Rounding out our Deep Dives for the 2021 season are the Las Vegas Aristocrats who just missed the 2019 Playoffs with a 7th place finish. Their consolation prize is the top overall pick in the Reserve Draft, a selection that has now been delayed for a year with both of their top targets (Dylan Carlson and Dustin May) likely to be long gone in Auction.
The Active Roster took some lumps in 2020, pushing GM Nick Holz and Assistant GM Nick Kusanovich into some difficult decisions in the coming weeks. One downturn might have been a positive for the 'Crats as the club wavered back and forth and retaining Jose Altuve (2/$47) last season. After a miserable year, Altuve has taken that choice out of their hands and is certain to be cut soon.
More difficult choices loom as Stephen Strasburg (2/$33), the next highest paid player on the roster, missed all of 2020 with hand surgery and is a relative unknown heading into Spring Training.
All told, the 'Crats currently have the look of a contender in the Masters Division with a heavy boost coming from their Farm System with a trio of likely activations.
Value Up
Cavan Biggio (Minors)
A quick look at Biggio's 2020 might lead you to believe he was just okay in 2020 as he produced a .250 average. A deeper looks shows that Biggio should be thought of as one of the best activation-ready assets in the RDBL and a cornerstone of the Aristocrats Franchise. The multi-positional threat finished 21st in overall scoring thanks to the 12th highest walk rate in the league last year (15.5%) which totaled a .375 on-base percentage. His skillset, which has been consistent throughout his Minor League career, aligns perfectly with the RDBL scoring model while pairing the ability to man second, third or the outfield. The 'Crats will turn Biggio loose in 2021 and with a slight increase to that average, they could have a true star.
Raimel Tapia (Minors)
Raimel Tapia's production in 2019 left something to be desired, but he significantly improved in several areas during the abbreviated 2020 season and looks ready to consistent playing time again this season. His turnaround could be attributed to his vast improvement in plate discipline. He had an abysmal 45.5 O-Swing% in 2019, but that number dropped to 32.3% last year. In turn, he posted an 89.9 Z-Contact%, up from 81.2% the year before while also recording a career-best 8.9% swinging-strike rate. The changes to his approach led to a career-best 18.4 K% and .392 BABIP, and he also took walks at a 6.8% clip. Tapia also showcased his speed more, stealing eight bases over 50 games after stealing just nine over 138 games in 2019. With David Dahl out of Colorado, Tapia looks like a safe bet for an Opening Day activation which will help provide even more cap flexibility for the 'Crats.
Mark Canha (2FA/$5)
As the years have gone on, Mark Canha has developed into quite a good player. The peak of his performance came in the 2019 season, where everything seemed to click, and he ended up with a whopping 146 wRC+ in 126 games. Canha's power had quietly been developing in that span, and in 2019 he set new career highs in barrel (9.5%) and hard-hit rate (41.1%) en route to his power increase. He also developed into something of a walk machine, with a 13.5% walk rate, among the best in the game. Canha had slightly lower marks in the small sample of 2020 but hit righties enough to continue to receive everyday ABs. He continues to be a nice Waiver Wire find for the 'Crats who should quickly cash in on his $5 contract in 2021.
Max Fried (Minors)
Max Fried slid seamlessly into the ace role for Atlanta after Mike Soroka went down with an Achilles tear in early August. The lefty was a perfect 7-0 during the regular season, allowing a mere two homers in 56 innings (4.9% HR/FB). He does not throw his fastball particularly hard or with much spin, but it's effective nonetheless and does its job setting up one of the best curveballs in the game. Fried's curveball had a 31.2 Whiff% in 2020, with opponents combining to hit just .175 against the pitch. While his third pitch is another variation of the breaker -- a slider -- it's good enough and distinct enough that it gives him a third unique look, compensating for the lack of a fully developed changeup. He is all set to join the 'Crats Active Roster after being the only prospect ever selected in three separate RDBL Reserve Drafts (which has the Grapes and Stacks kicking themselves).
