The 2022 Reserve Draft will be unlike any other we have seen in Roger Dorn Baseball League History as the addition of a third season of control to players selected in the Reserve Draft is likely to significantly alter the landscape of value placed on picks. The conclusion of the Auction Draft has always been a trendy time to round out a pitching staff with an injured starter knowing you can secure a third season of control from that selection. With that benefit carried over to the Reserve Draft, injured starters like Tyler Glasnow could be among the first players off the board if they aren't selected in the Auction.
With the unpredictability of who will fall, our first pass at the 2022 Reserve Mock Draft will focus on the top available prospects. Additionally, we will make the assumption that late season big league call-up Shane Baz will start 2022 in the big leagues considering he was thought of strongly enough within the Tampa Bay Rays organization to make a start in the NLDS. If he were eligible, Baz would be projected as the top overall pick.
1. Cloverdale Clovers: SS Anthony Volpe, NYY
Volpe is the prime example of a prospect whose development caught everyone by surprise because it happened behind closed doors. The strength he added during the 2020 shutdown filled in the missing pieces of a profile characterized by instincts and work ethic, and the result was a player with so few flaws that he may push for a promotion by his 21st birthday. While Volpe remains the focus, catcher Gabriel Moreno remains in play while right-hander Shane Baz would be the likely pick if he starts in the Minor Leagues.
2. Maltese Falcons: C Gabriel Moreno, TOR
A fractured thumb limited Moreno to 37 games last season, but he showed premium hitting ability, growing power and plus defense behind the plate when he was healthy. As long as he stays on the field, he projects to give the Blue Jays yet another young, homegrown all-star. A strong start in the upper-Minors could lead to Moreno's debut as soon as this season lining him up with fellow Falcons prospects Nolan Gorman, Royce Lewis, Triston Casas and others for a potential 2023 activation.
3. Mt. Diablo Devils: RHP Cade Cavalli, WSH
Though things got pretty ugly at the last stop, it doesn't change that the 2020 first-rounder climbed two levels in his professional debut. Striking out 70 in 40 2/3 innings with a 1.77 ERA at High-A earned him a place alongside the elite pitching prospects in the game. The Devils were named Farm System of the Year and have a wave of talent set for activation or close to it. Adding Cavalli to that mix would give them another 2023 activation option to an already loaded group.
4. Lunatic Fringe: 3B Jordan Walker, STL
It wasn't totally clear what the Cardinals were getting when they drafted Walker 21st overall in 2020, but initial returns couldn't have been more promising. He obliterated baseballs, delivering premium exit velocities unreachable for most teenagers while demonstrating better-than-expected plate discipline and an aptitude for making adjustments. Walker isn't far behind Volpe as prospects who gained the most value in 2021 making him a strong bet to be off the board early this season.
5. Burlingame Blue Ducks: SS Kahlil Watson, MIA
Watson lasted to the Marlins at Pick 16, but it wouldn't shock anyone if he turned out to be the best of a loaded shortstop class, bettering even the more projectable Idaho Taters prospect Marcelo Mayer. He's loaded with tools, making up for his diminutive stature (5-feet-9) with a lightning-quick bat that should produce power without sacrificing contact to pair with excellent speed on the bases. A future with Jazz Chisholm and Watson in both the Ducks and Marlins infield is something GM Ryan Walsh can certainly dream on.
6. St. Joseph Jokers: LHP Kyle Harrison, SFG
Harrison, a De La Salle alum, was an above-slot signing after he was selected in the third round in 2020. He already looks like one of the best pitchers taken in that entire draft and could be the anchor of the Giants rotation in a few years. In his pro debut, Harrison made 23 starts for Low-A San Jose, posting a 3.19 ERA and a remarkable 157 strikeouts in 98 2/3 innings. His slider is a plus pitch and the changeup improved as the season went on. Harrison’s command can waver at times, like most young pitchers, but he wasn’t overly wild. He’ll enter 2022 as one of the top under-21 pitching prospects in baseball and a history of draftees with local ties make the St. Joseph Jokers a logical landing spot.
