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Writer's pictureGreg Shelley

2023 Market Overview: Third Base



The Third Base Market has already been quite hot this Winter, led by last week's trade of Nolan Arenado to the Cloverdale Clovers as the firesale of the Mission Viejo Maulers continued. It's a position that is deep at both the big league level and the upper Minors with several big name prospects ready or nearing to take over big league jobs in 2023.


Slugger Rafael Devers leads the 2023 Free Agent Class at the position after just finishing up his Rookie contract with the Alamo Short Stacks after a mid-season deal from the Cloverdale Clovers.

​Top RDBL Free Agents

Top Trade Candidates

1. Rafael Devers, Red Sox

2. Ryan McMahon, Rockies

3. DJ LeMahieu, Yankees

4. Yoan Moncada, White Sox

5. Anthony Rendon, Angels

1. Alex Bregman (2/$36), Maulers

2. Max Muncy (3/$17), Falcons

3. Justin Turner (3/$16), Devils

4. Brandon Drury (2FA/$5), Maulers

5. Ha-seong Kim (2/$1), Maulers

Top Available Prospects

Top RDBL Prospects

1. Cam Collier, Reds

2. Colt Keith, Tigers

3. Deyvison De Los Santos, D'Backs

4. Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Reds

5. Jordan Westburg, Orioles

1. Gunnar Henderson, Jokers

2. Brett Baty, Hops

3. Curtis Mead, Grapes

4. Josh Jung, Taters

5. Jose Miranda, Falcons

2022 Rankings

​2023 Projections

1. Jose Ramirez (Devils), 478.0

2. Austin Riley (Heads), 468.5

3. Manny Machado (Stacks), 467.5

4. Nolan Arenado (Clovers), 438.5

5. Rafael Devers (FA), 427.5

​1. Jose Ramirez (Devils), 513.0

2. Manny Machado (Stacks), 505.5

3. Nolan Arenado (Clovers), 447.5

4. Rafael Devers (FA), 422.0

5. Alex Bregman (Maulers), 411.5

Team Needs

Idaho Taters, Asti Grape Stompers, Cloverdale Clovers, Lunatic Fringe, Lake Merced Goutfish, Mission Viejo Maulers, Burlingame Blue Ducks, Meinert Hops


Top Free Agent

Coming out of the break, Rafael Devers .324/.379/.602 was pacing for a career-best year. He then spent 10 days on the IL with a sore hamstring. After returning, Devers was unable to recapture form, posting a .248/.325/.383 line the rest of the way. Other than the 1.5-mph drop in fly-ball exit velocity, Devers' underlying skills weren't much different over the second half, but his BABIP dropped from .353 to .289. For the season, he still managed a career-best 140 wRC+, but a drop in homers and a less potent Red Sox lineup resulted in fewer than 90 runs and 90 RBI for Devers. He eclipsed the century mark in each of the prior two full seasons. His defense remained below average, but he showed signs of improvement. With Devers still just 26-year-old, his best season is probably yet to come. He doesn't run, but Devers crushes the rest of the categories. He may not be first-round material, but he's in the discussion.


Under the Radar Free Agent

Anthony Rendon is probably dead to many Angels fans, who lament the club’s $245 million investment in him. To this point, that outlay has resulted in just 157 games played in three years. One of those was the pandemic-shortened season, but since 2021 Rendon has played in just 105 contests. A multitude of leg issues which sidelined him in 2021–groin, knee, hamstring and hip maladies, to be specific–before wrist surgery knocked him out for a large chunk of 2022.


The veteran third baseman was able to return late in the season, setting him up for a normal offseason for the first time in a while. It was reported recently that he feels “fantastic” headed into camp. Fantasy managers in early drafts, though, are understandably taking a “I’ll believe it when I see it” stance. Rendon is currently being selected well outside the top-200 overall picks and barely inside the top-20, even at a position which is among the weakest.


The batted ball data from Rendon the last two seasons hasn’t been great, but it’s tough to know how much, if at all, to read into that given how banged up he’s been. His excellent batting eye is still there with an 11.8% walk rate and 17.2% strikeout rate.


Top Trade Candidate While he will always have his vocal detractors as a result of his purported involvement in the 2019 Astros cheating scandal, Alex Bregman should be able to rest easy at night knowing he's lived up to expectations as the No. 2 overall pick in 2015. He's a two-time All-Star and now a two-time World Series champion, having hit .294/.379/.569 in the most recent postseason to help manager Dusty Baker secure his first ring. Bregman was limited in 2021 due to quad and hamstring issue and underwent wrist surgery in November of 2021, which may have sapped his power early on in the 2022 campaign (.410 SLG at the end of June). He would go on to slug over .500 after the All-Star break. Running is something Bregman has abandoned, but the highly-capable bat and RBI opportunities batting behind Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena and Yordan Alvarez make Bregman an appealing option to consider after the elite tier of third basemen are off the board.

Top Prospect Available

It’s clear that Cam Collier likes to be challenged. He finished high school early, reclassified for the 2022 Draft and went to Chipola Junior College, where hit hit .333/.419/.537 as a 17-year old. That helped him land in the first round to the Reds, and he swung the bat well during a brief pro debut. He has a sweet left-handed swing that’s loose and has excellent bat speed. He makes a ton of contact and uses the whole field well but comes with a long ETA after just being selected and playing the entire 2023 season at age 18.


Top RDBL Prospect

Gunnar Henderson was perhaps baseball’s biggest breakout prospect in 2022. After struggling for years with high strikeout rates, the former 2019 second-round pick finally put it all together. He dominated both Double-A and Triple-A before receiving a promotion to the Major Leagues. All he did in his Major League debut was post a 125 wRC+ with an 18/600 home run pace. The strikeout rate did creep back up in Triple-A and the Major Leagues, providing a little bit of concern, but at just 21 years old Henderson has plenty of time to develop. With plus speed and plus power, and an at least average hit tool, Henderson has the looks of being a big-time fantasy asset for years to come. Henderson has the upside to hit 30 home runs with 15-20 stolen bases in the middle of an improving Baltimore lineup.

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