The best Cardinals hitting prospect since Oscar Taveras, Dylan Carlson was a spring training standout and would have spent the bulk of the year in the majors under normal circumstances. That hype had the Las Vegas Aristocrats set to select the outfielder with the top overall pick in the 2020 Reserve Draft. Nearly 12 months later, Carlson won't be available for the Reserve Draft as he is expected to be among the first names called in the 2021 Auction Draft.
While that much is clear, just how much demand there will be for the young outfielder becomes the leading question.
Carlson eventually got the call in mid-August of 2020 when the Cardinals resumed play following a team-wide COVID-19 outbreak. His introduction to the big leagues was not kind. He was optioned to the alternate site after slashing .162/.215/.243 through 79 plate appearances and losing playing time in the outfield and looked far from ready to reach the lofty expectations that followed him.
Another chance would come for Carlson and he took full advantage. Following his recall on September 18th, Carlson emerged as the club's best hitter, slashing .288/.389/.533 over his final 54 at-bats and earning cleaning duty down the stretch and in the Playoffs.
2021 Outlook
Even though Carlson was up for more than half the 2020 season, it was still just 35 games. For prospect purposes, he’s still a rookie. That has him eligible for Top 100 Prospect Lists where he has already been ranked 9th by Baseball America and 13th by MLB Pipeline.
In total, Carlson slashed .200/.252/.364 over 110 at-bats so despite the hot finish to the season, his Auction salary will likely stay in check with some teams not fully sold on the hype.
Strikeouts were still an issue over that hot stretch (27.8 K%), but he got a lot more patient (13.0 BB%) as he settled in against big-league pitching. He doesn't have eye-popping exit velocity readings or blazing speed (74th percentile), but the 22-year-old switch hitter projects to be good at every aspect of the game.
Carlson has a clear everyday role in St. Louis and a big Spring Training will have teams salivating for his services.
Interested RDBL Teams
With the upside of a three year deal for such a young and emerging player, interest in Carlson projects to be far and wide. Several teams are looking to get younger in the outfield with limited or no activation-ready prospects to help drive the ship in 2021. That has the Burlingame Blue Ducks, Maltese Falcons, St. Joseph Jokers, Mission Viejo Maulers and Meinert Hops all showing early interest.
2021 Auction Draft Prediction
Early indications are that the Maltese Falcons are focused on a quick rebuild while trying to strengthen their upper Minor Leagues and add some youth to their roster. Carlson checks all the boxes for what the Falcons seek in a player and we see him landing with GM Gary Falzon and Assistant GM Erik Nielsen for $23 after a flurry of quick bids across the league.
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