Team Needs:
Asti Grape Stompers, Lake Merced Goutfish, Maltese Falcons, Mission Viejo Maulers, Burlingame Blue Ducks, Mt. Diablo Devils, St. Joseph Jokers
Top Free Agents:
Christian Yelich, Brewers
Christian Yelich won the NL MVP in 2018 and was at least in contention to win it again in 2019, but he fractured his kneecap in September of that year and saw his season come to an abrupt end. The injury did not seem of much concern to the Brewers, who rewarded Yelich with a $200 million contract last offseason. Yelich recovered from his injury in time for the originally-scheduled Opening Day, and he was able to play in all but two games last season. However, something clearly was not right, as he stole only four bases and saw all three components of his slash line drop off significantly. Yelich really struggled to put the ball in play, striking out a whopping 30 percent of the time, and when he did, he ran into terrible luck, finishing with a BABIP roughly 100 points lower than his career average. Still very much in his prime at age 29, there's plenty of reason to expect a bounceback from Yelich.
Aaron Judge, Yankees
Aaron Judge looked like an MVP candidate through the first few weeks of the abbreviated 2020 campaign, slashing .290/.343/.758 with nine home runs and 20 RBI over his first 17 games. However, he missed significant time for the third straight season when a calf strain forced him to the bench for all but one of the following 31 contests. Upon his return, Judge struggled to find a rhythm at the plate, hitting a meager .194 with no homers over 43 PA to end the regular season. It stands to reason that the injury was largely responsible for Judge's disappointing overall 11.6% barrel rate, 92.2 mph average exit velocity and 40.6% hard-hit rate (all precipitous drops from his career norms), and it's wise to expect those numbers to rise over a larger sample this season.
Charlie Blackmon, Rockies Charlie Blackmon remained relatively consistent during his age-34 season in 2020 but is rumored to be a candidate to be dropped by the Lunatic Fringe due to his 3/$47 contract. His OBP remained over .350 for a fifth straight season, but his wOBA fell slightly to .340, his lowest mark since 2014. Although his on-base stats held steady, his hard-hit rate fell from 40.3% in 2019 to 29.7% in 2020, and his HR/FB rate dropped to 10.5%. His six home runs were only on pace for 16 over a full season after he averaged 31.8 home runs per season over the four prior years. Additionally, his swinging-strike rate has steadily crept up over the past five seasons. The number was in double figures (10.3%) for the first time during the 60-game season. The left-handed hitter fared much better against southpaws in 2020 (1.012 OPS) than he did against righties (.736 OPS). Blackmon isn't in danger of losing playing time and remains a high-end fantasy option, but he has some minor question marks for the first time in recent memory which has GM Tony Guglielmi pondering his release.
Randy Arozarena, Rays
Arozarena's story is well-documented after arguably the best post-season ever by a hitter in 2020. Just how out of control his Auction price gets will be one of the storylines of the 2021 Draft with clubs like the Mission Viejo Maulers lining up for his services. His speed and power combo remind me of a younger, less crazy Yasiel Puig and it will be fascinating to watch just how much of his momentum he can carry over this season and beyond.
Kyle Lewis, Mariners
Lewis is evidence that not all roads to stardom are straight and his rise in 2020 has both the Mission Viejo Maulers and Asti Grape Stompers kicking themselves. A 2017 1st Round pick by the Maulers, GM Chris Ferraro lost faith in the outfield entering the 2019 season and dealt him to the Grapes for Teoscar Hernandez. The Grapes would go on to cut Lewis just two months later as GM Terry Shelley trimmed his Keeper Roster for the 2019 Draft. Fast forward two years and Lewis is set to receive $35+ in Auction as a true 30 homer threat who is fresh off the American League Rookie of the Year Award.
Under the Radar Free Agents
Mitch Haniger, Mariners
Mitch Haniger has not appeared in a major-league game since June 6, 2019. A ruptured testicle sidelined Haniger initially and he battled back discomfort in the months that followed, leading to a pair of surgeries in the early months of 2020. The first was sports hernia surgery and the second was a microdiscectomy to repair a vertebrae in Haniger's lower back. He still had not been cleared to resume baseball activities when summer camp began and it soon became clear that Haniger would not be able to return during the shortened 2020 season. He was said to be increasing his lifting and workouts in September and it was reported in December that Haniger had finally resumed full baseball activities. The expectation is that Haniger will be the Mariners' starting right fielder in 2020. Seattle has committed $3.01 million to him in the hope he can still be something resembling the .267/.348/.480 hitter he was previously.
