The overload of information that hits Roger Dorn Baseball League Front Offices each eason in preparation for Draft Day is always significant, but 2021 is presenting even more challenges for both the Auction and Reserve Draft.
For a variety of reasons, the RDBL has had a slow start to their off-season. As the calendar turns to February, we have yet to have a trade completed this off-season at a time that typically 10-15 deals have already been executed. Part of the slow pace is unquestionably internal debate over how to process and analyze the 2020 season at the big league level. Stars like Christian Yelich flopped over the shortened season while long-time underwhelming players like Michael Conforto and Dansby Swanson had breakout seasons. With each members of the 2021 RDBL Free Agent Class, how much weight do you place on those performances when planning your bids for Draft Day?
Should teams be ready to sell the Farm to acquire starters like Lake Merced Goutfish starter Zach Plesac who posted a 2.25 ERA but made on eight starts? 12 months after Manny Machado was a lock to be dropped from the Asti Grape Stompers on a $48 contract, should his .304/.370/.580 slash line in 224 at-bats be enough to completely change GM Terry Shelley mind?
The work stretches beyond the Active Roster as clubs begin prep for the 2021 Reserve Draft. Without a 2020 Draft, the crop of talents prospects available on the market is bigger than any season since the league was formed in 2013. Clubs that typically target College and High School assets have now seen a full MLB Draft Class integrate into Big League Farm Systems and are now ranked in Top 100 Lists, taking away the advantage they might have created through their deeper research.
As one East Bay Division General Manager told us, "We were all set to select Austin Martin in the latter part of the 1st Round with confidence he would get to us. Now he is dotting the top of Top 100 Lists and in the conversation, if not the favorite, to be selected 1st overall. It's frustrating."
While players like Martin now have a larger spotlight, a new class of High School and College players are gaining notoriety as well including former Las Vegas Aristocrats prospect Kumar Rocker. The right-hander, selected out of High School by the 'Crats in 2017 before he was dropped due to his commitment to Vanderbilt, is the odds on favorite to be the top pick in July's MLB Draft.
But with 51 and 52 Top 100 Prospects available in Free Agency according to Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, how do players like Rocker fit in? With such a talented group available, it's likely we see Front Offices take a hard look at prospects on their own roster who have yet to take the next step in their development with a potential increase in Farm System cuts.
This has teams like the Goutfish, owners of six of the top 33 in the Reserve Draft, very excited to take a bulk approach to Draft Day. The club could activate as many as five prospects for Opening Day alongside a handful of drops leaving plenty of spots for GM Ryan Atkinson to fill.
Expect the slow Winter to continue with many clubs anxious to get their eyes on their players in Spring Training before making any final decisions on their rosters.
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