In one of the most memorable Winter Meeting weeks in MLB History, several more high-profile Free Agents struck deals led by Aaron Judge's return to the Bronx.
Here's the latest on value changes across the RDBL:
OF Aaron Judge (3/$31), Mission Viejo Maulers
Judge's return to New York keeps the outfielder positioned as the highest projected offensive player entering 2023 following his record-breaking American League MVP season in 2022. The 2022 Roger Dorn Baseball League Hitter of the Year broke Mike Trout's RDBL Record for single season points with 652.5, a mark that could stand for quite a while.
Judge will be back in the outfield for the Mission Viejo Maulers in 2023 in the final year of his $31 contract.
SS Xander Bogaerts (2/$44), Cloverdale Clovers
The Padres closed out the Winter Meetings with a stunner, reportedly agreeing to an 11-year, $280MM contract with Xander Bogaerts. The deal does not contain any options or opt-out provisions, although it does include a full no-trade clause.
Momentum on a deal looked to be the hands of the Boston Red Sox Wednesday afternoon, but the eye-opening commitment from the Padres sealed the deal late Wednesday. Bogaerts will likely call shortstop home for the duration of 2023 but could find some opportunities at third base in the event of Manny Machado missing time. The looming factor in San Diego is Machado's opt-out at the end of 2023 which could open up a full-time move to the hot corner in 2024 for Bogaerts.
Bogaerts is a lock to return to the Clovers on a 2/$44 deal after a 425.0 point output in 2022, ranking third in scoring at his position.
C Willson Contreras (3/$23), Asti Grape Stompers
Contreras inked a five year pact for $87.5M with the St. Louis Cardinals to replace Yadier Molina behind the plate. Contreras is one of the game’s more consistent offensive threats behind the plate. He’s been an average or better hitter in every season of his career. Over parts of seven MLB seasons, he carries a .256/.349/.459 line. While he’s never topped 25 home runs, he’s eclipsed the 20-homer mark on four separate occasions. With only a half-season of action in 2016 and the truncated schedule in 2020, Contreras only once failed to reach 20 longballs over a full year of playing time (back during a 2018 campaign that proved his worst year to date).
Contreras performed as well as he ever has during his platform year, putting up a .243/.349/.466 line with 22 homers across 487 trips to the plate in his final season as a Cub. Those slash stats are about par for the course for Contreras’ career, but they become increasingly valuable in a league where offense was down significantly. By measure of wRC+, his production was 32 percentage points above league average, the highest such mark of his career.
That offense is even rarer when compared to his positional peers. On the whole, catchers mustered just a .228/.295/.368 line this past season. Of the 29 backstops with 300+ plate appearances, Contreras trailed only Alejandro Kirk, Adley Rutschman and his younger brother William Contreras in on-base percentage. Only William Contreras, Cal Raleigh, J.T. Realmuto and Travis d’Arnaud had a higher slugging mark.
Contreras posted 295.5 points, finishing fifth in catcher scoring and is a strong bet to return on his 3/$23 to the Asti Grape Stompers.
OF Masataka Yoshida (Free Agent)
The Red Sox have made a big addition to their lineup, agreeing to terms with outfielder Masataka Yoshida. It’s reportedly a five-year, $90MM guarantee, and the deal does not contain any option provisions or opt-out clauses. The Japanese star had just been made available via the posting system this week, but the Sox struck quickly with a record-setting contract offer.
Yoshida has been one of the more accomplished hitters in Japan for the past few seasons. He’s appeared in NPB for the last seven years and carries a career .327/.421/.539 line. The left-handed hitter has reached base in more than 40% of his plate appearances in each of the past six seasons, and he topped a 1.000 OPS for the first time in 2022. Yoshida hit .335/.447/.561 through 508 trips to the dish this year.
RDBL Front Offices are certain to have a close eye on Yoshida who topped Seiya Suzuki's $85M commitment from the Chicago Cubs last season. Suzuki received $22 in Auction, a ballpark that Yoshida is likely to approach in 2023.
LHP Andrew Heaney (2D/$5), Burlingame Blue Ducks
Despite just 72 2/3 inning of work, Heaney had a strong market this Winter and inked a 2-year, 27M deal with incentives that could take it up to $37M. He will also hold the option to opt-out following the 2023 season.
For 2022, Heaney seemed to take a step forward performance wise, but without completely eliminating those concerning tendencies. The Dodgers signed him to a one-year, $8.5MM deal and then changed his pitch repertoire. His curveball and sinker were eliminated in favor of a new slider to pair with his four-seamer and the occasional changeup. The results were excellent as Heaney struck out an incredible 35.5% of batters faced, well beyond his own track record and second to only Spencer Strider among pitchers with at least 70 innings pitched on the year.
However, injuries were once again a problem, with Heaney making multiple trips to the IL due to shoulder issues throughout the year. In the end, he made 14 starts and two relief appearances, getting to 72 2/3 innings pitched for the whole season, with three more added in the playoffs. The long ball was still present as well, as he allowed 14 homers in that sample, leading to a HR/FB rate of 17.9%. Despite the massive strikeout rate, those home runs bumped his ERA up to 3.10.
The Ducks are loaded with pitching options for the 2023 Keeper Roster making Heaney a potential trade candidate before Draft Day. With control through 2024 on the new 3D/$15 contract, Heaney is certain to have a market if GM Ryan Walsh moves in that direction.
