Rumor Central: Deep Crop of Starters Available Before Draft Day

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With less than six weeks until the March 22 draft in Redwood City, the RDBL pitching market is already taking shape — and it’s clear this off-season will be defined by innings, not hype. Several contenders are projecting within striking distance of the 8,600-point target but sit unevenly constructed, heavy on bats and light on reliable rotation volume, while others are carrying surplus arms on team-friendly contracts.

The Keeper sheet shows a widening gap between expensive frontline starters and profit-contract mid-rotation arms, creating a natural trade ecosystem before auction dollars start flying. In a league where IP is currency and regression arrives quickly, the teams that correctly identify which 2025 breakouts were skill-based — and which were smoke — will control the board before Draft Day even begins.

Pitchers are ordered by CBS Projections for 2026.

SP Matthew Boyd (2D/$5), Alamo Short Stacks

Boyd’s 463.0-point 2025 wasn’t just volume — it came with a velocity bump and improved strike-throwing that stabilized his WHIP profile after years of volatility. The 516.0-point CBS projection assumes that late-career command refinement sticks, which is reasonable given how he finished the season. At $5 and fresh off the 16th most pitching points in the RDBL in 2025, he could serve as a key piece to start rebuilding a Stacks Farm System that lacks depth if GM Greg Shelley decides to go in that direction.

SP Logan Gilbert (2/$55), Cloverdale Clovers

Gilbert’s 340-point 2025 was slightly below his 469.0 three-year average largely because his strikeout rate dipped while he leaned more heavily into pitch efficiency. The 424.0 projection reflects a likely rebound if the swing-and-miss returns closer to career norms. At $55, he’s expensive, but he’s also one of the league’s safest bets for 180+ quality innings. Cloverdale can shop him as a high-floor SP1 for teams that don’t want to gamble on health-risk aces.

SP Luis Castillo (2/$33), Mt. Diablo Devils

Castillo’s 411.0 points in 2025 came on the back of strong durability and a heavy fastball/slider workload that still generated weak contact even with modest K regression. His 438.0 three-year average shows this wasn’t an outlier season but part of a steady veteran run. The 388.0 projection bakes in some age-related slippage, but nothing catastrophic. At $33, he’s priced like a dependable SP2 and could appeal to contenders who value stability over ceiling.

SP Ryne Nelson (2FA/$5), Nashville Aristocrats

Nelson’s 403-point breakout in 2025 was fueled by improved fastball command and more consistent secondary usage, not just BABIP luck. His three-year average (282.0) suggests growth rather than pure randomness, though the 375.0 projection still expects some normalization. At $5, he’s exactly the kind of breakout arm that rebuilding teams flip before arbitration-like inflation hits. Nashville can pitch him as a cheap, ascending innings source with runway.

SP Ryan Weathers (2D/$5), Maltese Falcons

Weathers’ 2025 cratered to just 75 points because of injury interruptions that derailed his workload and consistency. The 373.0 projection reflects optimism that a healthy offseason restores his mid-rotation form and ground-ball heavy approach. His three-year average (94.0) shows how uneven the development path has been, but the tools have always been there. At 2D/$5 with a 2027 option at $15, he’s a low-risk bounce-back lottery ticket the Falcons can either hold or sell to a health-optimistic contender.

SP George Kirby (2/$24), Alamo Short Stacks

Kirby’s 242-point 2025 was largely a product of diminished strikeout totals and a few blow-up outings rather than structural decline after a late-season start. His 393.0 three-year average and 370.0 projection suggest the command foundation remains intact. He still profiles as one of the league’s best walk suppressors, which matters enormously in the RDBL scoring format. At 2/$24, he’s a classic rebound SP2 candidate with room to outperform salary.

SP Luis Severino (3D/$15), San Mateo Oppo Tacos

Severino’s 258 points in 2025 reflected inconsistency in both health and pitch mix execution, particularly with his slider shape fluctuating month to month. The 359.0 projection assumes better durability and a stabilized arsenal. His 211.0 three-year average screams volatility, but also ceiling if he strings together a full workload. At $15, he’s the type of upside bet contenders will justify if they believe in the medical reports.

