The Jokers were the surprise team of the 2018 season finishing 6th overall in the regular season standings and in 4th place in the playoffs behind the best pitching staff in the league and ace Jacob DeGrom. The club had contracts expire for their key contributors from 2018, including DeGrom, Anthony Rizzo, Javy Baez, and Patrick Corbin, and could not adequately plug those holes in 2019 leading to a 14th place finish. The front office has their work cut out for them this offseason. The roster has well-known names like Stanton (2/$43), Rizzo (2/$40), Piscotty (2/$10), Price (3/$29), Lester (2/$6), and Cueto (2/$1), however injuries and age suggest their best days are likely behind them. Question is whether the front office will stand pat, hoping this core can return to past production, or cut bait and look to rebuild the roster with younger pieces.
Value Up
Brady Singer (Minors)
In his only minor league season in 2019, Singer pitched to a 2.85 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP in 148 innings. He struck out 138 hitters and walked just 39 that season. The Royals clearly felt he was ready as they promoted him to make his Major League debut in the second game of the 2020 season. Singer looked great in that start as he struck out seven hitters in five innings, allowing just two earned runs. For the season, Singer posted a 4.06 ERA with 61 strikeouts in 64 innings of work. It was a solid season for the Kansas City rookie, and one that will likely lead the Jokers to activate the young hurler heading into 2021 to anchor a pitching staff currently filled with question marks.
Andres Gimenez (Minors)
Another likely 2021 activation candidate for the Jokers, Andres Gimenez was one of the pieces Cleveland obtained from the Mets in the Francisco Lindor blockbuster earlier this winter. After his first taste in the majors in 2020, Gimenez projects to bat leadoff in 2021. Although his current lineup context takes a step back when we compare the Mets lineup, he should receive everyday at-bats.
In 2020, Andres Gimenez finished with three home runs, 22 runs, 12 RBI, and eight stolen bases in 132 plate appearances. Gimenez slashed .263/.333/.398 with a 5.3% walk rate and a 21.2% strikeout rate. Gimenez is not known for his power but does provide solid speed with 20+ stolen base potential and should provide a decent batting average as well.
David Price (3/$29)
Left-handed pitcher David Price was one of the biggest names to opt-out of the 2020 MLB season, and fantasy managers may have forgotten how intriguing the southpaw's 2019 season was. He went 7-5 with a solid 4.28 ERA and strong 3.73 xFIP over 107 IP for the Red Sox that year. His K% also increased to a career-best 27.9. There were many reasons for the spike, including cutting back on a largely ineffectual cutter and transforming his curve from a mediocre show-me pitch in 2018 (10.3 SwStr%, 13.8% chase rate) to a legitimate strikeout weapon in 2019 (19.1 SwStr%, 46.9% chase rate). The new pitch mix also helped his heater play up, posting an 11.6 SwStr% and 56.8 Zone% in 2019 after marks of 7.2% and 51.8% in 2018. There is some risk in an older pitcher who didn't play at all the previous season, but his current price tag isn’t too high to roll the dice on a well-rested pitcher on the defending world champions.
Value Down
Anthony Rizzo (2/$40)
Rizzo’s 2020 production was awful. His .222/.342/.414 slash line was easily the worst of his career. While he hit 11 home runs in 58 games played, his hard-hit rate and exit velocity dropped for the second straight year. Rizzo had back problems again at the beginning of the season, and it’s a possibility that they are playing a role in the changes we’ve seen over the past couple of seasons. He hit just 25 home runs in 2018 and 27 in 2019, the year of the juiced ball, after averaging 32 per year from 2014 – 2017. It could be that Rizzo’s days as a top tier 1B are now in the rear-view mirror.
