The Major League Baseball Hot Stove is burning as hot as ever this week as the Winter Meetings are officially underway in San Diego. We are covering the latest signings and the impact on their value entering the 2023 season.
RHP Justin Verlander (3/$5), Mission Viejo Maulers
The 2022 American League Cy Young Award winner will head to the National League for the first time in his career as Justin Verlander inked a 2-year, $86M deal with the New York Mets on Monday with a 3rd year option for $35M. Verlander is set to enter the final season of his $5 RDBL contract with the Mission Viejo Maulers who landed the veteran in the 2021 Auction Draft while he was set to miss the entire season due to Tommy John surgery.
Despite entering his age 39 season, Verlander remains at the peak of his powers and will continue to hold his spot as one of the best values in the RDBL entering 2023 as he sits atop the Maulers rotation.
RHP Jacob deGrom (Free Agent)
The Rangers have made their huge rotation splash, announcing agreement with Jacob deGrom on a five-year contract. It’s a reported $185MM guarantee, and the deal also includes a full no-trade clause. The new ace will make $30MM next season, followed by successive $40MM salaries in 2024-25, $38MM in 2026 and $37MM in 2027.
deGrom ranked as the top Free Agent in our first version of the RDBL Power Rankings and will be one of the most intriguing names to follow in Auction. He's rolling off a $68 contract that expired at the end of the 2022 season and should be in line for a similar deal in 2023 with the Honolulu Hammerheads the early favorite to land him.
SS Trea Turner (3/$49), St. Joseph Jokers
The Phillies and shortstop Trea Turner have agreed on a contract that will see him make $300MM over 11 years with a full no-trade clause. Turner's dynamism was on display in 2022, when he hit .298/.343/.466 with 21 home runs and 27 stolen bases for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who had acquired him at the 2021 trade deadline along with ace Max Scherzer. It matched the production throughout Turner's career, during which he has hit .302/.355/.487 with 124 home runs, 230 stolen bases and 586 runs scored in 849 games.
Turner is set to return to lead the Jokers 2023 Keeper Roster at $49 which is expected to be boosted by the activations of Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Wright, Joey Bart and MJ Melendez while holding the top overall Reserve Draft selection as well as six of the top 29 and nine of the top 44 selections. That is likely to lead to a stronger Keeper Roster than currently present for Steen.
LHP Clayton Kershaw (Free Agent)
The Dodgers announced today that they have re-signed Clayton Kershaw to a one-year deal worth $20MM. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that it will take the form of a $15MM salary and $5MM signing bonus.
Kershaw hasn’t topped 180 innings since 2015 and has been kept under 127 since 2019. But he still generally keeps runs off the board when he’s on the mound. In 2022, he made a couple of trips to the IL but still made 22 starts and posted a 2.28 ERA over 126 1/3 innings, with rate stats roughly in line with his career marks.
He ranked as the 23rd best Free Agent available in the RDBL and is fresh off a $31 contract. He figures to approach that mark again in the 2023 Auction.
LHP Tyler Anderson (Free Agent)
The Angels have made a notable addition to their starting staff, announcing an agreement in mid-November on a three-year contract with free-agent lefty Tyler Anderson. It’s reportedly a $39MM guarantee with $13MM salaries paid out annually. Anderson had received a one-year, $19.65MM qualifying offer from the Los Angele Dodgers, but his deal with the Halos means he’s turning that down for a more lucrative pact.
Anderson, 33 in December, turned in a career-best season with the Dodgers in 2022, pitching to a 2.57 ERA in a career-high 178 2/3 innings. Along the way, he punched out 19.5% of his opponents against a 4.8% walk rate and 40.1% ground-ball rate.
His 535.0 points in 2022 ranked 15th among all starting pitchers which should lead to a strong market in Auction though his shaky history before last season could limit his overall contract.
Zach Eflin (Free Agent)
Right-hander Zach Eflin and the Tampa Bay Rays are in agreement on a three-year contract worth $40 million. The deal is the largest free-agent contract in Rays history, topping the five-year, $35 million contract that pitcher Wilson Alvarez received before the team's inaugural 1998 season.
Eflin, 28, became a free agent after turning down a $15 million mutual option for a $150,000 buyout from the Philadelphia Phillies, completing a $5.7 million, one-year contract. He went 3-5 with a 4.04 ERA, striking out 65 in 75⅔ innings and pitched 4⅓ scoreless innings in relief in the World Series, with the Phillies losing in six games to the Houston Astros.
