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St. Joseph Jokers, Burlingame Blue Ducks, Idaho Taters, Honolulu Hammerheads, Las Vegas Aristocrats
Top Free Agent: Jose Abreu
Not many people had Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu as their pick for the 2020 American League MVP award, but he certainly earned it, hitting .317 with 19 homers and 60 RBI in the 60 games the White Sox played. But where does this put him for 2021? Abreu has always fared better in the warmest months -- a career .413 wOBA in August compared to .354 in March/April -- so that might explain some of his red-hot 60 games during the shortened season. He has also had massive RBI luck the last two seasons, averaging an RBI for every 1.4 of his hits (the league average is 1.98). The career-high batting average in 2020 also appears to have been aided by luck, as he also posted career-worsts in strikeout rate (22.5%) and contact rate (71.1%). Chasing an MVP season from a 34-year-old will keep his overall salary in check but given his 2020 production, Abreu outranks Josh Bell, Paul Goldschmidt and Joey Votto at the top of the list of available first baseman.
Under the Radar Free Agent: Jared Walsh
Jared Walsh struggled out of the gate last season, going 0-for-10 before an Aug. 3 demotion to alternate camp. Upon returning to the big club nearly four weeks later, the first baseman opened eyes around the league -- and in fantasy circles -- with a dominant finish during which he slashed .326/.357/.719 with nine home runs in 98 PA. Walsh's much-hyped power was on full display as he led all big-league hitters who logged at least 100 PA with an overall .354 ISO and ranked second with a .646 SLG. What's more, he was rarely fooled at the plate, posting a superb 13.9 K%. A glance at Walsh's minor-league stats suggests that the contact numbers are likely to regress, but the power is legitimate. He'll have to cede the occasional start to Albert Pujols for one more season, but Walsh could be a draft-day steal if he's able to carry his September magic into 2021.
Top Trade Candidate: Eric Hosmer (2/$18), Cloverdale Clovers
While Paul Goldschmidt (2/$52) is the biggest name on the trade market, Eric Hosmer is the best value. Hosmer has typically been a draft in the teens and drop asset but changes to his swing in 2020 look to have made the $18 a strong investment for a club this season. Despite a pair of stints on the injured list, Hosmer enjoyed his finest season as a Padre in 2020, playing a key role in helping to end the team's 14-year playoff drought. The veteran significantly altered his approach at the plate, as evidenced by pronounced jumps in his average launch angle (8.7 degrees) and pull rate (35.0%). Those adjustments helped fuel an increase in barrel rate and lifted Hosmer to a 15.9 AB/HR, easily the highest mark of his career. Fortunately, the newfound pop did not come at the expense of more strikeouts, as Hosmer's 17.9 K% was his lowest in three seasons. The end result was a 127 wRC+, his first above-average mark in that category since joining San Diego.
Under the Radar Trade Candidate: Hunter Dozier (2FA/$5), Maltese Falcons
The Falcons have made it clear that the club is in rebuild mode and while Dozier offers a strong contract for 2021, he is in the final year of the deal which makes him expendable for the right price. The only issue could be that asking price as club's need to have confidence Dozier can return to his 2019 form. After an age-28 breakout in 2019, Dozier managed a dismal .228/.344/.391 line across 196 plate appearances in 2020. He experienced a corresponding dip in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, giving the impression that his struggles were earned. He showed strong plate discipline -- his walk rate swelled to 14.5% -- but failed to make contact with pitches inside the zone. Dozier was diagnosed with COVID-19 shortly after the season began and reportedly suffered from shortness of breath after returning. He brings dual first base and outfield eligibility. GM Gary Falzon and Assistant GM Erik Nielsen would likely need a strong offer as the club is happy to hold Dozier into the season and have him regain his value while serving as a mid-season trade asset.
Activations: Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. (Stacks), Dominic Smith (Goutfish), Alec Bohm (Devils)
While the group of activations at first base is shallow, the talent level is quite high with all three projected to serve as key pieces on their respective clubs. Guerrero, Jr. enters 2021 as the most important player on the Stacks roster if the club hopes to compete for a Playoff spot. Regarded as one of the best hitting prospects in recent memory, Guerrero, Jr. has yet to produce consistently at the big league level but has the ability for a monster 3-year run for the Stacks.
Dom Smith, a recent addition from the Mission Viejo Maulers, was the Mets best hitter in 2020 and will look to build on that in 2021. There's a small dent in his value without the DH in the National League this season, but GM Ryan Atkinson has built a loaded roster that can overcome that if the AB's fall short. He will be given every chance to hold down left field for the Mets and should be another stellar value for the Goutfish.
Alec Bohm rounds out the list but might be the best bet for 2021. Bohm quickly established himself as a strong contact hitter with emerging power and patience at the plate, all skills that align perfectly with the RDBL format. Expect him to hold down a corner spot in Mt. Diablo as a core piece of the roster through 2023.
Potential Off-Season Deals
Aristocrats Acquire: 1B Eric Hosmer (2/$18)
Clovers Acquire: 3B Carter Kieboom (Minors)
Kieboom, mentioned in potential deals in the Catcher Overview, is suddenly a hot name in RDBL trade circles. In addition to the hole at catcher, the 'Crats are looking to fill in their spot at first base and could find a strong value in Hosmer. His bounceback in 2020 looks to have some real staying power while he's a trustworthy bet for 550+ at-bats in San Diego.
The Clovers have a deep crop of Keeper options and could leverage Hosmer in an upside buy in Kieboom. The third baseman's stock has dropped considerably since a year ago but the talent is still there with a few alterations at the plate.
Jokers Acquire: 1B Carlos Santana (2/$14), 2021 4th Round Pick (57th Overall)
Fringe Acquire: 2021 3rd Round Pick (38th Overall)
For the third consecutive season in a row, Santana posted a walk rate (18.4%) greater than his strikeout rate (16.9%). Unfortunately, hitting is more than just being selective — you need to hit the ball. Santana posted his lowest barrel rate (6.7%) and Hard-Hit rate (36.6%) in the Statcast era, explaining a measly .350 slugging percentage. His strong eye give him a solid floor for the $14 price with upside if he can revert back to his hard-hitting ways. CBS has confidence in that return with a 379.0 point projection which would be a boost to the Jokers offense who is searching for more keeper options.
The Fringe are deep at first base with returnees Cody Bellinger and DJ LeMahieu having eligibility there in addition to Miguel Sano. The club already holds a pair of 3rd Round picks and this would provide another early selection as they look to build depth a make a deep run in 2021.
Top 15 RDBL Free Agents
1 Jose Abreu (White Sox)
2. Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals)
3. Josh Bell (Nationals)
4. Rhys Hoskins (Phillies)
5. Joey Votto (Reds)
6. Max Muncy (Dodgers)
7. Jared Walsh (Angels)
8. Jake Cronenworth (Padres)
9. Jeimer Candelario (Tigers)
10. Brandon Belt (Giants)
11. Yuli Gurriel (Astros)
12. Rowdy Tellez (Blue Jays)
13. Jesus Aguilar (Marlins)
14. Bobby Dalbec (Red Sox)
15. Mike Moustakas (Reds)
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