2023 Market Overview: Third Base

The Third Base Market has already been quite hot this Winter, led by last week's trade of Nolan Arenado to the Cloverdale Clovers as the firesale of the Mission Viejo Maulers continued. It's a position that is deep at both the big league level and the upper Minors with several big name prospects ready or nearing to take over big league jobs in 2023.

Slugger Rafael Devers leads the 2023 Free Agent Class at the position after just finishing up his Rookie contract with the Alamo Short Stacks after a mid-season deal from the Cloverdale Clovers.

​Top RDBL Free Agents	Top Trade Candidates
1. Rafael Devers, Red Sox 2. Ryan McMahon, Rockies 3. DJ LeMahieu, Yankees 4. Yoan Moncada, White Sox 5. Anthony Rendon, Angels	1. Alex Bregman (2/$36), Maulers 2. Max Muncy (3/$17), Falcons 3. Justin Turner (3/$16), Devils 4. Brandon Drury (2FA/$5), Maulers 5. Ha-seong Kim (2/$1), Maulers
Top Available Prospects	Top RDBL Prospects
1. Cam Collier, Reds 2. Colt Keith, Tigers 3. Deyvison De Los Santos, D'Backs 4. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Reds 5. Jordan Westburg, Orioles	1. Gunnar Henderson, Jokers 2. Brett Baty, Hops 3. Curtis Mead, Grapes 4. Josh Jung, Taters 5. Jose Miranda, Falcons
2022 Rankings	​2023 Projections
1. Jose Ramirez (Devils), 478.0 2. Austin Riley (Heads), 468.5 3. Manny Machado (Stacks), 467.5 4. Nolan Arenado (Clovers), 438.5 5. Rafael Devers (FA), 427.5	​1. Jose Ramirez (Devils), 513.0 2. Manny Machado (Stacks), 505.5 3. Nolan Arenado (Clovers), 447.5 4. Rafael Devers (FA), 422.0 5. Alex Bregman (Maulers), 411.5

Team Needs

Idaho Taters, Asti Grape Stompers, Cloverdale Clovers, Lunatic Fringe, Lake Merced Goutfish, Mission Viejo Maulers, Burlingame Blue Ducks, Meinert Hops

Top Free Agent

Coming out of the break, Rafael Devers .324/.379/.602 was pacing for a career-best year. He then spent 10 days on the IL with a sore hamstring. After returning, Devers was unable to recapture form, posting a .248/.325/.383 line the rest of the way. Other than the 1.5-mph drop in fly-ball exit velocity, Devers' underlying skills weren't much different over the second half, but his BABIP dropped from .353 to .289. For the season, he still managed a career-best 140 wRC+, but a drop in homers and a less potent Red Sox lineup resulted in fewer than 90 runs and 90 RBI for Devers. He eclipsed the century mark in each of the prior two full seasons. His defense remained below average, but he showed signs of improvement. With Devers still just 26-year-old, his best season is probably yet to come. He doesn't run, but Devers crushes the rest of the categories. He may not be first-round material, but he's in the discussion.

Under the Radar Free Agent

Anthony Rendon is probably dead to many Angels fans, who lament the club’s $245 million investment in him. To this point, that outlay has resulted in just 157 games played in three years. One of those was the pandemic-shortened season, but since 2021 Rendon has played in just 105 contests. A multitude of leg issues which sidelined him in 2021–groin, knee, hamstring and hip maladies, to be specific–before wrist surgery knocked him out for a large chunk of 2022.

The veteran third baseman was able to return late in the season, setting him up for a normal offseason for the first time in a while. It was reported recently that he feels “fantastic” headed into camp. Fantasy managers in early drafts, though, are understandably taking a “I’ll believe it when I see it” stance. Rendon is currently being selected well outside the top-200 overall picks and barely inside the top-20, even at a position which is among the weakest.

The batted ball data from Rendon the last two seasons hasn’t been great, but it’s tough to know how much, if at all, to read into that given how banged up he’s been. His excellent batting eye is still there with an 11.8% walk rate and 17.2% strikeout rate.

Top Trade Candidate While he will always have his vocal detractors as a result of his purported involvement in the 2019 Astros cheating scandal, Alex Bregman should be able to rest easy at night knowing he's lived up to expectations as the No. 2 overall pick in 2015. He's a two-time All-Star and now a two-time World Series champion, having hit .294/.379/.569 in the most recent postseason to help manager Dusty Baker secure his first ring. Bregman was limited in 2021 due to quad and hamstring issue and underwent wrist surgery in November of 2021, which may have sapped his power early on in the 2022 campaign (.410 SLG at the end of June). He would go on to slug over .500 after the All-Star break. Running is something Bregman has abandoned, but the highly-capable bat and RBI opportunities batting behind Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena and Yordan Alvarez make Bregman an appealing option to consider after the elite tier of third basemen are off the board.

