39 at the start of the 2022 season and likely looking for one more moment in the sun before transitioning to retirement, or even a coaching career as a pitching instructor while he awaits his call from Cooperstown sometime this decade. Even if you are drafting in a keeper league, it is no sure thing Verlander comes back to pitch in 2022. Let someone else in your league take a flier on his 2022 futures while you spend that draft capital on someone that can help you in 2021-2023.
Brendan McKay (Minors)
A shoulder injury that first popped up in February and ultimately required surgery wiped out Brendan McKay's 2020 season and his chance to progress from a rough rookie campaign. The brief time he did spend on the mound gives little insight into what might have been, as McKay balanced one impressive spring-training appearance in relief with one ugly start. His dominance in the minors (1.78 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 11.8 K/9 over 172 innings) oversells his realistic MLB upside moving forward for the former top prospect. From a stuff standpoint, he looks much more like a No. 4 starter than a No. 2 starter, and he also has the shoulder surgery and the Rays' frustrating pitcher usage to contend with. Even if he gets back for part of spring training, it seems likely that he would open the year at Triple-A or in extended spring training with 2021 likely serving as a make or break year for his future in Mission Viejo.
Victor Robles (Minors)
Last offseason, much was made of Victor Robles' poor Statcast profile. Some pointed out his average exit velocity suffers with bunts being included, while others suggested that with his legs, Robles doesn't need to hit the ball hard. Those remaining skeptical proved prescient as Robles never got on track, losing playing time down the stretch. Not only did Robles add six points to his K%, but he also increased his launch angle. This may be conducive to power, but when you don't hit the ball with much authority, seeing-eye singles and infield hits become cans of corn. While the reason was not given, Robles missed several weeks of summer camp, so there's a chance he didn't play the 2020 season at full strength. Still just 24 years old, it's too soon to give up on Robles, though it's clear the former elite prospect has seen his bright light dim.
Early 2021 Projected Keeper List
It possible the Maulers Keeper List looks quite different in seven weeks on Draft Day but the current group is set to be led by Jose Ramirez (3/$41) and Yasmani Grandal (3/$5) on offense while upstarts Dylan Bundy (2FA/$5) and Zach Davies (2FA/$5) head the rotation.
The Maulers Farm System might not be elite but could produce three activations with Dom Smith, Victor Robles and Griffin Canning. Smith is the standout of that group though concerns over playing time could hold back his upside in 2021 if the DH doesn't remain in the National League.
With Nolan Arenado out the door in Colorado, the Maulers are pleading with the Rockies to give Garrett Hampson another chance at everyday at-bats after a subpar 2020 campaign. His eligibility at shortstop, second and the outfield could help solidify a Keeper spot.
Colin Moran (2FA/$5) rounds out the offensive group that most likely to return bring flexibility at both third and first.
Farm System
Any time you can enter a season with three potential activations, the Farm System is doing their job. Unfortunately for the Maulers, most of the remaining group have arrows pointing downward over the last 12 months.
Former Top 100 prospects Brandon McKay, Taylor Trammell, Chance Adams and Jorge Mateo are all facing important years in their development while Jonathan Loaisiga, Anthony Alford and Luis Alexander Basabe are all likely in their final days on the roster.
The bright spot in the group is Nolan Gorman, a slugging third baseman in the Cardinals organization that could make noise in 2021 and position himself for an activation in 2022.
Adrian Morejon also remains a name to watch having already pushed his way to the big leagues at 21. He took his lumps and with the Padres quite deep at starting pitcher, the Maulers are hopeful the club doesn't shift his development into the bullpen.
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