Nick Senzel (Minors)
Senzel was a 1st round pick in the 2016 RDBL Reserve Draft by the Hops and was previously one of the top prospects in the game. Senzel just hasn’t been able to stay on the field. In 2018 he battled vertigo. In 2019 he tore his labrum, and in 2020 he dealt with COVID-19 symptoms. While some of the numbers he has put up in his limited time as a Red may be explained by his health issues, the former top prospect has logged an underwhelming .245/.305/.416 slash line in 492 plate appearances. Senzel is also not as young as you may think, turning 26 during the upcoming 2021 season. It’s hard to evaluate what to expect from Senzel going forward due to his injury history and limited poor performance in the senior circuit.
Dakota Hudson (2FA/$5)
Dakota Hudson had Tommy John surgery in late September, making him likely to miss the entire 2021 season. Hudson was a pitcher on the rise, poised to be provide the Jokers value in 2021 with his $5 contract. In eight starts prior to the injury, Hudson had a 2.77 ERA with a very strong 56.7 percent ground ball rate. In 2019, he broke out with a 3.35 ERA in 174 2/3 innings, and although his strikeout (career 7.0 K/9) and walk (career 4.4 BB/9) rates are unimpressive, Hudson makes up for it with a great sinker (career 57.3 percent grounders) and his ability to get out jams by getting a ground ball.
Kyle Wright (Minors)
Once upon a time, Kyle Wright was a candidate to go 1-1 in the 2017 MLB, ultimately going to the Atlanta Braves at 5 from the perennial power that is Vanderbilt. For quite some time Kye Wright was amongst the better pitching prospects in all of baseball due to a mid-to-upper 90s fastball and a bunch of average to above average secondaries, as well as quality control and decent command. However, this has not translated into success at the Major League level.
The Jokers drafted Wright in the first round of the RDBL Reserve Draft back in 2018 and probably envisioned him working his way to a solid mid-rotation option for the club, but he hasn’t been that. He has been droppable for many stretches. He doesn’t punch people out, he has allowed 1.84 HR/9 over his career, and he hasn’t been an asset in the ERA and WHIP departments. With a heavy investment made in Wright and the fact that he should open up the year as the 5th starter in Atlanta, it’s difficult to see him being cut loose, but it will be interesting to see how long the Jokers will wait for him to figure things out.
Early 2021 Keeper List Projections
The Jokers roster carries a lot of risk to it. The offense is anchored by Stanton and Rizzo and those two contracts account for 32% of the team’s budget. Stanton, when healthy, is a high-end fantasy asset. The issue is he just hasn’t been healthy the past two season, making a $43 investment a very risky one. Rizzo is coming off his worst year, albeit it was a weird shortened 2020, it still adds risk to his $40 contract.
Nomar Mazara and Stephen Piscotty both had unproductive 2019 and 2020 campaigns. Senzel and Gimenez may provide some value as activations, but their ceilings appear to be limited making them less impactful activations.
Luis Arraez is the main bright spot for the offense. He came out of nowhere in the second half of 2019, ending the season hitting .335 with a .402 OBP, and followed it up hitting .321 in 32 games in 2020. He will provide value to the offense with his ability to hit.
The pitching staff also carries plenty of risk. Can Brady Singer put together a full season of productivity? Are Johnny Cueto and Jon Lester now replacement level performers, or are they capable of returning to their past form? Can Caleb Smith stay healthy and provide 300 – 350 points? A lot of big questions to be answered for the Jokers.
Farm System
This isn’t a system to get too excited about. We’ve mentioned the expected activations for the club in 2021 (Senzel, Gimenez, Singer). Setting them aside, the system is pretty bare with plenty of fat to be trimmed. Much of this system has fallen off top prospect lists (e.g. Dylan Cozens, Alex Faedo, Vladimir Gutierrez, and Adonis Medina), and we’ve spoken previously about Kyle Wright’s struggles as well.
LHP DL Hall is the team’s top prospect, who is moving up top-100 lists in 2021. His stuff is undeniable, but he has trouble with command leading to high walk rates. If he can curb the free passes, he should continue to progress up prospect rankings, otherwise he could end up in the bullpen crushing his value.
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