The 11th RDBL Draft is a little over four months away, but the difficult Keeper Deadline decisions are already clear for Roger Dorn Baseball League Front Offices. We are taking a Division by Division look at some of the tough Keeper decisions teams will face heading into 2024 with each of the candidates below also representing potential trade options this Winter.
Burlingame Blue Ducks: RHP Alek Manoah (3R/$5)
The 25-year-old right-hander was demoted to the minors two different times in 2023 and finished the year in shutdown mode following multiple late-September injections to reduce inflammation and soreness in his throwing arm. He can now wipe the slate clean, though, and look to rediscover his early-career form leading into next season. A first-round selection in the 2019 MLB Draft, Manoah compiled a dominant 2.60 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 307:91 K:BB over his first 308.1 major-league innings between 2021-22, adding the Pitching Prospect of the Year and Activation of the Year in the RDBL.
Lake Merced Goutfish: LHP Framber Valdez (2/$48)
Valdez has worked the fifth-most innings of any starting pitcher over the past two seasons trailing only Alcantara, Cole, Webb, and Mikolas, ranking seventh in scoring after another strong campaign in 2023. Valdez is certainly worth the $48 investment for 2024, but with a stable of cheaper starting options on their roster, GM Ryan Atkinson could look to part with Valdez and leverage those savings on their offense. Historically, the club prefers salary cap flexibility which could also come with Rafael Devers (2/$44).
Lunatic Fringe: Reid Detmers (2R/$3)
Detmers delivered a surprise performance in 2022 by pitching a perfect game and posting a 3.77 ERA for the season while looking like a potential breakout candidate in 2023. Things didn't come together as planned as the lefty posted a 4.48 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 168:60 K:BB across 148.2 innings. He found an extra tick on his fastball in 2023 (94.4 mph) and upped his strikeout rate to 26.2 percent, but a 9.3 percent walk rate and 1.15 HR/9 both took a step back from the previous season. The Angels lack any real rotation depth, especially with Shohei Ohtani likely departing via free agency, which should lock Detmers in for regular starts again in 2024. Detmers will turn 25 years old in July and still has some upside, but he's currently behind a strong group of Fringe rotation options that could make his return difficult to envision.
Maltese Falcons: RHP Seth Lugo (2FA/$5)
Seth Lugo, long a multi-inning reliever, was a full-time starter in 2023 for the first time with mixed results. He finished the season with solid ratios, but a decline in strikeouts and wins in just 8 of his 33 starts limited his overall fantasy value. Lugo has long been known for his high spin rate pitches, but his two primary offerings did not perform the same as a starter as they did when he came in from the pen. The league hit .171 off his fastball and .159 off his curveball in 2022, but those numbers jumped to .247 and .280 last year when he worked as a starter despite both pitches maintaining their high spin rates. Lugo's velocity dipped a bit working in the rotation as well. Overall, he produced a solid 327.0 point season in 2023 and is in line for a multi-year deal from a new club after opting out of his contract with the Padres.
San Mateo Oppo Tacos: C Will Smith (3/$30)
Smith was on his way to a huge season as he went into the break with a .279/.396/.494 triple-slash line with 13 homers and 46 RBIs, but hit .242/.320/.381 with just 6 homers and 30 RBIs after the break. Overall, Smith ranked third in scoring among catchers, trailing only Adley Rutschman and William Contreras. The $25-30 range has seemed to be the sweet spot for top end Free Agent catchers in the RDBL over the last five years, making Smith worth the contract but far from an overwhelming value making his market an interesting one to follow this Winter.
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