3 Up, 3 Down: Rodriguez Value Up Following Signing

MLB Free Agency is off and running, at least for now as the impending CBA expiration date looms in early December. Regardless of that dreaded date, teams are already active which has led to some changes in player value within the Roger Dorn Baseball League.

Here's the latest 3 Up, 3 Down for the 2022 Off-Season as we approach the 9th season in League History.

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (2/$13), Asti Grape Stompers

The Tigers have made the biggest move of the 2021-22 offseason to date, reportedly agreeing to terms on a five-year contract with Asti Grape Stompers starter Eduardo Rodriguez (2/$13). The deal comes with a $77MM guarantee and can max out at $80MM, depending upon whether Rodríguez reaches a yet-unreported set of incentives.

That Rodríguez generated such strong interest and landed this kind of commitment from the Tigers serves as the latest reminder of teams’ changing methods of player evaluation. On the surface, Rodríguez wouldn’t appear to be coming off a particularly impressive season. He racked up 157 2/3 innings over 32 appearances (31 starts), but he did so with a career-worst 4.74 ERA. Not long ago, a five-year guarantee for a pitcher coming off a platform season in which his ERA was pushing 5.00 would’ve been inconceivable.

Teams are going far beyond ERA to evaluate pitchers in 2021, though, and Rodríguez’s underlying numbers were very strong. He struck out 27.4% of opponents this past season, a mark that’s nearly five percentage points above the league average for starters. Rodríguez’s 11.7% swinging strike rate is also a bit north of the 10.9% league mark, his fourth consecutive healthy season generating whiffs at greater than an 11% clip.

Rodríguez also has solid control, with his walk percentages typically hovering right around the league average. He doled out free passes at just a 7% rate in 2021, the lowest mark of his career. And despite pitching in one of the game’s most hitter-friendly home parks and divisions, he’s never really had issues preventing home runs.

More than anything, Rodríguez’s poor run prevention numbers in 2021 were the result of what happened when batters put the ball into play. Opponents had a .363 batting average on balls in play this past season, the second-highest mark among the 129 pitchers with 100+ frames. It’s not as if Rodríguez was simply getting battered night in and night out, though; opposing hitters’ 86.5 MPH average exit velocity was in the bottom ten percent leaguewide, while their 33.6% hard contact rate was in the worst fifteen percent.

Between his combination of swing-and-miss stuff, control and soft contact, Rodríguez fared quite well in the eyes of ERA estimators. While his actual ERA ranked 100th of that group of 129 hurlers, his FIP (3.32) and SIERA (3.64) checked in 21st and 24th, respectively. The Tigers are clearly of the belief that those metrics better reflect Rodríguez’s true talent level, with his ghastly 2021 run prevention attributable mostly to some combination of poor luck and a Boston defense that was the league’s worst at turning balls in play into outs. In prior seasons, Rodríguez’s peripherals and ERA aligned a lot more closely, and he posted a cumulative 3.92 ERA/3.84 FIP between 2017-19.

Given his $13 options for both 2022 and 2023 in the Roger Dorn Baseball League, Rodriguez looks to be well positioned for a Keeper spot heading into next season. The Grapes are quite deep at starting pitcher, making the left-hander a name to watch this off-season that could potentially be on the move.

C Tyler Stephenson (1R/$1), Honolulu Hammerheads

Tucker Barnhart said goodbye to the Cincinnati Reds, the city he called home for the last eight seasons and all his fans Wednesday after being traded to the Detroit Tigers. The move opens the door for Honolulu Hammerheads Tyler Stephenson (1R/$1) to become the every-day catcher which is a big boost for catcher-rich GM Ross Horiuchi. Barnhart started 97 games last season and hit .247 with seven home runs and 48 RBIs. Stephenson started 82 as a rookie, hitting .285 with 10 home runs and 45 RBIs while finishing the season ranked 7th in scoring at the position.

The Heads are set to bring back the league's top scoring catcher Salvador Perez (2/$16) which will likely push Willson Contreras (2/$23) to the front of the RDBL Trade Market this off-season.

LHP Andrew Heaney (3/$4), Burlingame Blue Ducks

The Ducks finished 2021 with the league's worst pitching staff, posting a 4.26 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with just 921 1/3 innings pitched, the second lowest mark in the Playoff Era for any RDBL Franchise. GM Ryan Walsh's top priority this Winter will be to solidify their pitching staff which could start with a player already under contract. The left-hander signed an $8.5 million, one-year deal last week with the Los Angeles Dodgers after combining for an 8-9 record with a 5.83 ERA last season between the Angels and Yankees.

“He’s got really strong ingredients in place,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said Wednesday of Heaney. “There were a few different levers that we feel we can potentially pull with him that he’s bought into and he’s eager to kind of dive in on that we think there’s a chance to really tap into something.”

Jokers Catching Plan

Buster Posey's surprising retirement from baseball was certainly a big blow to the St. Joseph Jokers' 2022 plans as the backstop had re-solidified himself as one of the game's best options behind the plate. While the cupboard isn't totally bare with Omar Narvaez (2/$7) set to return, GM Rick Steen was hoping for more from 2021 Reserve Draft pick Luis Campusano who was among the hottest names in prospect circles at this time last season. An injury to Aaron Nola pushed Campusano into an Opening Day role for the the Padres which cratered his Reserve Draft value due to a 1FA/$5 contract. The Jokers still popped Campusano in the 3rd Round with hopes of some late season value and a strong keeper for 2022. After a 3-for-34 introduction to the big league level, he spent the remainder of the season in Triple-A which leaves his 2022 chances with the Jokers in doubt. He will enter Spring Training with a chance to earn the backup spot behind Nola and while the future remains bright, his limited contract could lead to his release.

Hops Pitching Depth

In many ways, the Hops sit in a similar spot to the San Francisco Giants entering the off-season. Logan Webb and then...

GM Garrett Shelley's pitching staff posted just 110 starts and 805 1/3 innings in 2021, the lowest marks in RDBL History. The results were positive when they were on the mound as the group worked to a 3.62 ERA but a lack of dependable arms left Shelley short on too many occasions while their bullpen produced a league-low 16 saves.

There are some interesting names to watch as late season trade additions Daniel Lynch (Minors) and Spencer Howard (Minors) join Shane McClanahan (Minors) as potential options behind Webb but a veteran top of the rotation starter seems to be a glaring need for Shelley and the Hops this off-season.

High Priced Keepers

The trend in the RDBL has continued to point toward the league's highest priced talent being released back into Free Agency and 2022 looks to be no different. Shane Bieber (2/$72) is an expected cut from the Spokane Fightin' Fish who traded for the former ace late in the season during an injury-filled 2021. The Fish also hold Gerrit Cole (2/$73) who pitched up to expectations as the highest priced pitcher in RDBL History, but GM Michael Tirabassi seems lukeworm to the idea of building around his contract.

Christian Yelich (2/$59) has fallen flat since back and knee issues slowed his production and is a likely early off-season cut by the St. Joseph Jokers who might be interested in a reunion at a significant discount.

That pushes eyes to Max Scherzer (3/$68) and Jacob deGrom (3/$66) who could both return to the Aristocrats and Hammerheads respectively, though health will loom large into both decisions. Scherzer was unable to make his final postseason start with "dead arm" and will enter 2022 at age 38 while deGrom battled elbow soreness and missed the last three months of the season.