The absence of the 2020 RDBL Season certainly threw off planning for several teams and while much has changed over the last 12 months, many of the top names remain the same as we explore the first 2021 Reserve Mock Draft.
The Las Vegas Aristocrats own the top spot for the second time in RDBL History, previous selecting Hector Olivera in 2015 who famously posted just 10.0 points for the club in 19 at-bats before a domestic violence charge ended his big league career.
GM Nick Holz and Assistant GM Nick Kusanovich certainly hope to have better results this season as they appear centered on third baseman Austin Martin with the top pick.
The Maltese Falcons are currently the only Franchise with two selections in the round while the Honolulu Hammerheads are the lone Franchise without a selection currently.
1. Las Vegas Aristocrats: 3B Austin Martin, Blue Jays
Tools: Hit: 70 | Power: 55 | Run: 55 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 50
The best prospect in the 2020 draft class slipped to the Blue Jays, who picked fifth and were probably delighted to have a player with his kind of potential get to their selection. The Aristocrats don't figure to let him slip in the RDBL Reserve Draft and have centered on him for their top selection. Martin has exceptional hand-eye coordination and plus-plus bat speed, striking out only 36 times with 50 walks in 392 PA over his last year-plus at Vanderbilt. He’s probably best suited to third base, but the Jays intend to try him out at shortstop — which he has the athleticism and foot speed to handle — with third, second or even center field all possibilities. This bat at a skill position is pretty unusual and gives him some MVP upside long-term with comps to Anthony Rendon.
2. Meinert Hops: SS CJ Abrams, Padres
Tools: Hit: 70 | Power: 50 | Run: 80 | Fielding: 60 | Arm: 50
The Hops have been known to go off the beaten path early in past years but this year's pick carries significant weight as the Franchise looks to add to their core of up and coming assets like Andrew Vaughn, Luis Robert and Forrest Whitley. While the ETA might not line up perfectly, CJ Abrams stands above the rest of the available talent and could move quickly with a strong performance in 2021. After signing for $5.2 million, Abrams hit .401 in the Rookie-level Arizona League to win the league’s MVP award and received a promotion to low Class A Fort Wayne. He spent 2020 at the alternate training site and excelled against older competition before finishing the year with a dominant showing at instructional league. Abrams has a rare blend of elite athleticism and a gifted feel for hitting. His flat, fluid swing consistently produces hard contact and allows him to drive the ball wherever it’s pitched. Abrams has the direct stroke and bat speed to hit any fastball and the hand-eye coordination to barrel secondary pitches even when he’s fooled or off-balance. He occasionally chases off the edges of the plate, but he rarely swings and misses in the strike zone. A potential .300 hitter, Abrams has the long, lean frame to add strength and reach 20-home run power at maturity while his elite speed makes him a premier stolen base threat.
3. Mt. Diablo Devils: OF Riley Greene, Tigers
Tools: Hit: 60 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Fielding: 55 | Arm: 50
The Devils appear focused on three prospects with their selection though they would gladly scoop up Martin or Abrams if they fall. The club will have a close eye on left-hander Tarik Skubal who will be pushing for an Opening Day job in Detroit, pushing him to the Auction Draft. That would lead to the club picking between smooth-hitting outfielder Riley Greene and right-hander Logan Gilbert. The Devils haven't had a great deal of success in their development of pitchers and have a wave of hitting talent on the way that could be joined by Greene. A bat-first outfielder, Greene has drawn comps to Michael Brantley and could join Wander Franco as impact 2022 activations.
