The Mission Viejo Maulers and GM Chris Ferraro continued their overhaul of their Keeper Roster Tuesday evening, announcing the acquisition of third baseman Nolan Arenado (2/$38) from the Las Vegas Aristocrats in exchange for starting pitcher Mike Clevinger (2/$10).
With both players under team control through 2023, it's a fascinating deal to unpack with Arenado becoming the third addition Tuesday to a suddenly elite Maulers offense. Ferraro acquired JD Martinez and Giancarlo Stanton earlier today with the new sluggers set to join Corey Seager, Ronald Acuña and Aaron Judge, among others.
Arenado was listed as the top trade candidate in Tuesday's Third Base Market Overview and it didn't take long to find a deal. The Aristocrats are facing a salary cap squeeze which was the main motivator for the deal, saving the 'Crats $24 with the move and further clarifying their plans to retain ace Max Scherzer (3/$68).
Arenado proved he could hit outside of Colorado in 2021 but was an exclusive power hitter, slashing .255/.312/.494 with 31 HRs, 81 runs, 105 RBI, and two stolen bases over 157 games. His Statcast data of last year was similar to previous seasons, except for his 6.7 Barrel%, the second-lowest of his career. However, he offset the low barrels with a career-high 45.8 Pull%. His high averages with the Rockies were aided by consistently high BABIPs, courtesy of Coors Field. But, his .249 BABIP last year should regress towards the norm, and his ability to put the bat on the ball (career 14.9 K%, 14.7 K% in 2021) suggests at least a bit of a batting average improvement, even with his moderate 89 MPH average exit velocity from last season. He's slugged 241 HRs the past seven seasons, so he'll no doubt put up north of 30 home runs again and should be well worth the $38 investment for Ferraro and the Maulers.
Clevinger missed the entire 2021 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in November 2020, giving him additional recovery time being 16 months removed from the knife. The right-hander posted a 3.02 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 8.64 K:9, 8.6BB%, and 4.15 FIP over 41 2/3 innings for Cleveland Guardians/San Diego Padres. He made four regular-season starts with San Diego and went (2-1) with a 2.84 ERA before being injured.
The Padres signed Clevinger to a two-year, $11.5 million contract during the 2021 offseason, indicating he will be at full strength for 2022. The 31-year-old was a top-20 starter with an elite strikeout rate (career 10.01 K:9) before the injury. Clevinger will most likely have his innings capped in 2022 in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, limiting his fantasy upside for this season but should have the chains let off in 2023. Steamer projections have Clevinger with a 3.76 ERA, 26.3K%, 8.1 BB%, 39.9 GB%, and a 3.83 FIP over 24 starts while CBS Sports projects 284.0 points this year.
Clevinger will slot in behind Scherzer, Max Fried and Joe Musgrove to form a very formidable 'Crats rotation.
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