RP Kenley Jansen (3/$6), Alamo Short Stacks
Jansen finished 2022 ranked as the seventh best reliever with 41 saves, lining him up for a Keeper spot somewhere entering 2023. The Alamo Short Stacks are pressed for Keeper spots with Emmanuel Clase a lock to already return in one of the reliever spots, making Jansen a potential trade candidate this Winter.
LHP Jose Quintana (2FA/$5), Asti Grape Stompers
DFA'd in 2021 and pitching on a one-year, 2M deal in 2022, Quintana was one of the surprises of last season. The Asti Grape Stompers scooped him off Waivers and they were rewarded with a 420.0 point season that got better as it went on. The southpaw made 20 starts for the Bucs, posting a 3.50 ERA. His 20.6% strikeout rate was a bit below average, but he paired that with strong walk and ground ball rates of 7.2% and 45%, respectively. He and Chris Stratton were dealt to the Cardinals at the deadline and Quintana continued his strong campaign in St. Louis. He made another 12 starts with a 2.01 ERA, finishing the year with a 2.93 mark across 32 starts and 165 2/3 innings.
The Grapes are starving for offense, making Quintana or one of their other Keeper-worthy starting pitchers potential trade candidates this Winter.
RHP Jameson Taillon (3/$16), Mt. Diablo Devils
The Cubs agreed to a four-year, $68M deal with Jameson Taillon this week, setting him up for a potential return to the Mt. Diablo Devils for 2023.
Over his two-year run in pinstripes, he worked to a 4.08 ERA across 321 2/3 innings. The Texas native posted a 21.9% strikeout rate that’s right around league average and walked fewer than 6% of his opponents. His ground-ball and hard contact rates allowed were middle-of-the-pack, but he pounded the strike zone and handled hitters from both sides of the dish reasonably well. His stuff also returned to just under pre-surgery levels. Taillon’s fastball has checked in right around 94 MPH in each of the past two seasons, while he relies on a mid-80s slider and a low-80s curveball as his secondary pitches.
Taillon posted a strong 383.0 points in 2022, well worth the $16 investment. GM Jason Watson does have a number of options in the rotation and with the expected drop of Bryce Harper, they could look to shed an arm for some additional help on offense.
RHP Taijuan Walker (2D/$5), Lunatic Fringe
One day after landing Trea Turner on a stunning 11-year contract, the Phillies bolstered their rotation by agreeing to a four-year deal with free-agent right-hander Taijuan Walker, guaranteeing $72MM on the deal.
Walker, a once-elite pitching prospect who pitched just 14 innings from 2017-18 due to shoulder surgery and Tommy John surgery, has quickly shaken the “injury-prone” label once associated with his name. Since signing a one-year deal to return to the Mariners in advance of the 2020 season, the 6’4″, 235-pound righty has made a nearly full slate of starts: 11 games in the 60-game 2020 season followed by consecutive seasons of 29 starts with the Mets in 2021-22.
Along the way, Walker has pitched to a 3.80 ERA with a 21.5% strikeout rate, a 7.8% walk rate and 43.4% ground-ball rate in a total of 369 2/3 innings. While he’s hardly a flamethrower, Walker sits 93-94 mph with his four-seamer and complements that heater with a four-pitch mix of secondary offerings: splitter, sinker, slider and a more seldom-used curveball. He’s only averaged a bit more than 5 1/3 innings per start in recent years, but some of that could well be a function of the Mets preferring to keep him healthy.
A frequent late off-season trade candidate throughout his RDBL career, Walker could be on the move yet again this Winter. The Fringe are deep in rotation options but could use a jolt on offense after ranking 12th in hitter scoring last season.
OF Mitch Haniger (3/$11), Maltese Falcons
The Giants filled one of two openings in the outfield this week, landing Mitch Haniger on a 3-year deal for $43.5M with the option to opt-out following the 2024 season.
Earlier in his career, the Cal Poly product paired that with strong on-base marks. He reached base at a .366 clip during a 2018 season that arguably stands as his best to date, when he posted a .285/.366/.493 line over 683 plate appearances. That showing earned him an All-Star nod and an 11th-place finish in AL MVP balloting.
Injuries prevented Haniger from following up with another full season. He was off to a slower start in 2019, carrying a .220/.314/.463 line into the first week of June. An unfortunately-placed foul ball resulted in a ruptured testicle which required season-ending surgery, and the health concerns carried into 2020. He underwent core surgery over the 2019-20 offseason and ended up missing the entirety of the abbreviated season. The series of brutal health luck cost him more than 18 months of action, but he returned with an excellent 2021 campaign.
This past season again saw Haniger battle injury concerns. A high ankle sprain cost him a few months and he managed just a .246/.308/.429 line in 57 games. That was a disappointing platform season to be sure, but it doesn’t seem to have seriously changed the Giants’ projection of his long-term outlook. Haniger’s batted ball data in that limited look remained strong, as he posted a career-best 91.9 MPH average exit velocity and 47.2% hard contact rate. Over the past two seasons, he owns a .251/.316/.470 line.
The Falcons are loaded with offensive Keeper options, but Haniger is strong bet to make the cut on an affordable $11 deal, his final season of control.
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