Team Needs:
Mt. Diablo Devils, Meinert Hops, Alamo Short Stacks, Burlingame Blue Ducks, Maltese Falcons, Idaho Taters
Top Free Agents
Gerrit Cole, Yankees
Expectations for Gerrit Cole were massive after he signed a nine-year, $324 million contract to lead the Yankees' rotation for the foreseeable future. The big right-hander's first season in pinstripes went well enough, though his final numbers were a minor letdown for those who expected him to match the production he posted in his final season with the Astros. Opposing batters hit Cole harder and more often in 2020 -- though still dominant, his 32.6 K% was a significant dropoff from the 39.9% mark he posted the previous season, while the 44.6 hard-hit% against him represented a nearly 10-point jump. That led to a career-worst 1.73 HR/9, which was largely responsible for a slight ERA increase. This is all nitpicking for a hurler who is unquestionably one of the best in the game. Cole remains a truly elite SP1 in fantasy and could rival Max Scherzer for the top contract in the history of the RDBL for a pitcher ($68).
Shane Bieber, Indians
Shane Bieber followed up his breakout 2019 season by winning the American League Cy Young Award in a unanimous vote. The right-hander was not an MVP finalist alongside teammate Jose Ramirez, but Bieber had a case; he ranked third in all of baseball in fWAR (behind Ramirez and Freddie Freeman) and went 8-1 in 12 starts, carrying a Cleveland rotation that was without Mike Clevinger and Zach Plesac for a prolonged stretch. Bieber led the majors in K-BB rate at 34% and held opponents to a .167 average while showcasing some of the best command seen on a baseball field in recent memory. Hitters can still hit the ball hard when they manage to connect, but the connections are so few and far between that it hardly matters. He will rival Cole for the top contract in Free Agency this year in the RDBL.
Zack Greinke, Astros
After giving up six runs in his first five starts of the season, Zack Greinke struggled down the stretch, surrendering three or more runs in his last seven starts. As a result, he posted a 4.03 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 67 innings, his worst marks since the 2016 campaign. The right-hander finished with a 3-3 record and a 67:9 K:BB on the year, proving that he still has the pinpoint command that has made him successful on the back end of his career. Greinke's fastball velocity was noticeably down in 2020, sitting just over 87 mph, but with the help of his command and secondary pitches, the 37-year-old remains effective. With that said, the 18th hole may be on the horizon for the seasoned veteran, who has nearly 3,000 innings under his belt. Despite this, he'll likely open 2021 as the team's ace with teammate Justin Verlander set to miss the entire season following Tommy John surgery.
Under the Radar Free Agents
Jameson Taillon, Yankees
Jameson Taillon's career should become a movie if he comes out on the other side of everything with a success story. In the past six years, he has gone through two Tommy John surgeries as well as a bout of testicular cancer. He has spent more time in rehab than on the pitching mound, and 2020 was no different. Taillon had his second TJS in mid-August of 2019, so pitching in 2020 was never really on the table for him anyhow. In between injuries, he has pitched well to the Pittsburgh pitching script and still gets his strikeouts while being stingy with walks. He added a new slider in 2018, and was throwing it as his primary pitch before is elbow gave out again in the summer of 2019. Most pitchers do not return to their previous form until two years post-surgery, so expect some bumps in the road with Taillon, especially early on. Look at Chris Bassitt in 2019 -- first half vs. second half -- if you want a roadmap.
Joe Musgrove, Padres
Joe Musgrove's 3.82 FIP in 2019 indicated that he deserved better than his 4.44 ERA. As it turns out, that number was a near-perfect estimation of his ERA in 2020, which came in at 3.86 in eight starts, a number cut short by a spell on the injured list due to triceps inflammation. For the fourth consecutive year, Musgrove's FIP beat his ERA, coming in at a career-low 3.42. His underlying numbers looked like they belonged to an entirely different pitcher than who he was in his first four seasons. His K% sat in a very narrow band between 20.6% and 21.9% in those years before shooting up to 33.1% in 2020. That did come with some control problems, as he posted a 9.6 BB%, well above his previous career high of 6.3%, though he also produced a career-high 48.4% groundball rate. The good here definitely outweighs the bad, and while the sample was quite small, Musgrove looks more interesting than ever heading into 2021.