Eflin getting $1M more than Tyler Anderson was certainly eye-opening when considering their 2022 production but it's hard to question the Rays Front Office on any decision. With that in mind, expect a team to share in their optimism for a breakout season from Eflin and land the right-hander in Auction to round out their own rotation.
1B Jose Abreu (3/$37), St. Joseph Jokers
The Astros have found their new first baseman, announcing agreement last Monday evening on a three-year deal with José Abreu. He’ll reportedly receive $19.5MM per season, bringing the total to $58.5MM. The salary will be paid out evenly, and the deal also contains various incentives based upon awards voting and All-Star appearances.
In 2022, he seemingly gave up a bit of power for a more contact-oriented approach, but still to great effect. His 15 home runs were the lowest of his career but so was his 16.2% strikeout rate. The result was a .304/.378/.446 batting line that was 37% better than league average, as evidenced by his 137 wRC+.
Abreu ranked fourth in scoring among first basemen with 446.5 points, his third consecutive 400+ points full season. With that string of production, Abreu is expected to return with Trea Turner to lead the Jokers offense.
LHP Martin Perez (2FA/$5), Spokane Fightin' Fish
Perez accepted the $19.65M qualifying offer extended to him by the Texas Rangers. Pérez, 32, was once a highly-touted prospect with Texas, considered one of the top 100 youngsters in the sport by Baseball America five years running from 2009 to 2013. It was the last of those five years that he seemingly arrived at the major league level, posting a 3.62 ERA over 20 starts and 124 1/3 innings.
However, since then, he struggled to live up to his potential, continuing to get opportunities but serving as more of a back-end innings-eater type. In the eight seasons from 2014 to 2021, his ERA was never lower than 4.38, a stretch that included some modest free agent contracts, all for just a single year. For 2019, he signed with the Twins for $4MM, followed by joining the Red Sox for $6MM in 2020 and re-signing with Boston for $4.5MM in 2021.
That pattern followed into 2022, with Pérez returning to the Rangers on a one-year, $4MM deal. He emerged into the spotlight by having the best season of his career at the age of 31. He made 32 starts and tossed 196 1/3 innings while posting a 2.89 ERA.
On a roster full of strong values, Perez is expected to return to the Spokane Fightin' Fish along with Shane Bieber and Drew Rasmussen.
RHP Mike Clevinger (2/$11), Las Vegas Aristocrats
The White Sox inked Clevinger to a one-year, $8M deal with a $12M mutual option for the 2024 season that includes a $4M buyout in late November.
After undergoing a Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for the entirety of the 2021 season, Clevinger returned to the Padres in May. He experienced a noticeable drop in velocity, with his fastball averaging 93.5 MPH compared to 95 MPH during the 2019 and 2020 seasons — this likely contributed to a decreased strikeout rate (18.8% in 2022 compared to 27.5% in 2020 and 22.6% in 2019). Nevertheless, Clevinger was able to pitch 114 1/3 regular season innings of 4.33 ERA ball, with a 7.2% walk rate, and 35.2% groundball rate. He also started a pair of playoff games, allowing seven earned runs in 2 2/3 innings.
With Max Fried, Joe Musgrove and Joe Ryan all expected back, Clevinger could have a tough time fitting into the Aristocrats rotation plans and could emerge as a potential trade candidate as the 'Crats Front Office looks for more offense.
1B Anthony Rizzo (2/$17), Maltese Falcons
The Yankees and Anthony Rizzo agreed to reunite on a two-year deal with a $40MM guarantee. That comes in the form of a $17MM salary in 2023 and 2024, followed by a $17MM club option for 2025 with a $6MM buyout.
Despite dealing with various ailments throughout 2022, he ended up having a nice bounceback campaign. His 32 home runs matched a career high and his .224/.338/.480 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 132. Based on that strong showing, he triggered his opt-out and returned to free agency in search of a larger deal. It’s also been speculated that the upcoming ban on aggressive defensive shifts will help him, given that his left-handed bat and low speed make him particularly vulnerable to those.
Rizzo is a candidate to be moved this off-season due in large part to a crowded Maltese Falcons Keeper List that is particularly packed in the infield. He figures to have strong market after 324.5 points in 465 at-bats last season and the upside following the ban on the shift.
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