With the Major League Baseball Hot Stove kicking off this week, the Roger Dorn Baseball League has also turned the page to 2024 with an elite Free Agent Class set for our 11th Annual Draft. We covered the first 2024 Free Agent Power Rankings in late October, with outfielder Aaron Judge topping the list as he rolls off his $31 contract signed in 2021.
Here's an early look at the Top 10 Free Agents available and who makes the most logical sense for a potential signing as well as a contract range that's expected.
1. OF Aaron Judge, Yankees
Expected Contract Range: $63-68
2023 Stats: .267/.406/.613, 373.5 Points
Best Fits: Stacks, Falcons, Jokers, Hammerheads, Clovers
Prediction: $66 to Alamo Short Stacks
Judge enters the 2024 Draft with a chance to break Mike Trout's $71 contract for the highest hitter deal in RDBL History while Ronald Acuña's $66 deal was the largest of 2023. Five Front Offices currently project to hold more than $15 in cap space per opening, the likely necessary spending power to be a serious bidder for Judge while reserving cash for the remainder of the Roster. While we expect the Jokers to be heavy bidders, recent struggles on the mound from their organization as well as the Clovers will likely point their Front Offices towards more of a focus on the pitching market. That leaves the Alamo Short Stacks as a logical fit, given the club currently projects to have $200 available for just nine openings.
2. 3B Austin Riley, Braves
Expected Contract Range: $55-60
2023 Stats: .281/.345/.516, 478.0 Points
Best Fits: Hammerheads, Grapes, Clovers, 'Crats, Falcons, Jokers
Prediction: $58 to Honolulu Hammerheads
Riley has been a superstar over the course of his 3-year contract with the Honolulu Hammerheads, posting 1,422.0 points as one of the most successful Rookie contract deals in League History. Slugging .515 or higher in each season, Riley is showing no signs of slowing down. For good reason, Heads GM Ross Horiuchi is focused on retaining the third baseman making it hard to predict Riley landing anywhere else expect the shores of Honolulu.
3. SP/U Shohei Ohtani, Free Agent
Expected Contract Range: $55-60
2023 Stats: .304/.412/.654, 538.0 Hitting Points / 3.14 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 372.0 Pitching Points
Best Fits: Stacks, Falcons, Jokers, Fightin' Fish, Goutfish, Hops
Prediction: $58 to Spokane Fightin' Fish
While Ohtani will have a market across the RDBL with eyes on a dual-impact in 2025 and 2026, it's no lock that he'll be fully healthy in Spring Training and ready for a full slate of at-bats next season which puts his overall value in question. Expect the Goutfish and Fightin' Fish to be creative this off-season and clear cap space with strong enough Keeper Rosters to carry the risk next season while turning it into a boon over his final two seasons of control.
If he is without limits entering Spring Training, Ohtani will be in the mix for the highest overall Free Agent contract in 2024.
4. RHP Zack Wheeler, Phillies
Expected Contract Range: $55-60
2023 Stats: 3.61 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 435.0 Points
Best Fits: Clovers, Grapes, Stacks, 'Crats, Jokers, Falcons
Prediction: $57 to Cloverdale Clovers
The Cloverdale Clovers have failed to produce a pitching staff that has ranked better than 10th just once in the last seven seasons making the starting rotation a key priority for GM Chris Shelley. The club will have the spending power to do it as well with a current projection of $159 for just seven openings, giving them the highest cap per opening number in the league. Wheeler followed up a 624.0 career season in 2022 with 435.0 points last year and looks to be in line for the highest pitcher contract this year.
5. SS Trea Turner, Phillies
Expected Contract Range: $50-55
2023 Stats: .266/.320/.459, 30 Steals, 420.5 Points
Best Fits: Ducks, Jokers, Goutfish, Grapes, Stacks
Prediction: $51 to Burlingame Blue Ducks
Trying to live up to his $300M+ deal, Turner was not himself in the First Half of 2023 before turning it on to the tune of .292/.348/.554 over the last three months. Coming off a $49 deal, Turner figures to be right back in that market in 2024. The Ducks, currently lacking middle infield options, could be the best fit after making Turner their first Reserve Draft pick in Franchise History. A tick back up to his career norms along with his impact on the bases should put him safely back in the 450+ point range for the next three seasons.