Top Prospect Available

It’s clear that Cam Collier likes to be challenged. He finished high school early, reclassified for the 2022 Draft and went to Chipola Junior College, where hit hit .333/.419/.537 as a 17-year old. That helped him land in the first round to the Reds, and he swung the bat well during a brief pro debut. He has a sweet left-handed swing that’s loose and has excellent bat speed. He makes a ton of contact and uses the whole field well but comes with a long ETA after just being selected and playing the entire 2023 season at age 18.

Top RDBL Prospect

Gunnar Henderson was perhaps baseball’s biggest breakout prospect in 2022. After struggling for years with high strikeout rates, the former 2019 second-round pick finally put it all together. He dominated both Double-A and Triple-A before receiving a promotion to the Major Leagues. All he did in his Major League debut was post a 125 wRC+ with an 18/600 home run pace. The strikeout rate did creep back up in Triple-A and the Major Leagues, providing a little bit of concern, but at just 21 years old Henderson has plenty of time to develop. With plus speed and plus power, and an at least average hit tool, Henderson has the looks of being a big-time fantasy asset for years to come. Henderson has the upside to hit 30 home runs with 15-20 stolen bases in the middle of an improving Baltimore lineup.

On The Lookout: Tuesday, 2/28

Spring Training action continues on Tuesday as clubs are close to losing parts of their rosters to the World Baseball Classic in the coming days. Several interesting players are set for their 2023 debut today including reigning American League MVP runner-up Shohei Ohtani who appears on the mound for the first time.

Here is what we are on the lookout for on Tuesday with a full slate of games.

Leiter, Rocker Set for 2023 Debut

The hype around Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter reached a fever-pitch at this time two seasons ago, leading to the right-handers being selected 5th and 7th overall by the Mission Viejo Maulers and Idaho Taters. Leiter, 22, was drafted second overall by the Rangers in the 2021 MLB draft and debuted with Double-A Frisco last summer. He struggled in his first professional season with a 5.54 ERA and a 1.95 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 92.2 innings but has drawn positive reviews through two weeks in Arizona.

Rocker dominated in college, pitched a 19-strikeout no-hitter in the 2019 Super Regionals versus Duke and was selected No. 10 overall by the New York Mets in the 2021 draft. He went unsigned after the Mets reviewed his medical information, and the Rangers surprisingly drafted him third overall in 2022. He didn’t pitch in the regular season but threw 18 innings in the Arizona Fall League with a 4.50 ERA and 14 strikeouts.

Shohei Ohtani Debut

The Meinert Hops are set to make Shohei Ohtani (2/$88) the most expensive Keeper in RDBL History this season and for good reason. Ohtani holds a projection of 914.5 points for 2023 and will make his debut on Tuesday against the A’s in Mesa. Ohtani, who threw a live bullpen session without any issues on last Wednesday, is making the change to get an extra day of rest before he travels to Tokyo to join Team Japan for the World Baseball Classic.

Fujinami Faces Off Against Ohtani

One of the more interesting Free Agent pitchers available will be Oakland Athletics right-hander Shintaro Fujinami who faces off against Ohtani on Tuesday. Though the 28-year-old Fujinami was in the same draft class as Ohtani, it took the former a little bit longer to break into MLB. However, since coming over to the A's on a one-year, $3.5 million contract on Jan. 11, the right-hander has impressed manager Mark Kotsay with his three-pitch repertoire. Despite the hype around the matchup, Kotsay added that Fujinami will be limited to two innings or around 35 pitches in his debut as the team continues to evaluate where the righty will be most effective.

Pitching in a combined 25 games between Japan’s Central and Western Leagues in 2022, Fujinami finished the season at 107 1/3 innings. From 2019-21, his highest number of innings pitched in one season was 98 1/3 in ‘20. If he remains healthy, Fujinami said his goal is to reach the qualified innings mark of 162 in his first season with the A's. “I’d like to shoot for maybe 140 innings,” Fujinami said through interpreter Issei Yamada. “If I can throw that number of innings, I would be really happy. I’m hoping for that.”

Lodolo Ready for Next Step?

The Mt. Diablo Devils are anxious to turn Nick Lodolo loose for 2023 with the left-hander set for his Spring debut Tuesday afternoon. The seventh overall pick in 2019, Lodolo is already paying dividends for Cincinnati. He began the 2022 season as the Reds' No. 5 starter but made just three starts before a back issue cropped up that would ultimately sidelined the lefty well beyond the initial estimated timetable. Once finally back, Lodolo pitched like a star in the making, posting a 2.92 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 21.3 K-BB% in 77 innings after the All-Star break. Hunter Greene gets most of the attention in the Reds' rotation, but Lodolo is arguably better equipped for major-league success right now given his secondary pitches and command of his arsenal.

