The Lunatic Fringe have championship aspirations in 2021 and with a crop of young and cheap contracts, the club is taking a deep look at the utilization of the remainder of the salary cap. That has GM Tony Guglielmi willing to explore deals for both Josh Donaldson (2/$25) and Charlie Blackmon (3/$47) according to sources close to the club. The club will also monitor the starting pitching market as the make a final call on left-hander Patrick Corbin (2/$31).
The Twins signed Josh Donaldson to the largest free agent contract in franchise history (four years, $84 million) before last season to add another impact bat. When in the lineup Donaldson delivered with an .842 OPS and a 131 OPS+. However, Donaldson missed half the season as injuries continued to plague him. After playing just seven games, he missed a month due to a right calf injury. He then aggravated the injury the last weekend and missed the playoffs. Donaldson still showed elite power with a 92.8 mph exit velocity and 53.4 hard-hit percentage, which ranked in the top 20 hitters with at least his few plate appearances, according to Baseball Savant. He also added an impact glove as he ranked 8th among third baseman with 11.9 UZR/150. His health remains a concern as he's had chronic calf injuries (missing 38 games with right calf strain in 2017) and played just 52 games in 2018 with a left calf and shoulder injury.
Donaldson remains a top power option at third base, but with considerable injury risk which could make him a trade candidate this Winter if the Fringe would like a more surefire bet with their $25 of cap space.
Charlie Blackmon remained relatively consistent during his age-34 season in 2020. His OBP remained over .350 for a fifth straight season, but his wOBA fell slightly to .340, his lowest mark since 2014. Although his on-base stats held steady, his hard-hit rate fell from 40.3% in 2019 to 29.7% in 2020, and his HR/FB rate dropped to 10.5%. His six home runs were only on pace for 16 over a full season after he averaged 31.8 home runs per season over the four prior years.
Additionally, his swinging-strike rate has steadily crept up over the past five seasons. The number was in double figures (10.3%) for the first time during the 60-game season. The left-handed hitter fared much better against southpaws in 2020 (1.012 OPS) than he did against righties (.736 OPS). Blackmon isn't in danger of losing playing time and remains a high-end fantasy option, but he has some minor question marks for the first time in recent memory. Any club spending $47 on a player is likely looking for as sure of a bet as possible. The Fringe still have plenty of faith in Blackmon, but need to decide if that cap space can be better utilized.
Corbin had a phenomenal performance in 2019, but 65 innings in 2020 is causing Fantasy Owners across the industry to seek life jackets. Before they jump off the ship, you can hear them screaming "Velocity is dropping," as it dropped two mph from the second half of 2019. Corbin finished the year with a 4.17 FIP, but history and bad luck indicate a bounce-back could be in the future.
This isn't the first time his velocity sat near 90.2 mph in the first half of the season (90.4 mph in 2018 and 91 mph in 2019). Though he got hitters to chase at his routine rate (37.8%), Corbin didn't get his normal level of strikeouts as batters made more contact than normal leading to a .362 BABIP. His slider, for example, incited the same chase frequency (46%), but it didn't have the expected dominating results. Batters were able to make 18% more contact outside the zone (47%) than in 2019. Many players are getting a mulligan for 2020, but Corbin's current ADP of 149 across Fantasy Leagues show he's not getting similar treatment. Though he'll be 32 years old during the 2021 season, Corbin has shown he can improve his velocity during the season. A healthy Spring could push him back to the Fringe or up the list of trade candidates but any blips or injury concerns in March will likely push him back to Free Agency.
Additional Notes Around the RDBL
- The Asti Grape Stompers have had some recent interest in Shohei Ohtani (3R/$5) according to sources. The Spokane Fightin' Fish had been in conversations with the Grapes last March for Ohtani who is entering the final year of his RDBL deal. There's no word on if GM Michael Tirabassi is interested again this time around.
- Ducks infielder Kolten Wong (2FA/$5) signed a two-year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers which is a great fit for his value. Wong is a career .308/.373/.482 hitter at Miller Park and looks set for everyday at-bats which should lead to a return to the Ducks in 2021.
- Nelson Cruz (2/$20) signed a one-year deal to return to Minnesota and looks like a good bet to return to the Las Vegas Aristocrats in their utility slot.
- Alex Colome (2/$7) signed a one-year deal with the Twins as well on Wednesday. The 32-year-old will remain in the American League Central after recording 42 saves over the past two seasons for the White Sox. Colome has a 2.62 ERA while converting 138 of 156 save chances in the last five years, and he should receive save opportunities in Minnesota making him a solid bet to return to the Lake Merced Goutfish though he will face competition from Taylor Rogers in Minnesota.
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