6. RHP Spencer Strider, Braves
Expected Contract Range: $50-55
2023 Stats: 3.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 441.0 Points
Best Fits: Clovers, Grapes, Stacks, 'Crats, Jokers, Falcons, Heads
Prediction: $51 to Alamo Short Stacks
Outside of Logan Gilbert, the Stacks are staring at a number of starting pitching options that carry upside but attached risk. That likely will have GM Greg Shelley focused towards the top of the starting pitcher market with Spencer Strider as a logical fit. Strider posted a 3.86 ERA in 2023, coming off his 2022 Waiver Claim of the Year Award. The stuff jumps off the page with Strider as the right-hander has now puched out 496 in 327.0 big league innings over 2022 and 2023.
7. OF Kyle Tucker, Astros
Expected Contract Range: $45-50
2023 Stats: .284/.369/.517, 30 SB, 493.0 Points
Best Fits: Grapes, Jokers, 'Crats, Clovers, Ducks, Hops, Fish
Prediction: $48 to St. Joseph Jokers
Tucker had a breakout season in 2023, something that's been expected of him since his RDBL Activation in 2021. Finishing fourth in outfield points, Tucker slashed .284/.369/.517 with 30 steals and 71 extra base hits. While there will be wide interest, the St. Joseph Jokers look to be a logical landing spot as GM Rick Steen enters 2024 with a blank slate and need to make investment in younger assets with a safe floor to build around.
8. 1B Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Blue Jays
Expected Contract Range: $45-50
2023 Stats: .264/.345/.444, 403.5 Points
Best Fits: Fringe, Clovers, Devils, Stacks, Grapes
Prediction: $48 to Asti Grape Stompers
It was a down season for Guerrero who posted his lowest point output since his 2021 activation. The former RDBL Activation and Hitter of the Year figured to be a $60+ point player when he hit Free Agency, but the market looks a bit lighter after his 2023 struggles. There will still be wide interest across the board with the Asti Grape Stompers, who finished 11th in Hitter Points in 2023, a logical fit to join Bobby Witt, Spencer Steer and Jordan Walker in an improved lineup.
9. SS Bo Bichette, Blue Jays
Expected Contract Range: $40-45
2023 Stats: .306/.339/.475, 383.0 Points
Best Fits: Stacks, Heads, Grapes, Goutfish, Ducks, Devils, Hops, Jokers
Prediction: $43 to Meinert Hops
The Hops have a crowded infield of valuable assets, but with an elite rotation already in place, expect GM Garrett Shelley to make a big investment on the offensive side. Bichette was limited to 135 games, slashing .306/.339/.475 with 383.0 points as he completed his Rookie Contract with the Mt. Diablo Devils. He exceeded 430 points in both 2021 and 2022, giving any club that lands Bichette an elite option at shortstop.
10. 1B Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals
Expected Contract Range: $40-45
2023 Stats: .306/.339/.475, 383.0 Points
Best Fits: Stacks, Grapes, Heads, Clovers, Fringe, Goutfish, Jokers, Fish
Prediction: $41 to Lunatic Fringe
Much like the Hops, the Lunatic Fringe are largely set in the rotation and looking to leverage an average cap space amount into some impactful talent on offense. That could lead them to Paul Goldschmidt to pair with Matt Olson, covering the 1B and CI spots in 2024. Goldy had another elite year in 2023, posting 433.0 points with a .268/.363/.447 line while mashing 25 home runs and 31 doubles. While the production is likely to decline over the course of his last big RDBL contract, the price range of $40-45 bakes that in with a true contender being able to safely pencil in 400 points at a reasonable contract amount for 2024.
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