Perhaps in a similar fashion to Félix Hernández, the collapse is coming early for Madison Bumgarner, who, despite having just turned 31, is 16th among active pitchers with 1887.2 IP. Jacob deGrom, as an example, is over a year older than Bumgarner but has logged nearly 700 fewer innings.
After such a rough season, Bumgarner is unquestionably set to be released by the Meinert Hops which raises the question about his Free Agent market in 2021.
The decline may have been already happening under the surface for a few years now as Bumgarner’s xERA has risen each season since 2016. Unfortunately for the Diamondbacks, the roof just absolutely caved in last season in the first year of his five-year deal. Based on what we saw last year, most notably a massive 8.3% dip in strikeout rate, it’s difficult to find an angle for optimism. His fastball velocity fell exactly three full ticks to 88.4 MPH, while its whiff rate also plummeted from 21.2% to 8.4%. Overall, his 7.6% swinging strike rate would have ranked ahead of only Jon Lester (7.2%) among qualifiers. In addition, the .377 wOBA he allowed to opposing batters is supported by a .391 xwOBA (bottom 2%).
2021 Outlook
Bumgarner missed nearly a month with a mid-back strain so the hope is that a healthy offseason could help him regain some lost velocity. From that sense, it might be worth keeping an eye on his spring velocity. If his fastball is back up in the 91 range he could be worth a late-Auction selection as the volume should be there at the very least for a RDBL starting rotation.
Projections are decidedly pessimistic though with Steamer having him pegged for a 5.30 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. While the Dodgers and Padres continue to stockpile talent within their division, Bumgarner will face an even steeper task to return to form in 2021.
He will look to build on his 10 scoreless innings to finish 2020, possibly a sign of what's to come next season.
Interested RDBL Teams
Given the expected price on Bumgarner, it's not out of the realm for every RDBL club to have interest in rounding out their rotation with the left-hander provided the cost is at $5 or less.
Given their history of veteran starters in the rotation, the St. Joseph Jokers have been linked to Bumgarner along with the Idaho Taters. The Hops haven't ruled out a much cheaper return while the Lunatic Fringe have also kicked the tires on a possible reunion with Bumgarner who won the 2016 RDBL Pitcher of the Year Award in the black and orange.
2021 Auction Draft Prediction
$4 to the St. Joseph Jokers
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