SP Cole Ragans (3/$36), Honolulu Hammerheads

Ragans’ 114-point 2025 was derailed by missed time and command lapses that spiked his baserunner totals. His 283.0 three-year average and 352.0 projection reflect confidence that the swing-and-miss arsenal is still real. When healthy, he misses bats at an elite clip, which translates beautifully to RDBL’s IP-weighted scoring. At 3/$36, he’s a risk-reward arm whose value hinges entirely on health narrative.

SP Seth Lugo (2/$18), Lake Merced Goutfish 

Lugo’s 277-point 2025 was quieter than his 384 three-year average, largely due to fewer dominant stretches rather than collapse. The 350.0 projection sees him as a steady innings sponge with above-average command. His pitchability keeps ratios stable even without overpowering velocity. At $18, he’s a mid-rotation glue piece contenders quietly covet.

SP Brady Singer (2D/$5), Lake Merced Goutfish

Singer’s 340-point 2025 coincided with sharper command and more consistent slider usage that improved weak-contact rates. The 347.0 projection essentially validates that last season wasn’t a mirage. His 283.0 three-year average suggests growth rather than randomness. At $5, he’s one of the better profit contracts on the board.

SP Tyler Glasnow (2/$29), Meinert Hops. 

Glasnow’s 256-point 2025 again showed the tension between elite per-inning dominance and durability concerns. His 313.0 three-year average and 342.0 projection show the ceiling is intact when healthy. Strikeouts and IP efficiency remain premium traits in this scoring environment. At $29, he’s a contender’s calculated gamble.

SP Spencer Strider (2/$44), Nashville Aristocrats

Strider’s 197-point 2025 was more about health interruption than skill erosion. The 335.0 projection anticipates a workload rebound and restoration of elite strikeout dominance. His 212.0 three-year average is suppressed by the shortened season but still hints at top-tier upside. At $44, he’s a swing-for-the-fences acquisition.

RP Trevor Megill (2FA/$5), San Mateo Oppo Tacos

Megill’s 231-point 2025 reflected stable late-inning usage and improved strike efficiency. The 334 projection suggests continued leverage role volume. His 169.0 three-year average shows he’s grown into consistency rather than flashing it. At $5, he’s affordable bullpen reinforcement.

RP Kenley Jansen (3/$2), Lunatic Fringe

Jansen’s 279-point 2025 showed that even with diminished velocity, command and role stability still matter. The 308.0 projection expects similar usage and efficiency. His 232.0 three-year average reinforces reliability. At $2, he’s one of the cheapest dependable bullpen arms in the league.

SP David Peterson (2D/$5), Burlingame Blue Ducks

Peterson’s 292-point 2025 came via improved strike throwing and better sequencing against right-handed hitters. The 303.0 projection keeps him in that steady mid-rotation band. His 235 three-year average supports consistency over flash. At $5, he’s an extremely movable depth piece.

SP Grayson Rodriguez (3R/$5), Lunatic Fringe

Rodriguez scored 0 points in 2025 due to injury absence, but his 152 three-year average and 285.0 projection show legitimate rebound upside. His fastball/slider combo still profiles as impact-level when healthy. At $5, he’s a high-ceiling stash rather than a sunk cost. The Fringe can either cash out on belief or bet on health.

RP Devin Williams (3D/$15), Lake Merced Goutfish

Williams’ 190-point 2025 was solid but not dominant, with slightly reduced strikeout rates compared to peak seasons. The 244.0 projection expects similar high-leverage usage. His 221.0 three-year average shows steady bullpen contribution. At $15, he’s priced as a premium reliever rather than a cheat code.

SP Shane Baz (3D/$15), Cloverdale Clovers

Baz’s 249-point 2025 reflected flashes of electric stuff but inconsistent command within outings. The 222.0 projection assumes modest regression but sustained role security. His 236.0 three-year average suggests he’s useful when available. At $15, he’s a ceiling play with developmental upside still intact.