4. *Maltese Falcons: RHP Kumar Rocker, Vanderbilt
*Acquired from Spokane Fightin' Fish for RHP Tyler Glasnow
Tools: Fastball: 65 | Slider: 65 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50
The Falcons have entered an organizational rebuild and appear full focused on pure upside with the 4th overall pick while having the advantage of also selecting 10th overall. The Falcons Front Office is not looking for a long-term step back which aligns well with high upside and quick to the big leagues right-hander Logan Gilbert but likely first overall MLB draft pick Kumar Rocker appears to be the favorite currently. Rocker was a 2017 10th Round Pick by the Las Vegas Aristocrats out of High School but dropped later that season after honoring his commitment to Vanderbilt. He has seen a steady rise in his value and enters the college season as the top ranked player in Amatuer Baseball.
5. Mission Viejo Maulers: RHP Logan Gilbert, Mariners
Tools: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 55
The Maulers have seen significant dips in value to former top prospects Victor Robles and Brendan McKay making this a critical selection for a rebuilding franchise. While Gilbert may not have top of the rotation upside, he's one of the safer bets in the Minor Leagues to quickly make an impact at the big league level. Gilbert was the Mariners’ first-round pick in 2018 after a spring when he pitched well but with less velocity due to a case of mono; since then, he’s picked back up to pitch more at 92-95 with a plus breaking ball. At the alternate site in 2020, the Mariners had him work on his changeup to further round out his arsenal. Gilbert’s delivery is so easy that it’s almost boring, and he has some of the best command of anyone on this list, so while he probably doesn’t have a 70 pitch anywhere, he should be an above-average starter for someone for a very long time, maybe outlasting a lot of guys who burn twice as bright. He enters Spring Training with an outside shot to make the Mariners rotation but is more likely ticketed for Triple-A and an early selection in the Reserve Draft. Yankees right-hander Clarke Schmidt appears to also be in the mix for GM Chris Ferraro.
6. Lake Merced Goutfish: OF JJ Bleday, Marlins
Tools: Hit: 60 | Power: 60 | Run: 50 | Fielding: 55 | Arm: 60
With a loaded activation class and as strong of a Keeper List as we have seen in RDBL History, the Goutfish have eyes on a historic three-year run and would love to add a player with the 6th selection that can contribute in that span. The Marlins drafted Bleday fourth overall in 2019 and signed him for a franchise-record $6.67 million after he led Vanderbilt to a national championship his junior season and led the nation with 27 home runs. Following his pro debut at high Class A Jupiter in 2019, Bleday was slated to play in Double-A in 2020. Instead he faced the organization’s top-level pitchers at the alternate training site. He has a chance to fast-track to Miami and secure a starting corner outfield spot before the end of the season giving the Goutfish additional depth for the Playoffs and an activation candidate for 2022. First baseman Triston Casas has also drawn interest from GM Ryan Atkinson according to sources.
7. Idaho Taters: 2B Nick Gonzalez, Pirates
Tools: Hit: 70 | Power: 45 | Run: 55 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 50
The Taters took over a surprisingly strong Farm System with all seven of their top prospects entering 2021 with the potential to be activated by next season. Much like the Devils, the Taters would love to add a prospect that shares a similar ETA. GM Mike Friedrich has a history of heavily favoring hitting over pitching in prospect evaluation making Nick Gonzalez the logical fit. Gonzalez will see a wide range of prospect rankings as his defense leaves plenty to be desired but he was viewed as the best pure hitter in the 2020 MLB Draft class. The bat should allow him to fly through the Minors with a chance to position himself for a 2022 activation.
8. St. Joseph Jokers: RHP Grayson Rodriguez, Orioles
Tools: Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 60
There's a fair amount of clutter that needs to be cleared out in the Jokers Farm System which has struggled to produce a star. If he slips to this spot, Grayson Rodriguez could help change that trend as one of the few Minor League arms with true #1 starter potential. The Jokers are expected to graduate Brady Singer to their Active Roster this season with DL Hall likely not far behind. The addition of Rodriguez would give them a solid pitching core to build around in the near future. Two months at the Orioles’ secondary camp allowed Rodriguez a chance to further hone the consistency of his clean, sturdy delivery. His four-seam fastball sat 95-98 mph with plus-plus potential all summer, and for the second straight year got harder as the season went on. Rodriguez quickly learned a changeup in 2019 and it remains an above-average pitch at 82-85 mph. His curveball has good shape but lacks power in the mid 70s, leaving his low-80s slider as the more effective of his breaking balls. The experience at the alternate site helped Rodriguez start to understand pitching to a plan against older hitters whom he can’t simply overpower. He should reach Double-A in 2021 at which point he will be on the fast track to Baltimore as one of the centerpieces of their rebuild.
