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Writer's pictureGreg Shelley

3 Up, 3 Down: Arenado Leaves Coors


This week saw the release of three Top 100 Lists and a blockbuster deal with Nolan Arenado leaving the NL West and heading to the St. Louis Cardinals.


With Free Agency also heating up, it was time for the latest 3 Up, 3 Down which is led by a number of impressive prospects across the Roger Dorn Baseball League while some veteran big leagues saw drops to their stock over the past few days.


Ke'Bryan Hayes (Minors), Taters

With hitting prospects, there is a difference between "hasn't hit for impact power" and "won't hit for impact power." Thanks to a strong hit tool and the fact most of the full-season environments he played in were pitcher-friendly parks, Ke'Bryan Hayes always fit in the first group. He exceeded even the most optimistic expectations as a rookie. A .450 BABIP obviously propped up his stats to some degree, but his 9.2% barrel rate would have ranked 22nd among qualified hitters, ahead of Mike Trout, Luke Voit and Nelson Cruz, so his performance was more skill than luck. Gold Glove caliber defense at third base ensures everyday playing time, and he should reprise his role as the Pirates No. 2 hitter and a premium activation for the Taters and GM Mike Friedrich.


Julio Rodriguez (Minors), Fightin' Fish

Few prospects have risen the ranks as quickly as Julio Rodriguez who was placed in the Top 5 of both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline's Top 100 Lists this week. Rodriguez was just 18 years old when he ripped through Low A and High A in 2019, hitting like someone three years his senior, with a very impressive contact rate for any prospect at those stops, and he probably would have spent most of 2020 at Double A had there been a season. A dominant 2021 season could position the outfielder for a 2022 activation.


CJ Abrams, Free Agent

Abrams, the sixth overall pick in the 2019 draft out of a Georgia high school, rose significantly in the industry’s eyes after his strong pro debut that year, and reports from this past summer and fall have been even more glowing because he’s showing more power than expected at this young age. That surge has the shortstop suddenly in the mix for the top overall pick in the 2021 Reserve Draft.


Abrams is an 80 runner with great bat speed and a direct, contact-oriented swing, but as he’s gotten stronger he’s now driving the ball with more authority and showing bigger exit velocities as a result. While the presence of Fernando Tatis Jr. might lead to a position change, Abrams is a no-doubt shortstop with a quick release and good actions; he could play center, or he could be a Gold Glove-caliber defender at second. He’s a star at any position, and if the Padres ever do have to move Tatis because he outgrows shortstop, they have a replacement on the way.


Nolan Arenado (2/$55), Stacks

All signs of Arenado's down season in 2020 point to a lingering shoulder injury that zapped his power and led to career low numbers in almost every major category. While the numbers are a dent to his value, Friday night's trade to the St. Louis Cardinals is a major body blow. Arenado is a lifetime. 322/.376/.609 at home and .263/.322/.471 on the road and will now call Busch Stadium home 81 games a year while saying goodbye to Coors Field.


The Stacks still hold Arenado in their plans for 2021 according to sources but are anxious to see the star third baseman have a healthy camp before making the final call.


Masahiro Tanaka (2/$19), Devils

Given his $19 contract, Tanaka's chances of being retained by the Mt. Diablo Devils for 2021 were already in doubt but the right-hander took the decision out of GM Jason Watson's hands this week as he agreed to terms to return to Japan on a 2-year deal. Tanaka's move to Japan officially ends a seven-year run with the Yankees, with whom he went 78-46 with a 3.74 ERA and 8.4 K/9 across 174 outings while picking up two All-Star nods along the way. Given that he'll be 34 years old by the time his deal with the Golden Eagles expires, it's more likely than not that his time in North America is over.


Chris Sale, Free Agent

According to WEEI's Rob Bradford, rehabbing starter Chris Sale (elbow) experienced "a setback around the holidays due to neck stiffness." The good news is that Sale has already resumed throwing on flat ground as he continues his long road to recovery from Tommy John surgery, but this neck issue helps to explain why he has not yet gotten on a mound. He had the reconstructive elbow procedure in March and probably won't be an option for the Red Sox rotation until sometime this May at the earliest. The 31-year-old left-hander is under contract with the Red Sox through 2024 and will be one of the more interesting names to watch in the Auction Draft.


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