Patrick Corbin, Nationals
Corbin is currently on a 2/$31 option for the Fringe, but early indications are that the left-hander is on the outside looking in for a Keeper spot. Corbin entered the 2020 season coming off a career-high workload of 225 total innings including the Nationals' World Series run. That's one potential explanation for his diminished fastball velocity of just 90.2 mph in 2020 - the lowest mark of his career. More problematic was Corbin's loss of effectiveness with his slider, one of the best pitches in the league for several seasons running. While he still was able to limit opposing batters to a .198 BA and .366 SLG with the pitch, he managed just a 38.2% whiff rate. In his previous two seasons, Corbin induced whiff rates of 52% and 53.6% with his slider. Heading into 2021, the left-hander should be viewed as a risky proposition to bounce back given that he is entering his age-32 season but could be quite the boon on a reasonable deal.
Trade Candidates
Dallas Keuchel (2FA/$5), Idaho Taters
While the Taters have yet to make a move this off-season, they have shown a willingness to discuss anyone on their roster which includes their only starter Dallas Keuchel. Even with Lance Lynn now in the fold in Chicago, Keuchel likely slides in as the number two starter in name after a 2020 resurgence saw him allow 2 ER or fewer in 10 of his 11 starts despite losing a tick of already-low velo and posting a career-worst 6.0 K/9. Though that level of success isn’t close to a sustainable expectation—most projection systems have him tabbed for a mid-fours ERA—Keuchel was a different pitcher in 2020 than years past, almost entirely ditching his slider and four-seamer in favor of a nearly even distribution of sinkers, cutter, and changeups, to the effect of much weaker contact, if fewer strikeouts. With multiple Gold Glove candidates scattered around the field for the White Sox, he’s in the right place for his contact-oriented ways, though home runs are always a concern at Guaranteed Rate Field.
Chris Paddack (2/$14), Spokane Fightin' Fish
The Fightin' Fish have six starters they feel good about and reportedly seem content carrying an entire starting rotation into Auction. GM Michael Tirabassi could have his mind changed though and if he does, Paddack could be the one a competing club could wiggle loose. Paddack was the talk of baseball for a while in 2019 as he made the jump from Double-A and hit the ground running, cruising to a 3.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 140.2 innings as a 23-year-old. His changeup remained a great weapon in 2020, but his fastball suddenly became entirely too hittable. Major League Baseball combined to hit .308 with a .658 SLG against Paddack's four-seam fastball in 2020, up from .204 and .391 the season prior. Of the 14 homers Paddack allowed, 10 were against the four-seamer. Aside from a minor ankle injury in September, Paddack was ostensibly healthy. His average velocity on his four-seamer held steady, supporting the idea his arm is fine. Paddack, who had Tommy John surgery earlier in his career, is just entering his age-25 season and should theoretically be well rested and capable of handling a relatively heavy workload in 2021.
Zack Davies (2FA/$5), Mission Viejo Maulers
Davies was shipped from Milwaukee to San Diego last offseason, and the significant upgrade in park seemed set to boost his fantasy value. That did indeed happen, as he produced a very strong 2.73 ERA in 12 starts after posting a 3.91 ERA in his five years as a Brewer. His improvement was more than just a change in park, however. After producing a career-low 15.2 K% in 2019, he smashed his previous high in 2020, posting a 22.8 K%. His 6.9 BB% was his lowest mark since 2017. Those changes came with a shift in his repertoire, as his changeup usage soared to 41.3%, ahead of his fastball (38.5%). That means there's a good chance his short-season gains stick which could make him a nice addition to a different RDBL rotation.
