3 Up, 3 Down: Prospects Ready to Shine?

With the MLB Free Agent market winding down, big league depth charts are growing increasingly clear. The most interesting development for Roger Dorn Baseball League Front Offices are the paths to consistent playing time for activation-ready players and things are looking promising for a wave of young players that could lead to the largest activation class in League History.

Today's 3 Up, 3 Down is led by a trio of prospects who look primed for 2023 roles following the moves over the last few weeks from their respective big league clubs while the another move in New York could have the arrival of a young Asti Grape Stompers catcher on hold.

RHP Grayson Rodriguez (Minors), Fringe

It felt like this would be the offseason in which Baltimore, fresh off a surprising run at an AL Wild Card spot, would get aggressive in its attempt to build around a homegrown core with supplemental pieces from the free agent or trade markets.

The O’s have added Kyle Gibson, but as things stand now in early January, they seem to have left the path clear for Rodriguez, who likely would have debuted in 2022 if not for a lat strain, to make the season-opening rotation. His deep pitch mix, headlined by a 70-grade fastball and changeup, would certainly play quickly in the bigs, and it wouldn’t surprise if he had a quick impact in the same way Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson did in 2022.

The Fringe are loaded with pitching options including 2022 Pitching Prospect of the Year Triston McKenzie so expect GM Tony Guglielmi to have an active Spring on the trade front to make room for Rodriguez.

1B Triston Casas (Minors), Falcons

There’s little doubt that the first-base gig is Casas’ now. The official release of Eric Hosmer on Dec. 22 made sure that Casas was the only American Heritage High School alum going for a spot at Fenway Park’s cold corner. Bobby Dalbec does provide a right-handed option, but his subpar 2022 campaign should have taken him out of the running. Casas showed signs of his promising power and good defense in his 27 games with the Sox last year, and that may have been enough to keep them from chasing other first-base options in the winter.

The Falcons were planning to play things slow with Casas, but with Hosmer out the door the club is likely to make the move on his Opening Day activation.

IF/OF Brett Baty (Minors), Hops

How many different gloves should Baty pack for Port St. Lucie? When it looked like Correa was heading to Queens, you could bet that New York’s best infield prospect would see more time in left field, where he’s made 29 Minor League starts. Now that Correa ss going back to Minnesota, the path to playing time at Baty’s natural position remains open. It’s likely been an offseason of zigs and zags, but it’s looking like it’ll end where it began -- with Baty as a Major League-ready bat who can hit for average and power and will compete with Eduardo Escobar for playing time at the hot corner.

A big Spring could push Baty right into the mix for the Hops Opening Day roster. With Shohei Ohtani set to return at $88, a $1 activation is a critical help to the salary cap for GM Garrett Shelley.

2B Trevor Story (2/$39), Idaho Taters

There were concerns with Trevor Story with the "Big Contract in New Place" theory as well as him leaving Coors Field in play along with the usual dose of health reservations with the talented hitter. It turns out each of them were well-founded as they all came into play in 2022. Story performed as a league-average player in the 94 games he did play with good counting stats, but missing nearly 60 games with a hand injury and a foot injury limited his overall production. A surprising jump in his strikeout rate coming over to the American League helped push his batting average to a career-worst .238 while his .251 average in Fenway could not save him. 2018 remains the only season in which Story has successfully avoided some type of injury, and his 2023 is off to an ominous start after he underwent an internal bracing procedure on the UCL in his right elbow during January. He's expected to be sidelined for 4-to-6 months, so he's unlikely to be back on the field until at least June.

While Story was a lock to be released, his surgery could push the infielder completely out of the Auction while making him an intriguing name for an early selection in the Reserve Draft with the 2022 rule addition allowing a third year of control for those selections.

RP Liam Hendriks (2/$15), Alamo Short Stacks

Hendriks was a key part of the 2022 Alamo Short Stacks Championship run, helping form a 3-man closing committee that totaled 118 saves and 997.0 points. While his cost was likely to prevent a return, Hendriks announced Sunday that he has been diagnosed with Non-Hodgkin's Lymphoma which leaves his 2023 value in the air. Hendriks began treatment Monday and said in a statement he's "confident that I will make a full recovery and be back on the mound as soon as possible." It's obviously going to take time, though, with general manager Rick Hahn saying in his own statement that "we do not expect to have any updates on Liam's playing status prior to Opening Day at the very earliest." In much less important news, the White Sox will have an opening at closer while Hendriks is away. Kendall Graveman and perhaps Reynaldo Lopez loom as the most likely options to fill that void.

