The top of the Cloverdale Clovers roster is as strong as any in the Roger Dorn Baseball League as the 2020 performance of core assets like Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, Juan Soto and Marcell Ozuna did little to shake the club's confidence that they can be in the title contenders in 2021.
While the talent, and track record in many cases, for the remainder of the projected Keeper List Clovers remains strong, their 2020 performance set off some alarm bells within the club's Front Office. They are still viewed by many as the early favorites in the East Bay Division but their standing as title favorites next season has taken a hit that they will need to likely address this Winter if they wish to regain their standing.
Value Up
Marcell Ozuna (2/$25)
It's safe to say Ozuna re-established his market value (and then some): He nearly won the National League Triple Crown after leading the Senior Circuit with 18 homers and 56 RBIs, to go along with a .338 average and a 1.067 OPS. He was projected to be cut by the Clovers entering 2020 but will now be one of the core pieces in 2021 as the club looks to make a deep run at their second league title.
Alex Verdugo (Minors)
Verdugo appeared ready for an Opening Day activation entering 2020 and his shortened season performance did little to shake the Clovers confidence in his ability to be a key contributor moving forward. Verdugo finished 2020 with a .308/.367/.478 slash line, six homers, 16 doubles, 36 runs, 15 RBI and four stolen bases in 53 games and will join Ozuna, Mookie Betts and Juan Soto in a stellar outfield.
Cap Space
Without a 2020 RDBL Draft and a number of prospects emerging into full-time big league jobs, the Auction Draft is expected to be quite deep this season. The Clovers will enter, as currently constructed, with one of the larger cap space numbers in the league thanks in large part to the valuable contracts of Soto, Verdugo, Jack Flaherty, Jesus Luzardo and Mike Soroka who will be owed just $11 combined in 2021 while they likely look for a new home for $24 option Justin Turner.
Value Down
Young Arms
The Clovers were projected as one of the top clubs entering 2020 due in large part to a deep crop of big arms but four of those assets have seen dents to their value over the last nine months. Two-time RDBL Pitching Prospect of the Year Jack Flaherty (2R/$3) had one of the most unexpected down seasons in 2020, posting a 4.91 ERA in 40 1/3 innings while Mike Soroka (2R/$3) suffered a torn achilles in his third start with an unknown timeline entering this season.
Michael Kopech (Minors) was expected to get some valuable work in 2020 and position himself as a dominant activation candidate for 2021. The right-hander instead decided to sit out last season and now hasn't made a big league appearance since September of 2018. The lack of action means the 24-year-old is hardly a lock to have a rotation spot in Chicago to start 2021 and could be another year away from joining the Clovers Active Roster.
Spencer Howard also got his chance to solidify a spot in the Phillies 2021 rotation but stumbled to a 5.92 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in six starts which could have him back in the Minors to start this year.
Carlos Martinez (2/$2)
The $2 contract the Clovers handed Martinez in 2019 to end the Auction Draft was expected to be a boon for GM Chris Shelley. Just a year of RDBL action later, Martinez could be back on the Free Agent market. He finished 2020 with a career-high 9.90 ERA and 2.10 WHIP over five starts. Martinez also battled COVID-19 for more than a month, making repeated trips to the hospital in the process. The 29-year-old was making his return to the starting rotation this season after a successful stint as closer during the stretch run of 2019 but now his role in St. Louis is up in the air as is his spot on the Clovers roster.
Emilio Pagan (2FA/$5)
Pagan is another arm that was penciled into the 2020 Clovers Keeper Roster that likely pitched himself off consideration last season. The right-hander was acquired from Tampa Bay by the San Diego Padres and struggled to duplicate his breakout 2019 season. Pagan posted a 4.50 ERA in 22.0 innings of work along with five blown saves that will likely leave him out of the closer conversation in San Diego to start 2021.
Early 2021 Keeper List Projections
Several roster spots are locked in for the Clovers but more decision loom for a roster that looked to be very steady nine months ago. The recent trade of Francisco Mejia to Tampa Bay could lead to an Opening Day activation for the catcher which would be a valuable addition.
Nick Ahmed's steady performance for the last two seasons could land him the starting shortstop spot given the shortage of options in the infield on the current roster following a disappointing year from keeper hopefuls Kevin Newman and GM-favorite Ryan McMahon. He will be joined by a still emerging yet dominant force in Rafael Devers.
The outfield is loaded as Betts, Soto, Ozuna and Verdugo easily standout as a glaring strength on the roster.
It's not hard to envision the stable of arms the Clovers have under contract exploding into the league's top pitching staff but there's a level of volatility that didn't exist a season ago. We have seen Shelley chase the top of the pitching market before with their 2019 $63 investment in Chris Sale. They could look to stabilize those pitching concerns with another premium arm like Gerrit Cole, Shane Bieber or former Clover Blake Snell as they leverage their substantial cap space in Auction.
While the club is set to activate Jesus Luzardo to slot in behind Flaherty, Soroka and Sonny Gray, they will face an interesting decision on Justus Sheffield who proved to be a worthy rotation asset in 2020 with a 3.58 ERA in 55 1/3 innings. A decision also looms on forever prospect Alex Reyes who appears ready to hold down a bullpen spot on Opening Day for the Clovers.
With Ozuna re-slotting into the club's Keeper List, the Clovers appear focused on moving Justin Turner's matching $24 option this Winter. Additional trade candidates include Aroldis Chapman (3/$12), Tom Murphy (2FA/$5) and Eric Hosmer (2/$18).
Farm System Update
The absence of Minor League Baseball in 2020 was a hit to the Clovers development plan as elite prospects Adley Rutschman and Daniel Lynch projected to make substantial progress towards big league promotions. Both could emerge as late season/post-season options in addition to Howard and Kopech.
The shortstop spot will be one to watch in 2021 as both Oneil Cruz and Royce Lewis look to take leaps forward. Lewis struggled at the plate in 2019 and is another prospect that was hurt greatly by the lack of a MiLB season while Cruz was involved in a fatal car accident that might leave part of his 2021 season in question as investigations continue into the incident.
As a whole, the Farm System matches the overall prognosis of the Clovers roster. Still really good but not as strong as we viewed them nine months ago.
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