Teoscar Hernandez, Blue Jays
The trio of Vlad Guerrero, Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio got most of the attention last spring, but it was Teoscar Hernandez who carried the Blue Jays' offense through most of the short 2020 season. Hernandez had two multi-homer games before the end of July and was still playing at an MVP-caliber level in early September before an oblique strain cropped up. The injury was expected to cost Hernandez serious time, but he returned after the minimum only to hit .227/.227/.386 in his final 11 regular-season games. Despite the cold finish, Hernandez still ranked among the elite in virtually every batted-ball metric, and his sprint speed ranked in the 85th percentile. He displayed big-time growth against right-handed pitching, shaving his strikeout rate against righties from to 34.7% to 28.9%, though it's fair to wonder how much of that growth is real. Hernandez has to get the most out of his limited contact.
Ian Happ, Cubs
Ian Happ got off to a hot start in 2020 and never really looked back, as he put to rest any notion that he and Albert Almora would split time in center field. Happ ended up finishing with 12 homers, 27 runs, 28 RBI and an .866 OPS across 57 games. Encouragingly, the 26-year-old posted a career-best .361 on-base percentage and kept his strikeout rate below 30% for the second straight season. Happ spent a good chunk of his 2019 season in the minors working on making more consistent contact, and that decision looks brilliant in retrospect as Happ has been a different player since returning. Notable in 2020 was the fact that Happ virtually stopped playing the infield, making just two appearances at first base. He broke into the majors as more of a utility player but is now mainly an outfielder. Fantasy managers might like to see Happ earn eligibility at more positions and run a little bit, but they can't complain much about his recent production.
Trade Candidates
Bryce Harper (3/$50), Maltese Falcons
The Falcons started their re-tooling with the trade of Kyle Hendricks earlier this Winter and Bryce Harper stands as the next one to potentially go for GM Gary Falzon and Assistant GM Erik Nielsen. Harper posted a monster .420 OBP in 2020, his best since his MVP season in 2015, along with 13 home runs and a .542 slugging percentage, all while battling back issues that affecting him late in the year.
George Springer (2/$34), Idaho Taters
George Springer's time in Houston has come to an end. He came up as a rookie who could take a walk and hit homers, but his aggressive approach left him exposed to strikeouts. That got better each year, and Springer actually closed 2020 with a career-best strikeout rate. One would assume Springer had big home/road splits, but in fact he has 12 more homers on the road than at home in his career, and hit 19 points better on the road in his time with Houston. This past season was the first in which Springer hit more flyballs than groundballs, and was also the most pull-heavy season of his big-league career. It is almost as if he was auditioning for a big-budgeted 2021 employer. We're taught to be cautious in the first year of a new big contract, but Springer has all of the tools to be a frontline fantasy producer even if he no longer steals bases as he once did. He can hit in any one of the top four spots of a lineup.
Manuel Margot (2FA/$5), Honolulu Hammerheads
Manuel Margot racked up 12 steals despite making just 37 starts during the short 2020 season. He spent time on the COVID-19 injured list, not because he contracted the virus but as a precaution after traveling to the Dominican Republic following the death of his father. Margot still ended up tying with Kevin Kiermaier for fifth-most PA on the team (159). While Margot only hit one homer during the regular season, he clubbed five HR in the postseason while slashing .276/.344/.552. He also made one of the best catches you'll ever see in the ALCS after grading out exceedingly well in terms of outfielder jump during the regular season. While Margot is never going to hit for a ton of power, he does enough else well to allow the speed play in most rotisserie leagues assuming he's getting the playing time. Everyday at-bats should not be expected, but Margot looks like he will have a significant role on the 2021 Rays.