Francisco Álvarez (Minors), Asti Grape Stompers

New York first added even more to its catching depth by agreeing to a deal with Omar Narváez in December and then dipped into it by sending James McCann to Baltimore. That would seemingly put the club’s top prospect into a holding pattern. Álvarez has a Major League-ready bat but missed out on needed developmental time behind the plate when he suffered a knee injury in last year’s second half.

With Narváez and Tomás Nido likely holding down the Mets’ two catching options on Opening Day, Álvarez’s best chance at opening in the bigs might be as a lefty-righty DH platoon with Daniel Vogelbach. It’s likely the Mets would want Álvarez in an everyday catching role at Triple-A Syracuse anyway to iron out his framing and blocking before ascending back to Queens.

2023 Outlook: Taters Facing Difficult Choices Before Draft Day

For a team that finished in 14th with the worst team batting average and on-base percentage in RDBL History, GM Mike Friedrich is set to face a number of difficult decisions as they look to piece together their 2023 Keeper Roster.

A wave of under-performing 2022 activations have left the Friedrich with the balancing act of trying to remain patient on their development while being focused on contending this season. While it's clear the patience will be there for Spencer Torkelson (2R/$3), the same can't be said for Jo Adell (2R/$3) and Casey Mize (2R/$3), the latter of which is still recovering from Tommy John surgery. The release of Adell and Mize would be quite the turn of events with the duo originally expected to be foundational players for the Taters through 2024.

Activation Decisions

With the sour taste in his mouth over activations, Friedrich is staring a difficult calls again this season with Josh Jung, Nolan Gorman and Matt Manning all seemingly ready to join the Active Roster. Manning has been the best producer at the big league level to date among the trio, but was shut down in September due to forearm issues but is reportedly a full go on a normal off-season program making him the safest bet to earn the Opening Day activation.

Jung has been tabbed as the Rangers' third baseman of the future for a couple years now, and after foot and shoulder surgeries delayed his ascent, he finally made his big-league debut at the end of his age-24 season. Drafted eighth overall in 2019 as a hit-over-power corner infielder from Texas Tech, Jung's power has seemingly passed his hit tool as his most impactful skill. He had an elite 42.0 Hard% and a concerning 0.13 BB/K at Triple-A. Predictably, Jung whiffed plenty in the majors (38.2 K%) and didn't walk much (3.9 BB%), but he still got to that plus power in games, hitting five home runs in 102 plate appearances. The Rangers will likely allow Jung to keep playing through reasonable struggles in his first full MLB season, but the signings of Jacob deGrom and others bring a Win-Now approach in Texas for 2023 making the leash potentially a little tighter.

Gorman was promoted for his MLB debut in May and had a solid rookie campaign for St. Louis with 14 home runs and a .720 OPS in 89 games. Strikeouts were an issue at times in the minors and that remained true at the big-league level with a 32.9 percent strikeout rate. His 9.0 percent walk rate and .194 ISO were solid, but he'll need to cut down on the swings and misses to have some staying power in the Cardinals' lineup. He's likely to open 2023 as a bench bat/utility player with Brendan Donovan the favorite to start at second base, but Gorman could also split playing time at designated hitter with Juan Yepez. The lack of surefire playing time could push Friedrich to hold off on the young slugger's addition to the Active Roster.

Matthew Liberatore is a name to monitor in Spring Training, but his 5.97 ERA and 1.73 WHIP over 34 2/3 innings last season are unlikely to make him an Opening Day rotation option for the Cardinals.

Offense

While Manning's addition will help the overall roster, the offense is the biggest area of need as they look to build some depth behind Jose Altuve (3/$25), Sean Murphy (2R/$3), Michael Conforto (2D/$5), Brandon Nimmo (3/$16) and Torkelson (2R/$3). That makes the calls on Jung and Gorman, two moves that would free up even more cap space to make a run at the top of the Free Agent market, even more difficult.