3 Up, 3 Down: Injuries Already Causing Havoc on 2023 Plans

We are just a few days into the Spring Training game schedule and the injuries are already piling up across the Roger Dorn Baseball League. That news is led by shortstop Gavin Lux who suffered a season-ending injury on Monday afternoon that led to his release by the Alamo Short Stacks on Tuesday.

Here's the latest 3 Up, 3 Down with a little under a month until the 2023 RDBL Draft.

Clarke Schmidt (Minors), Fringe

As we'll cover below, the injury to Frankie Montas (shoulder) should open up a door in the New York Yankees starting rotation which could provide even more options for Fringe GM Tony Guglielmi. Schmidt boasted a 3.12 ERA in 29 appearances (3 starts) in 2022 and will battle Domingo German in Spring Training for the fifth starter job. The Fringe are overflowing with rotation options behind Sandy Alcantara, Lance McCullers and Triston McKenzie including new Padres signee Michael Wacha (2FA/$5). Guglielmi also holds options on Taijuan Walker, Marco Gonzales and Lucas Giolito as well as potential activation options on Reid Detmers, Josiah Gray and Grayson Rodriguez.

Schmidt added a cutter to his pitching arsenal and featured it in his two perfect innings against the Braves Sunday. Schmidt struck out five of the six batters he faced Sunday, an impressive start to his quest to lock down that final rotation spot in New York.

JJ Bleday (Minors), Jokers

Bleday was traded from the Marlins to the Athletics in exchange for A.J. Puk on Saturday, opening the door for a 2023 activation by GM Rick Steen. Bleday was the fourth pick of the 2019 MLB Draft out of Vanderbilt, and the outfielder struggled mightily in his 65 games with the Marlins in 2022 with a .167/.277/.309 slash line along with five home runs and four stolen bases over 238 plate appearances. A left-handed hitter, Bleday has easy plus power and a quality approach at the plate, but he's struggled to make hard contact as a professional. There's still time for Bleday to tap into his potential as a 25-year-old, and Oakland's rebuild offers him a chance to earn a starting spot.

C Tyler Stephenson (2R/$3), Heads

Stephenson is expected to catch about 65 games for the Reds this season, manager David Bell told Charlie Goldsmith of The Cincinnati Enquirer on Thursday, a plan that should benefit the injury-prone Honolulu Hammerheads. The plan is for Stephenson to catch four out of every 10 games and also make three starts at designated hitter and two at first base during that span. Bell said that the team already has every game planned out, although circumstances can obviously change. Just 65 games seems like an awfully low number for your starting catcher, but it should certainly give Stephenson a better shot to stay healthy after he was limited to just 50 contests in 2022. It's welcomed news for his fantasy outlook. The Reds also have Curt Casali, Luke Maile and Austin Romine, so they have other options at catcher. Stephenson's season ended last year with a fractured clavicle, but he enters camp without restrictions.

SS Gavin Lux (2R/$3), Stacks

With Brendan Rodgers losing shortstop eligibility last year, the Stacks were left without an option on their Active Roster which led them to the off-season acquisition of Gavin Lux, a player the club was internally very excited about entering 2023. The Stacks are back to square one as Lux was diagnosed with a torn ACL and will miss the 2023 season.

With Lux dropped by the Stacks on Tuesday morning, catcher Will Smith (2/$30) could re-enter the picture as a Keeper option or the club could dive back into the Trade Market to fill the spot.

Obliques for Glasnow, Suzuki

The Clovers and Hammerheads were also hit with disappointing injury news as Tyler Glasnow and Seiya Suzuki were both diagnosed with oblique strains. Glasnow's MRI showed a Grade 2 strain which carries a timeline of 6-8 weeks to return while Suzuki's injury was characterized as a moderate strain with no timetable provided.

The Clovers certainly have a talented rotation, but the injury highlights the volatility with Dustin May, Jesus Luzardo and Michael Kopech all looking to shake off injury-prone labels in 2023.

Musgrove Injures Toe

Las Vegas Aristocrats veteran co-ace Joe Musgrove will miss the start of the season after fracturing his left big toe Monday in a weight-lifting accident. Padres manager Bob Melvin said that Musgrove won’t begin throwing again for at least two weeks, but conceded that's an optimistic viewpoint – and it likely will be a longer absence.

“You don’t want to see [a picture of the fracture]," one Padres player told USA TODAY Sports on Tuesday. "It is bad. Really ugly.’’

It’s unknown when Musgrove can rejoin the rotation, but a lengthy absence would mean that Musgrove has to re-start his spring-training throwing program.

“I mean, it’s not starting over,’’ Melvin said, “but the longer you go, the more it gets closer and closer to starting over, but obviously he’s a guy who keeps himself in really good shape. It’s going to be more about how it heals and certainly a pain tolerance thing. We’ll have to evaluate how he’s doing and see where he goes.’’

Musgrove made the All-Star team for the first time last season, going 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA in 30 starts as the Padres reached the National League Championship Series.