Nine months ago, Randy Arozarena was a blip on the radar in a talented Tampa Bay Rays Farm System after his pre-season trade from the St. Louis Cardinals. As we enter 2021, Arozarena now sits as one of the prized Free Agents in the RDBL Auction Draft despite the fact he still maintains MLB Rookie status.
Let's first take a look at the outfielder's journey.
The breakout-star started his minor league career in High-A for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2017. He blasted that level, hitting eight home runs and stealing 10 bases in only 295 plate appearances. Arozarena received the call up to Double-A, and once again performed admirably. He continued to show that he was a significant power-speed threat, hitting three home runs and stealing eight bases in only 195 plate appearances. Despite the impressive season, MLB Pipeline ranked hin as the Cardinals’ 9th-best prospect heading into 2018.
He stayed in Double-A to start the 2018 season, and it was more of the same dominant profile. While his strikeout rate spiked to an all-time high 24.5%, he hit .396, with seven home runs, and stole nine bases in only 24 games.
A quick call up to Triple-A ensued. His power decreased, only hitting five home runs in 89 games, but his stolen bases jumped all the way up to 17 in 22 attempts. The Cardinals now 6th-ranked prospect had officially shown there was only one level he couldn’t handle, the Major Leagues. After yet again tearing up Double and Triple-A in 2019, where he combined for 15 home runs and 17 stolen bases in 92 games, Arozarena got his shot for the St. Louis Cardinals hitting .300 with one home run and a pair of steals in 23 plate appearances.
Despite the promising track record, the Cardinals dealt Arozarena to the Rays for talented left-hander Matthew Liberatore in January. Looking back, given Liberatore's prospect status, it should have been a clear sign of just how well-regarded the Rays viewed Arozarena.
He started the shortened 2020 season in extended camp but got his shot in August when the Rays were looking for a shot in the arm on offense. What they received was far more than they expected.
In the remaining 23 games that Arozarena played for the Rays prior to the playoffs, he hit .281 with seven home runs and stole four bases. Once the season calendar turned to the Playoffs, Arozarena morphed into a modern day Babe Ruth.
He went on to set MLB records for hits (29), home runs (10) and total bases (64) in a single postseason while being named the ALCS MVP.
2021 Outlook
Few players have as much helium in recent memory as Arozarena but is the excitement justified when looking at the numbers? The outfielder produced insane home run totals but his 18.6% fly ball rate in 2020 was below league average which should lead to a drop in his power expectations moving forward. There's also a great deal of swing and miss in his profile. He had a 14.9% swinging strike rate (league average was 11.2%), a 36.8% whiff rate (average was 24.5%), and his zone contact rate was 72.0% (average was 82.8%).
It's not all doom and gloom for his future though. Arozarena has proven through the minors and his brief big league career that he has exceptional bat to ball skills and a line drive rate that is well above average. A .300+ average might be out of the question, but the outfielder could easily settle in as a .275-285 hitter with 20+ home runs and 20+ steals which would be a fantasy star.
Interested RDBL Teams
Given the profile, there is going to be significant interest on Draft Day. The Mission Viejo Maulers appear ready to break the bank on Arozarena as they will soon shed the $54 contract of Justin Verlander leaving plenty of cap space for the outfielder. GM Chris Ferraro will certainly have competition for his services though as the Spokane Fightin' Fish, Meinert Hops and Mt. Diablo Devils have all been linked to him early in the off-season.
2021 Auction Draft Prediction
For a player whose value should be similar to that of Starling Marte ($31), the hype on Arozarena will likely push bids further north. A bidding war between the Hops and Maulers will end at $38 with the outfielder heading to Mission Viejo.
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