Jared Walsh had a strong first full season in the majors in 2021 with 29 homers, 98 RBI and an .849 OPS, but he cratered last year and posted a .215/.269/.374 slash line. He also required surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome and missed the final month of the season, though it's unclear how much the injury affected his 2022 production. The offseason acquisitions of Gio Urshela, Hunter Renfroe and Brandon Drury significantly cloud Walsh's outlook for 2023 as he doesn't have a clear path to an everyday role with everyone healthy which will likely push him to the RDBL Free Agent Class.

Pitching Staff

The potential addition of Manning leaves a logjam of options for Friedrich. Despite ranking 14th in Pitcher Scoring last season, the group produced a strong 3.77 ERA giving the Taters some pieces to build around.

The ace of the staff entering Draft Day will be 2022 Free Agent Claim of the Year Spencer Strider (2FA/$5) who shoved his way to a 2.67 ERA and 0.99 WHIP with 202 strikeouts in 131 2/3 innings last year.

Jeffrey Springs (2FA/$5) began the season in a multi-inning reliever capacity before being used as an opener and then primary pitcher before transitioning into a traditional starter. He started 22 games as the latter, posting a 2.61 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 113.2 innings with a 26.4%strikeout rate and 6.0% walk rate. The result was a 404.0 point season that will earn him a slot behind Strider to start 2024.

The next safest bet to return is reliever Brock Burke (2FA/$5), another strong Waiver Claim, who posted 279.0 points in 2022 and carries an elite 338.0 projection from CBS for next season.

That's where the easy part ends for Friedrich and the Taters Front Office. With three rotation spots locked in between Manning, Strider and Springs, the club is likely to want to leave at least one position open for Auction. That leaves only two starting rotation spots to pick from the group of Bailey Obor (2D/$5), Eduardo Rodriguez (3/$13), Mike Soroka (2D/$5) and Johnny Cueto (2FA/$5).

Cueto was the most productive of that group last season with 353.0 points and just inked a one-year, $6M deal with the Miami Marlins this week.

Soroka saw game action in 2022 for the first time in two years after he recovered from a pair of Achilles tears, but he made only five starts for Triple-A Gwinnett after he was activated from the IL before being shut down with elbow soreness. Soroka was a borderline ace for Atlanta in 2019 with a 2.68 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 142:41 K:BB across 174.2 innings, but the past few years have been one setback after another with injuries. Even if he stays healthy in 2023, Soroka is likely to have significant workload restrictions with only 38.2 innings pitched across the last three seasons, and Atlanta likely isn't counting on him to be a reliable rotation piece but the Taters due hold an option on the right-hander through 2024.

Trade Market

With plenty of cap space and a deep crop of rotation options, the Taters are a good bet to hit the Trade Market when the 2023 RDBL Season officially opens on February 1st. While teams have reportedly been looking to clear cap space for the best Free Agent Class we have seen in League History, Friedrich could choose to pivot to taking on salary before Draft Day and giving their current Keeper Roster less variance.

Could a reunion with Alex Bregman (2/$36) be a fit? It certainly looks so as Bregman slugged over .500 after the All-Star Break, most of which was following his trade from the Taters to the Mission Viejo Maulers. The Maulers are likely to retain Nolan Arenado (3/$38) and have Aaron Judge (3/$31) under contract while wanting to maintain cap space for the Auction. The club also is projected to carry over just two starting pitchers with Justin Verlander (3/$5) and Nathan Eovaldi (3/$1), making the rotation an area of need for GM Chris Ferraro.

3 Up, 3 Down: Harper Injury Leaves Future with Devils in Doubt

87 Days remain until the 2023 Roger Dorn Baseball League Draft as off-season coverage is getting set to ramp up. MLB activity has been fast and furious over the last few weeks, leading to many value changes across the RDBL.

Here are some of those changes as clubs evaluate their options for 2023 Keeper Rosters.