Value Down
Stephen Strasburg (2/$33)
Strasburg was scratched the day of his first scheduled start of 2020 and only ended up making two brief appearances during the short season which has GM Nick Holz pulling any remaining hair out as they prepare for 2021. The Nationals were initially hopeful that the nerve issue in Strasburg's hand -- which was not a new problem -- would not sideline the 2019 World Series MVP for too long. Strasburg was indeed able to return a few weeks later, but the discomfort persisted and he was later diagnosed with carpal tunnel neuritis in his right hand. Surgery to address the issue was performed in late August. Strasburg could theoretically return to form immediately as one of the game's top starters, though his season-long workload is in question. He has cleared 160 frames just four times in his career and the Nationals figure to take some measures to manage his innings after what was essentially a lost season.
Jose Altuve (2/$47)
After never hitting below .283 in any of his first eight full seasons, Jose Altuve saw his average plummet to .219 in 2020. Altuve flipped the switch in October, slashing .350/.500/.729 in the playoffs with five homers, matching his HR total from the regular season which should have teams interested in Auction but the production was not enough to commit to a $47 contract. It's fair to wonder if the right knee issue that forced Altuve to the IL in September was hindering his play in the weeks leading up to his placement on the injured list. Explaining his poor performance and dismal batted-ball numbers any other way is difficult, unless you want to pretend he was one of the best hitters in the game for a decade simply because he was stealing signs. That scandal will forever be a black eye on his career, but Altuve has been too good for too long to think he can't still perform at a high level at age 30/31. A return in Auction is possible but his release seems imminent.
Marcus Semien (2/$3)
Coming off a monster 2019 season in which he cranked 33 homers, Marcus Semien fell back down to Earth in 2020, slashing .223/.305/.374 with seven long balls, 23 RBI and four stolen bases in 53 contests. While his power numbers were down considerably (not unexpectedly) during the shortened season, his .223 batting average was far more concerning, as it was his lowest mark since the 2014 campaign. It was also disappointing to see his K% rise to 21.2% after improving to 13.7% in 2019 during arguably the most successful season of his career at the dish. While there were several concerning stats to point out at the dish a season ago, he turned just 30 in September and could benefit from a move to a robust Toronto lineup. Semien will move to second base after signing a one-year, $18 million deal with the Blue Jays. Given the contract, he'll be a value no matter what this season but it is certainly a drop for one of the premier players in 2019.
Carter Kieboom (Minors) / Gavin Lux (Minors)
The 'Crats made sound choices in the acquisition of Carter Kieboom and drafting of Gavin Lux with each expected to quickly be knocking on the big league door. While each has debuted, both are still entering 2021 Spring Training on the outside looking in at starting roles. While Lux's long-term value hasn't dropped, questions are starting to follow Kieboom on just how impactful he can prove to be at the plate.
Early 2021 Projected Keeper List
The Aristocrats took some lumps in 2020 but also saw the rise of a trio of activations that will add a ton of value to the roster immediately. Fried, Biggio and Tapia join strong values in Josh Hader, Marcus Semien, Paul DeJong and Nelson Cruz while indications are that fellow $5 contracts Ryan Yarbough and Chris Bassitt are set to return. The group gives the Aristocrats a great deal of financial flexibility as they monitor Stephen Strasburg's progress this Spring.
Oddly, $30/400 point producers always seem to not have a sexy following for Keeper Rosters but Starling Marte probably fits the bill in the 'Crats outfield at 2/$31.
The metrics looks strong for the 'Crats to build another contender in 2021 with plenty of cap flexibility to add more star power to an already sneaky strong group.
Farm System
While the 'Crats are expected to activate Fried, Tapia and Biggio, the Farm System still brings both depth and high-end talent with their remaining group. The club certainly expected both Kieboom and Lux to be ready by at least 2021, but both are behind schedule. The positive for the 'Crats is that both are expected to see some decent time in the big leagues which would line them up for potential 2021 Playoff activations or lock in their certainty for 2022.
The duo could be joined by Cal Quantrill who is an arm to closely follow after his move to Cleveland. Quantrill could serve as an activation-ready reliever but still holds some upside if given the opportunity in the Indians rotation.
The 'Crats clearly focused on up the middle talent in recent years as young shortstops Bryson Stott, Robert Puason, Braden Shewmake and Will Holland will all enter 2021 with important development years ahead.
Nick Lodolo is a high upside lefty who was a high draft pick and could be a big riser in prospect circles this season while Shea Langeliers continues his ascent as the future backstop in Atlanta.
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