Activations: Julio Urias (Stacks), Nate Pearson (Taters), Ian Anderson (Heads), Jesus Luzardo (Clovers), Max Fried (Aristocrats), Lucas Giolito / Sandy Alcantara / Triston McKenzie (Fringe), Sixto Sanchez (Goutfish), Griffin Canning (Maulers), Deivi Garcia (Devils), Brady Singer (Jokers), A.J. Puk (Hops)
A stout group of activation ready pitchers are set to hit Active Rosters across the RDBL. The Lunatic Fringe hold the most activations with three along with the most accomplished arm of the group in Lucas Giolito. It's been a long haul for Giolito who was selected in the 13th Round of the 2013 RDBL Draft by the Alamo Short Stacks. Giolito has technically made his RDBL debut after being added to the Fringe roster for the 2019 Playoffs. Sandy Alcantara and Triston McKenzie will join Giolito in a talented trio for the contending Fringe.
Max Fried isn't far behind Giolito as the Aristocrats lefty will look to build on a breakout 2020 season.
Jesus Luzardo was among the hottest names in the sport at this time last season but answered with just an okay Rookie campaign. The Clovers are hoping there is more in the tank for the talented lefty who is a lock to be in the Opening Day rotation for GM Chris Shelley.
Julio Urias looks to build on a dominant 2020 Playoff run for the Stacks but will likely continue to fight against the Dodger depth chart with his innings continuing to pace behind the rest of the league.
While ready, Nate Pearson, Deivi Garcia, Griffin Canning and Sixto Sanchez could be deadline decisions with each RDBL franchise potentially having their eyes more on 2022 for their debut.
Potential Pre-Draft Deals
Devils Acquire: RHP Dylan Bundy (2FA/$5), RHP Zack Davies (2FA/$5), Maulers 1st Round Pick (5th Overall)
Maulers Acquire: Devils 1st Round Pick (3rd Overall), Ducks 5th Round Pick (72nd Overall), OF Travis Swaggerty (Minors)
Ducks Acquire: RHP Taijuan Walker (2FA/$5), C James McCann (2FA/$5)
The Maulers and Devils clearly line up for a deal as GM Jason Watson has been chasing pitching help all off-season and is still looking even after their acquisition of Sean Manaea. By letting go of a valuable James McCann, the Devils could fill two additional slots in their rotation while also dropping two spots in the first round of the Draft.
The Ducks are short on depth and the sacrifice of prospect Travis Swaggerty would allow them to acquire a pair of strong keeper options for just $10 combined.
Rounding out the deal would be the Maulers who do lose a trio of starters that are all on expiring deals, but receive a more prized pick in the first round along with a strong prospect in Swaggerty who could fit into their next core of young talent.
Devils Acquire: RHP Trevor Bauer (2/$55), C Christian Vazquez (2FA/$5)
Fightin' Fish Acquire: C James McCann (2FA/$5), Jokers 3rd Round Pick (36th Overall)
Jokers Acquire: C J.T. Realmuto (3/$30)
Stacks Acquire: IF Andres Gimenez (Minors)
A four-teamer deal to wrap up the 2021 Free Agent Rankings is just what you would expect! The Fightin' Fish have six viable options in the rotation and after their acquisition of Jose Ramirez, league sources believe the club would part with Bauer first due in large part to the $55 contract. The Devils have been looking for an ace and could leverage the strongest part of their roster to acquire him.
The Jokers appear ready to move on from both Anthony Rizzo ($40) and Giancarlo Stanton ($43), making them a prime candidate to absorb Realmuto's $30 deal.
The Devils are hesitant to enter the Draft without a catcher which is where the Stacks come into the fold. By offering off Vazquez, who ranked 3rd and 5th in catcher scoring over the last two seasons, GM Greg Shelley could acquire some much needed positional flexibility with activation-ready infielder Andres Gimenez.
2021 Free Agents Rankings
1 Gerrit Cole, Yankees
2. Shane Bieber, Indians
3. Zack Greinke, Astros
4. *Max Scherzer, Nationals
5. Blake Snell, Padres
6. Brandon Woodruff, Brewers
7. Hyun-Jin Ryu, Blue Jays
8. Aaron Nola, Phillies
9. Zack Wheeler, Phillies
10. Kwang Hyun Kim, Cardinals
11 *Carlos Carrasco, Mets
12. Lance McCullers, Astros
13. Miles Mikolas, Cardinals
14. Marco Gonzales, Mariners
15. Aaron Civale, Indians
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