'Crats Catchers

The ultimate winner of the 3-Team trade headlined by Sean Murphy last week was the Las Vegas Aristocrats as both of their activation-ready catchers took considerable leaps in value. William Contreras exits a crowded backstop position in Atlanta and joins a Milwaukee Brewers where he can be set for 140+ games of action across DH and catcher. With Murphy out the door, Shea Langeliers steps into the starting role in Oakland a full slate of games ahead of him in 2023. A catching duo for a combined $2 that could produce 600+ points next season is not a bad start to building a roster for the 'Crats Front Office trio.

OF Estuery Ruiz (2FA/$5), Asti Grape Stompers

Part of the package the Brewers received from San Diego in the Josh Hader trade at the deadline and then flipped again to Oakland this offseason, Esteury Ruiz had an eye-popping statistical season between Double-A and Triple-A. He hit .332/.447/.526 with 16 home runs and 85 steals on 99 attempts in 114 games while hitting .171 with one steal on three attempts in 36 MLB plate appearances. It was a post-hype breakout for the 23-year-old outfielder, who was a top-100 fantasy prospect back in 2018 before an unimpressive 2019 and 2021 in the middle levels of the minors. His elite speed could make him a fantasy standout, even if he is less valuable in real life. He doesn't have debilitating swing-and-miss issues, but he makes too much weak contact against premium pitching. While Ruiz has three double-digit homer campaigns under his belt in the minors, he shouldn't be expected to showcase double-digit homer power as a rookie in the big leagues.

Having now been flipped to the rebuilding A's in the three-team trade that sent Sean Murphy to Atlanta, Ruiz should have a chance to start Opening Day in Oakland with even a mediocre Spring Training and could emerge as a legitimate Keeper option for Grapes GM Terry Shelley who is currently short on offense.

Jokers Options

The St. Joseph Jokers already own the keys to the 2023 Off-Season and have even more options available following Gabriel Moreno's trade to the Arizona Diamondbacks. GM Rick Steen now has three strong activation options behind the plate with Moreno, Joey Bart and MJ Melendez, making one a viable trade option with a very thin Free Agent group at catcher.

OF Bryce Harper (2/$62), Mt. Diablo Devils

The Devils did an exceptional job locking up Jose Ramirez and Bryce Harper for a combined $109 in the 2022 Auction Draft. While both looked certain to return, Harper's exploratory elbow surgery this off-season resulted in Tommy John surgery with Phillies manager Rob Thompson indicating the plan is for an All-Star Break return to a DH role with a hopeful return to the outfield later in the year.

Missing half of the season and over 65% of the RDBL Regular Season makes a $62 contract difficult to swallow, especially for GM Jason Watson who is looking to reach the Playoffs for the first time since 2017 with young assets Wander Franco, Bo Bichette and Cal Quantrill inching closer to Free Agency.

C Travis d'Arnaud (2/$7), Lunatic Fringe

D’Arnaud was a first-time All-Star in his age-33 season in 2022, producing a career-high 18 homers, .791 OPS and 119 OPS+ in 107 games, including 99 starts at catcher and expected to return on his 2/$7 option for Fringe GM Tony Guglielmi. With Sean Murphy now the lead dog in Atlanta, could that push d'Arnaud into RDBL Free Agency? It is certainly possible the Braves now shop d'Arnaud to fill another hole, but with Manny Pina and William Contreras out the door, the more likely scenario is a limited share of the catching duties for 2023.

RHP Chris Bassitt (2/$27), Lake Merced Goutfish

The Lake Merced Goutfish have a number of difficult decisions to make on their 2023 Keeper Roster, but Chris Bassitt's move to the American League East might have forced GM Ryan Atkinson's hand at $27. Bassitt, acquired from the Cloverdale Clovers last season, posted a 3.42 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 181.2 innings spanning a career-high 30 starts. Bassitt is not the type of pitcher that typically wows you with his stuff, but he does a good job keeping hitters off balance and limiting hard contact with his diverse pitch arsenal (sinker, cutter, slider, curveball, four-seam, changeup). He also rarely shoots himself in the foot with walks. While he lacks the dominance of a frontline fantasy arm, there is a lot to like here with the late bloomer. New York liked what it saw enough to extend Bassitt the $19.65 million qualifying offer for 2023, which he wisely declined. He ended up getting three years and $63 million from Toronto, where he slots in as the No. 3 starter. He could have a trade market with two years of control remaining.