7. Idaho Taters: 3B Brett Baty, NYM
Several Taters prospects are knocking on the door of the big leagues allowing GM Mike Friedrich an open approach to their 1st Round selection in regards to ETA. The club has had mixed results with their pitching prospects, which they hope to change with last year's first round selection Jack Leiter. With six pitchers among their prospect group, Friedrich is reportedly focused on hitting with Baty being a logical fit. Baty mashed last year in High A at 21, and continued to hit in Double A and the Arizona Fall League with less power than expected but strong walk and contact rates. He has the core ingredients for an impact bat who hits for average, gets on base, and has doubles and home run power while playing a premium position at third.
8. Mission Viejo Maulers: SS Oswald Perez, NYY
The pressure is building on GM Chris Ferraro who's current prospect group is littered with arrows pointing down including Brendan McKay, Adrian Morejon, Griffin Canning, Kumar Rocker, Jud Fabian and Victor Robles and Taylor Trammell. That makes the 8th overall pick a critical one for the Franchise as they look to return to contention in a hurry. Ferraro could look to his favorite big league club with Oswald Peraza offering unique upside and a quick ETA. As a 21-year-old, he played at high-A and Double-A with a short visit to Triple-A to end the year, hitting well at every stop. Peraza hit 18 homers and stole 38 bases across three levels, hitting at least .286 at each level and while not projected to be a star, he figures to be a strong building block for the Maulers.
9. Meinert Hops: OF Druw Jones, High School
The Hops have a pair of 1st Round Picks and while they need talent in their upper-minors, the additional selection should allow for them to swing for the fences with Druw Jones and his longer ETA. GM Garrett Shelley has shown an affinity of big league lineage and Jones could be a special talent despite a best case activation scenario of 2026. The son of should-be Hall of Famer Andruw Jones, the outfielder is in the mix for the top overall pick in July's MLB Draft.
10. Las Vegas Aristocrats: SS Brady House, WSH
House was early on the national prep prospect scene, hitting tape-measure shots with wood bats in international competition after his freshman year in high school. He held serve as an elite prospect, showing his 70-grade raw power at a number of events and actually beating expectations defensively, with evaluators now thinking the broad-shouldered 6-foot-4, 215-pound House can stick at shortstop. There's tantalizing upside with House though some question how his swing will progress through the Minors despite crushing Rookie ball in 16 games last season.
*11. Mission Viejo Maulers: RHP Jackson Jobe, DET
Acquired from Honolulu Hammerheads (Rodon Deal)
It takes a special pitcher to be drafted third overall straight out of high school, and all indications are that Jobe is indeed special, standing out most for his slider. He's sometimes compared to Dylan Bundy, who was at one point the gold standard for pitching prospects before injuries reduced him to what he is now. That's why high schoolers make for riskier investments. Now-velocity prep right-handers are the riskiest bet in all of baseball. The reason teams still do it is because that is where Lucas Giolito, Max Fried and Jameson Taillon came from, but notice I didn't add an "et al" after those three. Those pitchers were drafted in 2010 and 2012; it's been all hope and (relative) busts since then at the top of the prep pitcher class. But it's hard to look away from the pure stuff. Jobe, the son of PGA golfer Brandt, has been up to 100 mph, has a 70-flashing breaking ball with insane spin rates, a plus-flashing changeup, plus talent (he was a real prospect as an infielder) and the components to project at least average command. Some more traditional evaluators would nitpick if forced and say they wished he was taller than 6-foot-2, but opinions are shifting in the industry to more compact pitchers having an easier time repeating their deliveries. You just want them to be big enough to hold up for 180-plus innings, which Jobe either is or can reasonably be. It's basically impossible to have this level of stuff at this age and also have above-average command (go look at Clayton Kershaw's early pro stats), so the only real critique to have on Jobe is that other pitchers of this quality have largely faltered and/or gotten hurt, so he's risky only by proxy right now.