Third baseman Josh Jung was attached to the Jokers at this time last year and remains a fit for the club as well.
9. Alamo Short Stacks: OF Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks
Tools: Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 70 | Fielding: 60 | Arm: 45
The Stacks have typically chased upside as their top priority in scouting which they would veer away from with the potential selection of Carroll. He can flash all five tools, as he’s already a 70 runner, projects to stay in center with above-average defense, and has shown a real feel to hit, with an advanced idea of the strike zone already despite playing amateur baseball at a private high school in Seattle. He’s just 5-10, which hurt his draft stock but hasn’t kept him from making hard, loud contact. Given his stature, he has drawn multiple comps to Adam Eaton as he's viewed more as a 10-15 home run-type whose speed will help inflate his slugging percentages early in his career before he grows into more power as he matures. A 2019 MLB selection, Carroll might be one of the rare fast-to-the-majors high school draftees.
10. Maltese Falcons: LHP Asa Lacy, Royals
Tools: Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 60 | Control: 55
The Falcons are back on the clock with the 10th overall pick as the draft continues to break heavily on arms. Lacy had a legitimate argument to go first overall in 2020 as the best college pitcher in the draft, and a left-hander to boot, but the early end to the season probably put an end to that possibility. He flashed No. 1 stuff before the world ended, touching 98, sitting 93-94 deep into starts, with a plus changeup and an above-average slider, all with a good delivery that has him taking a big step toward the plate. His command and control lagged behind a little, especially when he just tries to throw hard and harder when he falls behind or needs a swing and miss, but that’s more a function of inexperience than mechanical or physical deficiency. All of those traits could have him go well before the 10th pick with the lefty hoping to push his way to Double-A in 2021.
11. *Spokane Fightin' Fish: 1B Triston Casas, Red Sox
*Acquired from Alamo Short Stacks for RHP Yu Darvish
Hitting: 55. Power: 65. Run: 40. Fielding: 55. Arm: 50
The Fightin' Fish have suddenly reloaded and look to be a contender yet again after dipping to 10th place in 2019. With Casey Mize and Julio Rodriguez at the top of a deep Farm System, the Fish are hoping for another strong run in the near future which aligns well with the selection of slugger Triston Casas. In an era where first basemen are rarely considered top prospects, Casas has an offensive ceiling that allows him to fit the bill. He already has the size and strength to launch moonshots from left-center to right field. He has some swing-and-miss to his game, like most big power hitters, but he’s shown the self-awareness and aptitude to cover holes. That trait was evident at the alternate site, where he showed an improved ability to turn on and backspin velocity on the inner half, while continuing to drive pitches away to the opposite field. That all-fields approach is evidence of a player committed to being more than an all-or-nothing hitter. Casas, who considers Joey Votto a model, spreads out his stance and chokes up with two strikes. His strike-zone awareness ranks among the best in the system. While Casas was drafted as a third baseman, his future is at first base, where he has a chance to be at least an above-average defender given his wingspan and solid arm strength. Casas made a compelling case to open 2021 at Double-A with his performance at the alternate site. Some in the organization believe he is sufficiently advanced to fast track to the majors by the end of the season. Even if Casas travels a more conservative time frame, team officials believe he will become a middle-of-the-lineup staple for years to come.
Houston Astros Cuban import Pedro Leon, a $4M International signee, is another name to watch with this selection.
