The Lake Merced Goutfish have quickly filled the production of Free Agent departure Will Smith, agreeing to a deal with the Honolulu Hammerheads for catcher Willson Contreras (2/$23) on Saturday. The Goutfish will acquire Contreras and a 2022 4th Round Pick (56th Overall) in exchange for outfielder Dom Smith (2R/$3) and a 2022 3rd Round Pick (41st Overall).
Contreras resumed his power-hitting abilities in 2021, but did so while posting a career-worst 28.6% strikeout rate which pulled his average down to a career-low .237. His plate discipline was mostly consistent with previous efforts and the strikeouts were more correlated to him taking called strikes (16% rate was also a career worst). His future in Chicago remains up in the air as he was rumored as a virtual lock to be traded this Winter but Spring Training has now opened up rumblings of extension talks. Contreras is currently projected as the fifth best scoring catcher by CBS for 2022.
Smith's first full season with regular playing time did not go as planned as his production fell across the board. However, things may not be as discouraging as they seem. Smith's K% was in line with past seasons, though his 6.5% BB% was his lowest since 2018. A low BABIP and a precipitous decline in HR/FB were the culprits. While Smith's .368 BABIP in 2020 wreaked of good luck, his .298-mark last season was artificially low, with 2019's .320 most representative of his talent. His 10.9% HR/FB rate was wholly unlucky as his exit velocity on fly balls was like 2020. Further, Smith's average fly ball distance was eight feet longer last season compared to 2020, but his 2020 HR/FB was 22.2%. Smith's xStats from last season most resemble those from 2019, but he was also lucky that season. A rebound is in store, with playing time hinging on a universal DH since the Mets fortified their outfield though he has been rumored as a potential trade candidate for the very active MLB club.
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