With Baseball America, MLB Pipeline and The Athletic's Top 100 Prospect Lists now posted, we wanted to cover some of the biggest value increases and decreases over the last year across baseball. With the 2020 season and draft lost due to COVID, the 2021 Reserve Draft was made up of two classes making it one of the deeper talent pools we have seen in RDBL History. A wave of 2022 activations will again leave many holes to be filled in Farm Systems across the league while the addition of a third year of control for MLB Reserve Draft picks could shakeup a normally prospect heavy approach from clubs.
SS Anthony Volpe, Free Agent (NYY)
Volpe created the highest increase in prospect value with his 2021 performance of any player in the Minor Leagues which has him squarely in the mix for the top overall pick by the Cloverdale Clovers. He wasn’t the traditional, tooled-out high school shortstop; he was praised for his baseball IQ, his instincts, his feel for the game, but didn’t have a clearly plus tool at the time, or even that summer in short-season Pulaski. Volpe worked hard during the pandemic to add strength, and it’s evident now that he had a few plus tools all along, including his ability to hit and to play shortstop. He’s making better quality contact and driving the ball at a better angle now too, while his understanding of the strike zone looks like it’s elite. He hit .294/.423/.604 between Low A and High A as a 20-year-old, with 27 homers and 33 steals in 42 attempts, while playing above-average to plus defense at short all year. He’s almost certainly the reason the Yankees haven’t gone after one of the big shortstop free agents this winter, and I think they’re right. He’s going to be a star, and very soon at that.
C Tyler Soderstrom, Devils (OAK)
Soderstrom was the 26th pick in the 2020 MLB Draft before GM Jason Watson nailed his 5th Round Pick in 2021, grabbing him 65th overall. His pro debut came this year when he went to Low A to start the minor-league season. He played just 57 games for Stockton, but hit .306/.390/.568 with 12 homers and just a 24 percent strikeout rate. He would have ranked second in the league in slugging and fifth in OBP if he’d played in enough games, even though he was among the 10 youngest hitters in the California League’s remnants. His bat is likely to move him off catcher, potentially to third base, but it's special enough that it would matter to his value when he arrives. Soderstrom is one of the key young assets for a Devils unit that was named Farm System of the Year in 2021.
2021 High School Shortstops
RDBL Teams continue to reach beyond the Minor Leagues for talent in Reserve Drafts and GMs Terry Shelley and Mike Friedrich made a pair of high school shortstop selections that look awfully smart now. The Grapes aggressively selected Jordan Lawlar 15th overall while the Taters hit the jackpot with Marcelo Mayer at 97th overall. Both are considered top 30 prospects a year later and look to be key assets for both clubs.
OF Jasson Dominguez, Maulers (NYY)
The Yankees handling of Dominguez was quite puzzling while tossing in a lost year of development due to COVID, making it far too soon to be considered with last year's performance. But when you are tagged with the name "The Martian" and your RDBL Franchise surrendered three assets (Taijuan Walker, 1st and 3rd Round Picks) to acquire you, the expectations are high. He's still routinely in Top 100 lists, but a substantial dip has come after finally seeing him on a Minor League field.
LHP MacKenzie Gore, Stacks (SD)
Gore had a miserable 2021, losing his delivery early in the spring, spending several weeks in Peoria at the Padres’ complex to try to rework and simplify it, and having only intermittent success after his return. He remains incredibly athletic with three pitches flashing as easy plus offerings. His arm stroke is shorter now, and he’s had days when he’s repeated it well and thrown strikes, but he’s also had days where he slips back into old habits. There’s still a No. 1 starter ceiling here but there's nothing he has shown on the field over the last two seasons to feel optimistic about that outcome. Given his drop in value, the Stacks have no choice but to cross their fingers on his return to form for the 2019 RDBL Pitching Prospect of the Year.
RHP Nate Pearson, Taters (TOR)
Pearson was considered among the best pitching prospects in baseball entering the 2020 season but injuries continue to derail his potential. He’s only managed to throw 33.0 innings in the big leagues over the last two seasons, including 12 appearances late last season that covered 15.0 frames. Pearson worked in relief last season after spending most of the year working back from a variety of injuries, and the hope is that he’ll enter Spring Training fully healthy and be able to stay that way throughout 2022. As far as injury luck goes, he’s due for things to swing his way at some point but it's fair to ask the question if a future in a big league starting rotation has already been answered with a potential high-leverage relief role potentially being the better fit for his skillset.
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