12. Burlingame Blue Ducks: C Luis Campusano, Padres
Tools: Hit: 55 | Power: 60 | Run: 30 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 55
Drafting catchers in general, especially this early, is risky business as their development is as staggered as any position in baseball. But given the two-catcher system and presence of Joey Bart in the system, the Ducks could look for gold with the selection of Luis Campusano. The Padres young backstop has come on so quickly as a prospect on both sides of the ball that the Padres have been willing to trade away most of their other catchers — Austin Hedges, Francisco Mejía, Blake Hunt and Luis Torrens have all left the organization in deals in the last six months — to clear the way for him to be their catcher of the future. He has great bat control, rarely striking out, and as he’s gotten stronger he’s been making harder contact and driving the ball more in the air; his one ball in play in his brief major-league call-up was a flyball hit at 101.1 mph. He’s also improved substantially as a catcher since signing, with a plus arm and at least average receiving skills. The Padres are right to bet on him; a catcher with this kind of bat is extremely valuable which was shown by his California League co-MVP and batting title. At age 22, the wait should be long with the Ducks having dreams of not having to touch the catcher position in Auction until 2025.
13. Cloverdale Clovers: RHP Max Meyer, Marlins
Tools: Fastball: 70 | Slider: 70 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55
The Clovers have drafted and developed pitchers as well as any club in the RDBL and could have another top-tier fit in Meyer. He might only be a 6-foot right-hander, but he’s been up to 100 mph as a starter with a hellacious slider, and there’s consensus that he can stick as a starter despite the size and frame. The University of Minnesota had him throw sliders way too often, but his fastball plays while the development of his changeup will be the key to sticking in the rotation. An athletic build and great delivery should allow the college draftee to move quickly through the Minors but he is drafted with the risk he ends up at the back-end of a bullpen.
14. Lunatic Fringe: SS/2B Jeter Downs, Red Sox
Tools: Hit: 55 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 50
The Fringe hold one of the more loaded Keeper Rosters and while 2021 will mark the final year for many of their offensive stars, the rotation will largely be intact making them contenders again in 2022. With that in mind, GM Tony Guglielmi would love to find a piece to add to that unit which makes Jeter Downs an excellent fit. Downs has been traded twice now, with the second deal bringing him to the Red Sox as part of the return for Mookie Betts, just in time for the second base job in Boston to open up right in front of him. Downs is an advanced hitter for his age, making hard contact with a line drive-oriented swing that helped him lead the High-A California League in doubles in 2019 while he had the league’s 11th-lowest strikeout rate. He’s played primarily shortstop, but he’s going to end up at another position, most likely second base, where he should be above average. He may not have the huge upside of other prospects on this list, but he has a pretty high floor as someone who’ll hit around .300 with a ton of doubles, a strong OBP, and some added value with likely eligibility at multiple positions.
15. Asti Grape Stompers: RHP Quinn Priester, Pirates
Tools: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 60 | Slider: 40 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55
The Grapes hold 13 available spots in their Farm System which will allow GM Terry Shelley to reach for the moon with their top selection. With little work as a pro, there's risk in the selection of Quinn Priester but it comes with substantial upside. Priester was the first high school pitcher selected in the 2019 draft and was dominant in instructional league this past fall, bumping 97 in an outing where he faced the first high school pitcher selected in the 2020 draft, Philadelphia’s Mick Abel. Priester was mostly a fastball/curveball guy in high school, with the curveball projecting to plus, but the Pirates have added a slider that shows some promise and have had him use his changeup more, since he barely needed it in high school. He’s got a great frame with broad shoulders and is already starting to fill out; while his delivery was already good in high school, with a repeatable arm action and good use of his lower half to generate velocity. High school pitchers are a risky bunch, but this is exactly where you’d want such a prospect to be 18 months out of the draft, and if he keeps getting stronger his ceiling might be higher than many previously thought.
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