We are officially one week out of the 2023 Roger Dorn Baseball League Keeper Deadline when Front Offices are forced to pair down their Active Rosters to 12 players, make calls on potential activations and any cuts to their Minor League system. After a flurry of deals in early February, the RDBL Hot Stove has been anything but warm, but things are expected to pick up this week as the final tweaks are made.
Here's the latest around the Roger Dorn Baseball League with five players that could still be moved before the 20th.
RHP Lucas Giolito (3R/$5), Lunatic Fringe
Giolito seemed like a pretty safe bet to bolster your fantasy pitching staff last season. He was coming off the second 200-strikeout season of his career in 2021 and from 2019-21 collected a 3.47 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 526/137 K/BB ratio over 427 2/3 innings.
Instead, we saw the right-hander fall flat on his face, posting a 4.90 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 177/61 K/BB ratio across 161 2/3 frames. His strikeout rate was still solid at 25.4%, but down from the 30.7% rate he had over the previous three years. Giolito’s velocity was also down a tick across the board and so were his spin rates, particularly on his fastball.
This February, Giolito showed up to White Sox camp 25 pounds lighter and with a revamped delivery, seemingly intent on bouncing back in 2023 in what will be a walk year. Better conditioning and cleaner mechanics surely can’t hurt, but betting on a Giolito bounce-back is mostly betting on track record. He made one of the largest leaps forward we’ve ever seen a pitcher make from 2018 to 2019 and largely sustained it until last year’s backslide. He’s just 28 and seems worth buying back in on for a club seeking an additional arm.
SS/2B Jorge Polanco (3/$15), Cloverdale Clovers
Polanco had a disappointing, injury-riddled 2022 season for fantasy managers after a standout 2021 season. The 29-year-old slashed .235/.346/.405 with 16 home runs and 56 RBI in 445 plate appearances while spending time on the injured list with low back tightness and left knee inflammation, failing to repeat his breakout 2021 campaign.
The Alamo Short Stacks reportedly have an agreement in place with the Cloverdale Clovers pending Polanco proving his health before the Keeper Deadline, but Polanco has yet to appear in a Spring Training game which has clouded confidence the deal will be completed.
3B Alex Bregman (2/$36), Mission Viejo Maulers
Alex Bregman was one of the top hitters in baseball between 2018-2019, finishing 2019 as the runner-up American League MVP to Mike Trout. A multitude of injuries that impacted his mechanics led to some regression in the 2020 and 2021 season. Bregman was still a good hitter, but far from the game-changer he had been. Finally healthy, Bregman found his mechanics and regained his peak form, specifically in the second half of the season. He hit .259 with an .820 OPS in 2022 with his second-half being noteworthy, hitting .287 with an .894 OPS. He carried that over with a dominant Playoff run, hitting .294 with a .948 OPS. If a club is seeking cost-certainty entering Draft Day, Bregman could be the ideal fit as a safe 400+ point bet for a reasonable contract.
RHP Lance McCullers (2/$1), Lunatic Fringe
McCullers (forearm) threw for the second time Monday in the batting cage, his second throwing session in three days as he works back from muscle strain he suffered in his right arm last month. The right-hander is expected to miss the first couple weeks of the season, but is he keeps progressing, it's reasonable to expect him to return to the mound by the end of April. McCullers has struggled with the injury bug over the past couple seasons, only appearing in eight games in 2022 after nursing a forearm injury he sustained in the 2021 playoffs. Still, at his best, McCullers is an elite value at just $1 and could be a potential fit for the Asti Grape Stompers given the right-hander is under control through 2024.
1B, 2B, 3B, OF Brandon Drury (2FA/$5), Mission Viejo Maulers
Los Angeles Angels infielder Brandon Drury had a surprising 2022 campaign split between the Cincinnati Reds and the San Diego Padres. He slashed .263/.320/.492 and set career highs with 28 HRs, 87 RBI, 87 runs, and two stolen bases in 138 games, the most over his eight seasons. Drury was solid the year before, posting a .274 average and a .783 OPS, but owned a lowly .206 xBA and .348 xSLG. The veteran posted eye-popping splits in 2022 with a .298 average and 12 home runs over 52 contests at Great American Ballpark but hit .240 with 16 homers in 86 games elsewhere. Now, without the benefit of playing his home games in Cincinnati, Drury won't replicate his 2022 numbers.
Around the RDBL
- The Meinert Hops intend to keep Bryan Reynolds (2/$38) according to sources. Reynolds is projected to post the fifth most points among all outfielders (478.5) in 2023 according to CBS after putting up 374.5 points in 2022.
- The Alamo Short Stacks have continued to analyze their options as they look to pivot after losing Gavin Lux and Brendan Rodgers to season-ending injuries. Those plans now include retaining Will Smith (2/$30) due in large part to a barren Free Agent class at the catcher position. If Smith is retained, Yasmani Grandal would become the top available catcher with the backstop expected to be released from his 2/$19 option with the Lake Merced Goutfish.
- The Stacks remain open to adding in additional areas and have reportedly dangled left-hander MacKenzie Gore (Minors) according to sources. Gore got off to an impressive start in the majors, with a 1.50 ERA, a 2.20 FIP, 17 walks, 57 Ks, and a .200/.279/.241 line against in his first nine games, eight starts, and 48 IP for the Padres before elbow issues sidetracked his season. He's set to start 2023 in the Opening Day rotation for the Nationals.
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