While a number of teams saw their Keeper options decrease over the shortened 2020 season, the Lake Merced Goutfish are one of the few clubs looking stronger than they were a year ago with arguably the best roster in the RDBL currently. The maturation of several prospects has the Farm System ready to help in a big way led by Fernando Tatis, Jr. while a deep stable of rotation options gives GM Ryan Atkinson a great deal of flexibility this Winter.
Pair the largest projected cap space in the league with the talent already on the roster and 2021 looks like boom or bust for the Goutfish.
Value Up
Fernando Tatis, Jr. (Minors)
Fernando Tatis was arguably the best player in baseball for much of the 2020 campaign, but a late-season swoon (.164/.242/.291 slash line over his final 62 PA) cost the youngster a legitimate shot at the NL MVP award. Still, Tatis solidified his reputation as one of the game's most exciting stars, finishing among a group of six players to register double-digit homers (17) and steals (11) in the shortened campaign.
There's little Tatis doesn't do well; he consistently smashes the ball, ranking first among qualified hitters with a 62.2 Hard% and 95.9 mph average exit velocity and placing second with a 19.5% barrel rate last season. He also ranked in the 98th percentile in sprint speed, portending many years of juicy power-speed numbers to come. He will enter 2021 rivaling Cody Bellinger as the most accomplished Opening Day activation in RDBL History.
Zach Plesac (2FA/$5)
Plesac looked like one of the top up-and-coming starters in the game in 2020, going 4-2 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in 55.1 innings. He paired a 27.7 K% with a minuscule 2.9 BB% while holding opposing hitters below the Mendoza Line combined. All told, his 2020 campaign put the right-hander firmly in the Goutfish's rotation plans for this season.
Sixto Sanchez (Monors)
An underwhelming finish to his rookie season overshadowed an otherwise breakout season for Sanchez. He entered his second to last start of the season with a 1.69 ERA before allowing nine runs in his final seven innings. He has three 70-grade pitches in his 97 mph sinker, 99 mph four-seamer and 89 mph changeup, while also mixing in a power slider and mid-80s curveball. His age (22) and velocity elevate his risk of injury, and he probably won't throw more than 160 innings in his first full season. He would be a must-activate on most rosters but the depth of the Goutfish could have the club delay the move.
Goutfish Draft Assets
With 51 prospects in Baseball America's Top 100 List this week, the Goutfish are looking poised to improve an already dangerous Farm System. With their expected activations, Atkinson can backfill the spots with five of the top 33 picks in the Reserve Draft. The club is unlikely to be finished with draft choices as they look to trim their Keeper List and add additional flexibility in the Reserve Draft.
Value Down Yordan Alvarez (Minors)
Many players were hit hard by the pandemic in 2020, both in terms of how it affected their availability and in how it impacted their performance, and Yordan Alvarez was part of that group. His 2019 breakout set high expectations for the reigning Rookie of the Year and the top ranked prospect in the RDBL entering 2020. But COVID-19 led to him missing all of summer camp and the first three weeks of the season. He came back for all of nine plate appearances before being sent to the IL with a knee injury which eventually required season-ending surgery. Alvarez said he had dealt with the knee pain since the summer of 2019, but you would never know it statistically. There have been a few videos this offseason showing Alvarez on the treadmill during rehab, which is a good sign. Designated hitters still need their legs as the foundation of their swing, so Alvarez's recovery should be monitored closely. Given the strength of their roster, it's not out of the question for Atkinson to hold back Alvarez in the Minors to at least start 2021.
Kris Bryant (2/$50)
Like a lot of people, Kris Bryant would love to forget all about 2020. The third baseman posted a career-worst .644 OPS, likely playing his way out of the 2021 picture for the Goutfish. For comparison, his next-lowest mark was the .834 OPS he recorded in 2018, and he finished with an OPS north of .900 in three of his first five MLB seasons. Bryant battled a variety of injuries and only played in 34 of the Cubs' 60 games. Injuries have been an issue the past few years. He played in 147 games in 2019 and just 107 in 2018 after playing in at least 150 games each of his first three seasons. Bryant is still a talented player, but he's lost more than a little bit of his luster since that a magical 2016 season when he won NL MVP and the Cubs won the World Series.
James Paxton (3/$28)
The Goutfish missed on their other 2020 pre-season acquisition in Paxton who played himself off the roster for 2021. When Paxton underwent surgery to remove a cyst from his back in early February, it appeared that he would miss a significant chunk of the season. The pandemic-necessitated delay to the campaign seemed to give the southpaw time to fully recover, but Paxton never looked right, experiencing a steep velocity drop on his fastball and posting a 6.64 ERA through five starts. Paxton managed a 28.9 K% despite losing over three mph on his four-seamer, but that was about the only positive takeaway from a forgettable string of starts in which he was knocked to the tune of a 10.7% barrel rate. Those five appearances were the extent of Paxton's season as a left forearm flexor strain suffered in mid-August ended his campaign. The 32-year-old's strikeout potential and past success could make him a sneaky addition in the RDBL but it will be through auction as his $28 is too steep for any club to consider given the risk.
Early 2021 Keeper List Projections
When Cesar Hernandez and his $13 contract is the largest projected hit to the salary cap, it's clear the Goutfish will have some money to spend in March. The top end of the Goutfish Keeper List is easy to set, but some heavy analysis will be needed to fill out the backend of the group.
Garrett Cooper (2FA/$5), Maikel Franco (2FA/$5), Tony Gonsolin (2FA/$5), Edwin Diaz (3/$11), Jose Urquidy (2FA/$5), Kyle Seager (2FA/$5) and Avisail Garcia (2FA/$5) all sit in similar ranges of value but the club only expects to have room for three to possibly four of them.
A health Spring from Yordan Alvarez should lead to his activation though rumors continue to swirl that Atkinson is toying with the idea of holding him, or even Tatis, back in the Minors. Sixto Sanchez sits in a similar spot while Brusdar Graterol seems like a safe bet to be activated and utilize his $1 contract with high upside for 2021.
Farm System
The current group is set to undertake a major transformation on Draft Day thanks to a stable of picks and activations. Alvarez, Tatis, Jr., Sanchez, Adames and Graterol could all be set to join the Active Roster while Dylan Cease could also pitch his way into consideration. The bottom of the current group has seen some dents to their stock which will likely lead to off-season trade conversations or the potential of a release to clear space for the stocked Free Agent market of prospects available this year. When the dust settles, Drew Waters should take over the top spot in the Goutfish Farm System with the 6th overall pick likely to slot right behind him after Draft Day.
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