With the MLB Free Agent market winding down, big league depth charts are growing increasingly clear. The most interesting development for Roger Dorn Baseball League Front Offices are the paths to consistent playing time for activation-ready players and things are looking promising for a wave of young players that could lead to the largest activation class in League History.
Today's 3 Up, 3 Down is led by a trio of prospects who look primed for 2023 roles following the moves over the last few weeks from their respective big league clubs while the another move in New York could have the arrival of a young Asti Grape Stompers catcher on hold.
RHP Grayson Rodriguez (Minors), Fringe
It felt like this would be the offseason in which Baltimore, fresh off a surprising run at an AL Wild Card spot, would get aggressive in its attempt to build around a homegrown core with supplemental pieces from the free agent or trade markets.
The O’s have added Kyle Gibson, but as things stand now in early January, they seem to have left the path clear for Rodriguez, who likely would have debuted in 2022 if not for a lat strain, to make the season-opening rotation. His deep pitch mix, headlined by a 70-grade fastball and changeup, would certainly play quickly in the bigs, and it wouldn’t surprise if he had a quick impact in the same way Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson did in 2022.
The Fringe are loaded with pitching options including 2022 Pitching Prospect of the Year Triston McKenzie so expect GM Tony Guglielmi to have an active Spring on the trade front to make room for Rodriguez.
1B Triston Casas (Minors), Falcons
There’s little doubt that the first-base gig is Casas’ now. The official release of Eric Hosmer on Dec. 22 made sure that Casas was the only American Heritage High School alum going for a spot at Fenway Park’s cold corner. Bobby Dalbec does provide a right-handed option, but his subpar 2022 campaign should have taken him out of the running. Casas showed signs of his promising power and good defense in his 27 games with the Sox last year, and that may have been enough to keep them from chasing other first-base options in the winter.
The Falcons were planning to play things slow with Casas, but with Hosmer out the door the club is likely to make the move on his Opening Day activation.
IF/OF Brett Baty (Minors), Hops
How many different gloves should Baty pack for Port St. Lucie? When it looked like Correa was heading to Queens, you could bet that New York’s best infield prospect would see more time in left field, where he’s made 29 Minor League starts. Now that Correa ss going back to Minnesota, the path to playing time at Baty’s natural position remains open. It’s likely been an offseason of zigs and zags, but it’s looking like it’ll end where it began -- with Baty as a Major League-ready bat who can hit for average and power and will compete with Eduardo Escobar for playing time at the hot corner.
A big Spring could push Baty right into the mix for the Hops Opening Day roster. With Shohei Ohtani set to return at $88, a $1 activation is a critical help to the salary cap for GM Garrett Shelley.
2B Trevor Story (2/$39), Idaho Taters
There were concerns with Trevor Story with the "Big Contract in New Place" theory as well as him leaving Coors Field in play along with the usual dose of health reservations with the talented hitter. It turns out each of them were well-founded as they all came into play in 2022. Story performed as a league-average player in the 94 games he did play with good counting stats, but missing nearly 60 games with a hand injury and a foot injury limited his overall production. A surprising jump in his strikeout rate coming over to the American League helped push his batting average to a career-worst .238 while his .251 average in Fenway could not save him. 2018 remains the only season in which Story has successfully avoided some type of injury, and his 2023 is off to an ominous start after he underwent an internal bracing procedure on the UCL in his right elbow during January. He's expected to be sidelined for 4-to-6 months, so he's unlikely to be back on the field until at least June.
While Story was a lock to be released, his surgery could push the infielder completely out of the Auction while making him an intriguing name for an early selection in the Reserve Draft with the 2022 rule addition allowing a third year of control for those selections.
RP Liam Hendriks (2/$15), Alamo Short Stacks
Hendriks was a key part of the 2022 Alamo Short Stacks Championship run, helping form a 3-man closing committee that totaled 118 saves and 997.0 points. While his cost was likely to prevent a return, Hendriks announced Sunday that he has been diagnosed with Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma which leaves his 2023 value in the air. Hendriks began treatment Monday and said in a statement he's "confident that I will make a full recovery and be back on the mound as soon as possible." It's obviously going to take time, though, with general manager Rick Hahn saying in his own statement that "we do not expect to have any updates on Liam's playing status prior to Opening Day at the very earliest." In much less important news, the White Sox will have an opening at closer while Hendriks is away. Kendall Graveman and perhaps Reynaldo Lopez loom as the most likely options to fill that void.
Francisco Álvarez (Minors), Asti Grape Stompers
New York first added even more to its catching depth by agreeing to a deal with Omar Narváez in December and then dipped into it by sending James McCann to Baltimore. That would seemingly put the club’s top prospect into a holding pattern. Álvarez has a Major League-ready bat but missed out on needed developmental time behind the plate when he suffered a knee injury in last year’s second half.
With Narváez and Tomás Nido likely holding down the Mets’ two catching options on Opening Day, Álvarez’s best chance at opening in the bigs might be as a lefty-righty DH platoon with Daniel Vogelbach. It’s likely the Mets would want Álvarez in an everyday catching role at Triple-A Syracuse anyway to iron out his framing and blocking before ascending back to Queens.
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