The Honolulu Hammerheads will make their Peninsula Division debut in 2021 following the Division reshuffle and appear to have the building blocks in place to make some noise against their new competition this year.
The roster is led by a pair of star shortstops as the club is set to invest $66 in Corey Seager and Carlos Correa to head the offense while an additional $66 will go to their ace Jacob deGrom. The club needed some young and cheap talent emerge and few players added as much value in 2020 as right-hander Corbin Burnes. GM Ross Horiuchi will need to continue to unearth some value assets to off-set their heavy investments at the top of their roster but certainly have a core in place to compete as soon as this season.
Value Up
Corey Seager (2/$29)
Corey Seager was part of the historic group of young shortstops who debuted in the mid-2010s, though he'd been a tier below the rest prior to last season thanks to a lack of steals, mediocre home run totals and a season lost to Tommy John surgery. He fully caught up to the rest of that group at the plate in 2020, breaking out in his age-26 campaign to hit .307/.358/.585 with 15 homers. He followed that up with an outstanding postseason, homering eight times in 18 games while hitting .328/.425/.746. His breakout was backed by his underlying numbers, as his barrel rate more than doubled to 15.8% while his exit velocity leapt from 88.8 mph to 93.2 mph, giving him an xBA of .330 and an xSLG of .653, suggesting he underachieved, if anything. At his reasonable contract, it's fair to say that he might be the most valuable asset on the Heads roster.
Corbin Burnes (2R/$3)
It wasn't clear how Corbin Burnes would be utilized in 2020 after having a rough go of it the year before, but he and the Brewers found something that clicked, and Burnes wound up finishing sixth in NL Cy Young voting after a dominant campaign. Burnes entirely revamped his pitch mix last season, adding a cut fastball and changeup to the mix and severely cutting his reliance on his fastball and slider. When it was all said and done, Burnes posted a 2.02 ERA, a mark that would have ranked fifth in the league had he recorded one more out to qualify. His K/9 rate would have also ranked an elite third among all starters. Burnes was a well-regarded prospect coming up in the Brewers' system, so he has the pedigree to match his results and the Heads certainly deserve credit for their patience with him. He will essentially be a lock to open the season as the Brewers' No. 2 starter and slot right behind Jacob deGrom in the Honolulu rotation.
Ian Anderson (Minors)
Ian Anderson shattered expectations in 10 starts across the regular season and the playoffs. The No. 3 overall pick in 2016 was higher on prospect rankings after 2018 than he was after his 2019 season, which closed with him walking 18 in 24.2 innings at Triple-A. The secret to his MLB success was a devastating 87 mph changeup he threw 31 percent of the time. His fastball and curveball are unremarkable, but the quality of his changeup allowed his other pitches to play up. Anderson's Barrel% was in the 99th percentile and his improved changeup led to a much higher GB% (52.5) than he'd shown in the minors. He has always walked too many batters, but it looks like his 15.9 BB% at Triple-A was the outlier. If the homer suppression and groundball rate he displayed are mostly sustainable, a high walk rate won't matter as much. He has been very durable and could approach 160 innings in his first full MLB season.
Value Down
LHP Wade Miley (2/$1)
Wade Miley's tenure as a Reds starter never really got out of the starting blocks. After being acquired from the Short Stacks in the off-season, he got hammered in spring training before landing on the IL after one Regular Season start due to a groin injury. He then made three short appearances, the last of which landed him on the IL again, this time with a shoulder injury. That forced Miley to miss another month, allowing time for only two relief appearances to close out the season. He was firmly in the Heads plans for 2020 but after a lost season, all eyes will be on the left-hander in Spring Training to try and solidify his spot on the club's Keeper List.
RHP Touki Toussaint (Minors)
Toussaint, a 2015 RDBL Reserve Draft 2nd Rounder, is a talented young arm with a few flaws which hold him back from overall success and could put his roster spot on the Heads in jeopardy. He throws a beautiful curveball which can make even the best of hitters look silly, has above-average velocity with his fastball and scouts grade all four of his pitches at a 50 or higher grade on the 20-80 scale. The pieces are there for a good pitcher, but the execution has simply been missing. He has 107 strikeouts in 95 innings at the big-league level, but also owns a 5.97 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in that span. His 2020 was marred with him falling behind in too many counts and giving up the high ground to hitters.
RHP Yonny Chirinos (2FA/$5)
The Heads tried to shore up their pitching staff by acquiring Miley and Yonny Chirinos Chirinos from the Stacks but both could be off the roster in a matter of weeks. Chirinos entered the 2020 campaign having maintained a 3.71 ERA across his first 223 innings in the big leagues. While he wasn't dominant with punchouts --- he struck out only 189 batters in that span -- Chirinos effectively limited opposing batters' hard contact and also displayed elite control by posting a 1.9 BB/9 across 133.1 innings in 2019. However, Chirinos was robbed of any chance to take another step forward, limited instead to only 11 innings prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery in late August. That procedure likely rules him out for all of the 2021 campaign.
Early 2021 Projected Keeper List The top of the roster is easy to put in place as deGrom, Correa, Seager and Burnes serve as the key pieces Horiuchi will look to add onto this Winter and in the Auction Draft. Kenta Maeda (2/$14) isn't far behind that group and will slot right behind deGrom and Burnes in the rotation following a stellar 2020 campaign while Anderson stands out as one of the top activation arms in the league with Liam Hendricks leading the bullpen.
The Heads might face the most difficult choices with their Farm System. Christian Pache and Alex Kiriloff have been staples towards the top of Top 100 lists this off-season with both finishing the 2020 season in the big leagues. Both will fight for Opening Day jobs in Spring Training and could position themselves for activations if Horiuchi believes they are in the window of contending.
The decision on Austin Riley looks to be a bit easier as the slugger showed encouraging signs with place discipline though he still managed just a .299 on base percentage. Much like Pache, the hit tool will need to spike for each player to be a key value under the Roger Dorn Baseball League scoring model but Riley is certainly worth that risk in 2021 given his expected steady playing time.
Horiuchi will face some difficult choices with Jean Segura (2/$20), Joc Pederson (2FA/$5) and Manuel Margot (2FA/$5) who all stand as borderline options heading into March.
Farm System
With the potential exits of Anderson, Pache, Kiriloff and Riley, the Heads Farm System will need an overhaul in the 2021 Reserve Draft. The group would stand to be led by shortstop Jazz Chisholm who made his debut with the Marlins last year and should have a big league role at some point in 2021.
William Contreras also got a taste of the big leagues in the shortened 2020 season and has the look of an impact catcher which provides elite value in the RDBL. Contreras is likely on track for a 2022 activation with Travis d'Arnaud entering the final year of his deal in Atlanta.
Contreras is joined behind the plate by Tyler Stephenson, yet another Heads prospect who saw some time in the majors last season.
It could be a blank slate after that trio as Toussaint, Mickey Moniak and Thomas Szapucki have done little to inspire confidence that they can be future impact producers.
Comments