For a team that finished in 14th with the worst team batting average and on-base percentage in RDBL History, GM Mike Friedrich is set to face a number of difficult decisions as they look to piece together their 2023 Keeper Roster.
A wave of under-performing 2022 activations have left the Friedrich with the balancing act of trying to remain patient on their development while being focused on contending this season. While it's clear the patience will be there for Spencer Torkelson (2R/$3), the same can't be said for Jo Adell (2R/$3) and Casey Mize (2R/$3), the latter of which is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. The release of Adell and Mize would be quite the turn of events with the duo originally expected to be foundational players for the Taters through 2024.
Activation Decisions
With the sour taste in his mouth over activations, Friedrich is staring a difficult calls again this season with Josh Jung, Nolan Gorman and Matt Manning all seemingly ready to join the Active Roster. Manning has been the best producer at the big league level to date among the trio, but was shut down in September due to forearm issues but is reportedly a full go on a normal off-season program making him the safest bet to earn the Opening Day activation.
Jung has been tabbed as the Rangers' third baseman of the future for a couple years now, and after foot and shoulder surgeries delayed his ascent, he finally made his big-league debut at the end of his age-24 season. Drafted eighth overall in 2019 as a hit-over-power corner infielder from Texas Tech, Jung's power has seemingly passed his hit tool as his most impactful skill. He had an elite 42.0 Hard% and a concerning 0.13 BB/K at Triple-A. Predictably, Jung whiffed plenty in the majors (38.2 K%) and didn't walk much (3.9 BB%), but he still got to that plus power in games, hitting five home runs in 102 plate appearances. The Rangers will likely allow Jung to keep playing through reasonable struggles in his first full MLB season, but the signings of Jacob deGrom and others bring a Win-Now approach in Texas for 2023 making the leash potentially a little tighter.
Gorman was promoted for his MLB debut in May and had a solid rookie campaign for St. Louis with 14 home runs and a .720 OPS in 89 games. Strikeouts were an issue at times in the minors and that remained true at the big-league level with a 32.9 percent strikeout rate. His 9.0 percent walk rate and .194 ISO were solid, but he'll need to cut down on the swings and misses to have some staying power in the Cardinals' lineup. He's likely to open 2023 as a bench bat/utility player with Brendan Donovan the favorite to start at second base, but Gorman could also split playing time at designated hitter with Juan Yepez. The lack of surefire playing time could push Friedrich to hold off on the young slugger's addition to the Active Roster.
Matthew Liberatore is a name to monitor in Spring Training, but his 5.97 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over 34 2/3 innings last season are unlikely to make him an Opening Day rotation option for the Cardinals.
Offense
While Manning's addition will help the overall roster, the offense is the biggest area of need as they look to build some depth behind Jose Altuve (3/$25), Sean Murphy (2R/$3), Michael Conforto (2D/$5), Brandon Nimmo (3/$16) and Torkelson (2R/$3). That makes the calls on Jung and Gorman, two moves that would free up even more cap space to make a run at the top of the Free Agent market, even more difficult.
Jared Walsh had a strong first full season in the majors in 2021 with 29 homers, 98 RBI and an .849 OPS, but he cratered last year and posted a .215/.269/.374 slash line. He also required surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome and missed the final month of the season, though it's unclear how much the injury affected his 2022 production. The offseason acquisitions of Gio Urshela, Hunter Renfroe and Brandon Drury significantly cloud Walsh's outlook for 2023 as he doesn't have a clear path to an everyday role with everyone healthy which will likely push him to the RDBL Free Agent Class.
Pitching Staff
The potential addition of Manning leaves a logjam of options for Friedrich. Despite ranking 14th in Pitcher Scoring last season, the group produced a strong 3.77 ERA giving the Taters some pieces to build around.
The ace of the staff entering Draft Day will be 2022 Free Agent Claim of the Year Spencer Strider (2FA/$5) who shoved his way to a 2.67 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with 202 strikeouts in 131 2/3 innings last year.
Jeffrey Springs (2FA/$5) began the season in a multi-inning reliever capacity before being used as an opener and then primary pitcher before transitioning into a traditional starter. He started 22 games as the latter, posting a 2.61 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 113.2 innings with a 26.4%strikeout rate and 6.0% walk rate. The result was a 404.0 point season that will earn him a slot behind Strider to start 2024.
The next safest bet to return is reliever Brock Burke (2FA/$5), another strong Waiver Claim, who posted 279.0 points in 2022 and carries an elite 338.0 projection from CBS for next season.
That's where the easy part ends for Friedrich and the Taters Front Office. With three rotation spots locked in between Manning, Strider and Springs, the club is likely to want to leave at least one position open for Auction. That leaves only two starting rotation spots to pick from the group of Bailey Obor (2D/$5), Eduardo Rodriguez (3/$13), Mike Soroka (2D/$5) and Johnny Cueto (2FA/$5).
Cueto was the most productive of that group last season with 353.0 points and just inked a one-year, $6M deal with the Miami Marlins this week.
Soroka saw game action in 2022 for the first time in two years after he recovered from a pair of Achilles tears, but he made only five starts for Triple-A Gwinnett after he was activated from the IL before being shut down with elbow soreness. Soroka was a borderline ace for Atlanta in 2019 with a 2.68 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 142:41 K:BB across 174.2 innings, but the past few years have been one setback after another with injuries. Even if he stays healthy in 2023, Soroka is likely to have significant workload restrictions with only 38.2 innings pitched across the last three seasons, and Atlanta likely isn't counting on him to be a reliable rotation piece but the Taters due hold an option on the right-hander through 2024.
Trade Market
With plenty of cap space and a deep crop of rotation options, the Taters are a good bet to hit the Trade Market when the 2023 RDBL Season officially opens on February 1st. While teams have reportedly been looking to clear cap space for the best Free Agent Class we have seen in League History, Friedrich could choose to pivot to taking on salary before Draft Day and giving their current Keeper Roster less variance.
Could a reunion with Alex Bregman (2/$36) be a fit? It certainly looks so as Bregman slugged over .500 after the All-Star Break, most of which was following his trade from the Taters to the Mission Viejo Maulers. The Maulers are likely to retain Nolan Arenado (3/$38) and have Aaron Judge (3/$31) under contract while wanting to maintain cap space for the Auction. The club also is projected to carry over just two starting pitchers with Justin Verlander (3/$5) and Nathan Eovaldi (3/$1), making the rotation an area of need for GM Chris Ferraro.
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