Jason Heyward (2FA/$5), Maltese Falcons
Heyward delivered steady production for the Cubs and fantasy managers in 2020. The veteran outfielder posted an .848 OPS, which was his highest mark since his 2010 rookie season and the first time he cleared an .800 OPS since 2012. Heyward added six home runs, 20 runs scored and 22 RBI across 50 games. Those were welcome numbers during a year in which Chicago saw players such as Javier Baez and Kris Bryant fall short of their lofty standards. Heyward's greatest asset is still his defense in right field. That doesn't translate to fantasy baseball, but at least he's started to hit a bit more after the Cubs signed him to an eight-year, $184 million deal before the 2016 season. The 31-year-old might never be quite the offensive dynamo you'd expect of a player with such a contract, but Heyward can still be expected to earn regular playing time and post respectable numbers in 2021.
Activations: Kyle Tucker / Trent Grisham (Stacks), Alex Kiriloff / Cristian Pache (Hammerheads), Alex Verdugo (Clovers), Raimel Tapia / Cavan Biggio (Aristocrats), Ryan Mountcastle (Fringe), Dominic Smith (Goutfish), Victor Robles (Maulers), Leody Taveras (Devils), Nick Senzel (Jokers), Clint Frazier / Austin Hays (Fish), Luis Robert (Hops)
15 Prospects are projected to make the jump to the Active Roster on Opening Day in the RDBL which is causing havoc on the Free Agent market for outfielders. The group is led by Kyle Tucker (Stacks), Alex Verdugo (Clovers) and Cavan Biggio (Aristocrats) who are the likeliest bets to eclipse the 400 point threshold in 2021 but there is plenty of talent behind them.
Luis Robert (Hops) might be the most talented member of the group but will need to improve his plate discipline to unlock the 450-500 point production he's capable of.
New Goutfish addition Dom Smith was arguably the Mets top hitter in 2020 and should hold down a daily role in left field while Ryan Mountcastle looks to build on a strong Rookie season in Baltimore for the Fringe.
It will be interesting to watch who breaks out offensively from the trio of Victor Robles (Maulers), Cristian Pache (Hammerheads) and Leody Taveres (Devils) as each are currently known more for their gloves than their bats.
Pre-Draft Potential Deals
Grapes Acquire: OF Bryce Harper (3/$50), 1B/OF Hunter Dozier (2FA/$5)
Falcons Acquire: OF Jo Adell (Minors), RHP Marcus Stroman (2/$6)
The Grapes appear open to moving third baseman Manny Machado (2/$48) which would open up the salary cap space for GM Terry Shelley to acquire a safer bet like Harper who would immediately create one of the top combos in the league with Freddie Freeman.
The Grapes could add Hunter Dozier to the deal with eyes on a bounceback season. The club has needs at both the corner and in the outfield which Dozier provides the flexibility to cover.
In return, the Falcons could add Jo Adell who was untouchable at this time last season. While his stock has slipped a bit, it's hard to deny that he was rushed to the big leagues and would benefit from more time in the minors given that he is still just 21 years old.
The Falcons have hopes in returning to contention quickly which makes Marcus Stroman a strong addition to slot into the back half of their rotation for just $6 through 2022.
Aristocrats Acquire: OF George Springer (2/$34), C Carson Kelly (Minors)
Taters Acquire: 2B Gavin Lux (Minors), 2021 3rd Round Pick (31st Overall)
Springer has been in the rumor mill for the past week as the Taters appear open to moving the talented outfielder before Draft Day. If so, the Aristocrats could line up nicely to strike as the club has the cash flow and need in the outfield for Springer while getting the Taters to sweeten the deal and part with one of their two activation-ready catchers in Carson Kelly.
The Taters are focused on building a strong young core of prospects that are ready to contribute in a big way in 2022 which aligns perfectly with the acquisition of Lux while also adding the first pick of the 3rd Round. Lux will have to wait his turn again in 2021 on a crowded Dodgers roster, but should take hold of the second base job for good in 2022.
2021 Free Agent Rankings
1 Christian Yelich, Brewers
2. Aaron Judge, Yankees
3. *Charlie Blackmon, Rockies
4. Michael Brantley, Astros
5. Randy Arozarena, Rays
6. Mike Yastrzemski, Giants
7. Nick Castellanos, Reds
8. J.D. Martinez, Red Sox
9. Kyle Lewis, Mariners
10. Michael Conforto, Mets
11. Ian Happ, Cubs
12. Max Kepler, Twins
13. Wil Myers, Padres
14. Jeff McNeil, Mets
15. Tommy Pham, Padres
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