*12. Meinert Hops: OF Michael Harris, ATL
Acquired from Alamo Short Stacks (Means/Mancini Deal)
The Hops swung for the fences with Jones at 9th overall leaving GM Garrett Shelley to likely target a prospect closer to the big leagues with their pick acquired from the Alamo Short Stacks. That could make fast-rising outfield Michael Harris a perfect fit for the Hops. Harris was Atlanta’s third-round pick in 2019 out of a Georgia high school, and was so impressive in his pro debut in the Gulf Coast League that Atlanta had him finish the summer in Low A. He started 2021 like a house on fire in High A, struggled in mid-summer, then started to make some adjustments at the plate, notably seeing more pitches to finish strongly. Harris is tooled out, a 70 runner who played 70 defense in center and showed plus power against fastballs. He struggled with pitch recognition, especially against offspeed stuff, and his production dipped as a result in midseason. There’s some reason to think he made a real adjustment later in the year, however, with a 10 percent walk rate in the second half as well. There's 25 homer/20 steal upside with Harris which would be a boon at 12th overall.
*13. Idaho Taters: OF Colton Cowser, BAL
Acquired from Spokane Fightin' Fish (Story Deal)
The Taters would be thrilled to land a pair of impact hitters with their two first round selections and even more thrilled if Colton Cowser remains on the board at 13. The fifth overall pick in the 2021 draft, Cowser became the highest drafted player in Sam Houston State history, and their first player taken in the first round since Glenn Wilson in 1980. Cowser had one of the best hit tools in the college class last year, maybe the best one, and then hit .347/.476/.429 for Low-A Delmarva in 25 games after he signed, with more walks than strikeouts. He has great bat speed and excellent hand-eye coordination, all of which should lead to high contact rates even as he moves up the ladder, but to get to power, he’ll have to make some mechanical adjustments, like creating some separation between his hip rotation and his hand movement, and keeping his weight back for longer. He has room on his frame to add some more strength, and he could end up a 20-25 homer guy with some tweaks. His floor as a corner outfielder who hits for a high average with some doubles power would still make him an everyday guy.
14. Asti Grape Stompers: 2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech
The Grapes were the only club to finish in the top five that didn't surrender their 1st Round Pick for 2022, giving GM Terry Shelley some ammo to add a strong asset to a club with Championship aspirations this season. Shelley has a reputation from dipping into the College and High School ranks early in Draft and 2022 should be no different. Jace Jung is a strong bet to be one of the first five names called in the MLB Draft in June with his bat as his carrying tool, which is fine because he may hit .300 with 30 homers on an annual basis. His aggressive nature helps him play better than his below-average speed on the bases but his defensive home remains in question. He has fringy arm strength, was erratic at third base and may not be more than adequate at second base.
15. *Maltese Falcons: 2B Nick Yorke, BOS
Acquired from Lake Merced Goutfish (Peralta Deal)
The Falcons threaded the needle of competing for Playoff spot while still rebuilding and the result as a pair of 1st Round selections to continue filling out an already impressive foundation. Masters at letting the Draft come to them, the Falcons align perfectly with second baseman Nick Yorke who's lack of toolsy skills might push others away. Yorke was the shock pick of the 2020 first round, as a bat-first second baseman without a plus tool other than his bat. He didn't have extensive years of summer performance in national events, but the Red Sox knew him well enough to be sold that the bat was plus and he didn't need to have a second plus tool to be worthy of going No. 17 overall. The Red Sox took him there as the best talent and got a discount on his bonus since other teams weren't valuing him like that. Like the Red Sox drew it up, Yorke torched low-A and high-A in 2021, hitting over .320 at both levels and hitting 14 combined homers, a bit more than expected. Yorke is so advanced in all aspects of hitting, it isn't impossible to expect average game power (15-18 homers) and possibly a 70-grade bat in the end, with fringe-to-average defense, speed and throwing tools, which is something like the (underrated) peak years of Whit Merrifield.
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