Value Updates on MLB's Latest Deals

The Major League Baseball Hot Stove is burning as hot as ever this week as the Winter Meetings are officially underway in San Diego. We are covering the latest signings and the impact on their value entering the 2023 season.

RHP Justin Verlander (3/$5), Mission Viejo Maulers

The 2022 American League Cy Young Award winner will head to the National League for the first time in his career as Justin Verlander inked a 2-year, $86M deal with the New York Mets on Monday with a 3rd year option for $35M. Verlander is set to enter the final season of his $5 RDBL contract with the Mission Viejo Maulers who landed the veteran in the 2021 Auction Draft while he was set to miss the entire season due to Tommy John surgery.

Despite entering his age 39 season, Verlander remains at the peak of his powers and will continue to hold his spot as one of the best values in the RDBL entering 2023 as he sits atop the Maulers rotation.

RHP Jacob deGrom (Free Agent)

The Rangers have made their huge rotation splash, announcing agreement with Jacob deGrom on a five-year contract. It’s a reported $185MM guarantee, and the deal also includes a full no-trade clause. The new ace will make $30MM next season, followed by successive $40MM salaries in 2024-25, $38MM in 2026 and $37MM in 2027.

deGrom ranked as the top Free Agent in our first version of the RDBL Power Rankings and will be one of the most intriguing names to follow in Auction. He's rolling off a $68 contract that expired at the end of the 2022 season and should be in line for a similar deal in 2023 with the Honolulu Hammerheads the early favorite to land him.

SS Trea Turner (3/$49), St. Joseph Jokers

The Phillies and shortstop Trea Turner have agreed on a contract that will see him make $300MM over 11 years with a full no-trade clause. Turner's dynamism was on display in 2022, when he hit .298/.343/.466 with 21 home runs and 27 stolen bases for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who had acquired him at the 2021 trade deadline along with ace Max Scherzer. It matched the production throughout Turner's career, during which he has hit .302/.355/.487 with 124 home runs, 230 stolen bases and 586 runs scored in 849 games.

Turner is set to return to lead the Jokers 2023 Keeper Roster at $49 which is expected to be boosted by the activations of Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Wright, Joey Bart and MJ Melendez while holding the top overall Reserve Draft selection as well as six of the top 29 and nine of the top 44 selections. That is likely to lead to a stronger Keeper Roster than currently present for Steen.

LHP Clayton Kershaw (Free Agent)

The Dodgers announced today that they have re-signed Clayton Kershaw to a one-year deal worth $20MM. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that it will take the form of a $15MM salary and $5MM signing bonus.

Kershaw hasn’t topped 180 innings since 2015 and has been kept under 127 since 2019. But he still generally keeps runs off the board when he’s on the mound. In 2022, he made a couple of trips to the IL but still made 22 starts and posted a 2.28 ERA over 126 1/3 innings, with rate stats roughly in line with his career marks.

He ranked as the 23rd best Free Agent available in the RDBL and is fresh off a $31 contract. He figures to approach that mark again in the 2023 Auction.

LHP Tyler Anderson (Free Agent)

The Angels have made a notable addition to their starting staff, announcing an agreement in mid-November on a three-year contract with free-agent lefty Tyler Anderson. It’s reportedly a $39MM guarantee with $13MM salaries paid out annually. Anderson had received a one-year, $19.65MM qualifying offer from the Los Angele Dodgers, but his deal with the Halos means he’s turning that down for a more lucrative pact.

Anderson, 33 in December, turned in a career-best season with the Dodgers in 2022, pitching to a 2.57 ERA in a career-high 178 2/3 innings. Along the way, he punched out 19.5% of his opponents against a 4.8% walk rate and 40.1% ground-ball rate.

His 535.0 points in 2022 ranked 15th among all starting pitchers which should lead to a strong market in Auction though his shaky history before last season could limit his overall contract.

Zach Eflin (Free Agent)

Right-hander Zach Eflin and the Tampa Bay Rays are in agreement on a three-year contract worth $40 million. The deal is the largest free-agent contract in Rays history, topping the five-year, $35 million contract that pitcher Wilson Alvarez received before the team's inaugural 1998 season.

Eflin, 28, became a free agent after turning down a $15 million mutual option for a $150,000 buyout from the Philadelphia Phillies, completing a $5.7 million, one-year contract. He went 3-5 with a 4.04 ERA, striking out 65 in 75⅔ innings and pitched 4⅓ scoreless innings in relief in the World Series, with the Phillies losing in six games to the Houston Astros.

Eflin getting $1M more than Tyler Anderson was certainly eye-opening when considering their 2022 production but it's hard to question the Rays Front Office on any decision. With that in mind, expect a team to share in their optimism for a breakout season from Eflin and land the right-hander in Auction to round out their own rotation.

1B Jose Abreu (3/$37), St. Joseph Jokers

The Astros have found their new first baseman, announcing agreement last Monday evening on a three-year deal with José Abreu. He’ll reportedly receive $19.5MM per season, bringing the total to $58.5MM. The salary will be paid out evenly, and the deal also contains various incentives based upon awards voting and All-Star appearances.

In 2022, he seemingly gave up a bit of power for a more contact-oriented approach, but still to great effect. His 15 home runs were the lowest of his career but so was his 16.2% strikeout rate. The result was a .304/.378/.446 batting line that was 37% better than league average, as evidenced by his 137 wRC+.

Abreu ranked fourth in scoring among first basemen with 446.5 points, his third consecutive 400+ points full season. With that string of production, Abreu is expected to return with Trea Turner to lead the Jokers offense.

LHP Martin Perez (2FA/$5), Spokane Fightin' Fish

Perez accepted the $19.65M qualifying offer extended to him by the Texas Rangers. Pérez, 32, was once a highly-touted prospect with Texas, considered one of the top 100 youngsters in the sport by Baseball America five years running from 2009 to 2013. It was the last of those five years that he seemingly arrived at the major league level, posting a 3.62 ERA over 20 starts and 124 1/3 innings.

However, since then, he struggled to live up to his potential, continuing to get opportunities but serving as more of a back-end innings-eater type. In the eight seasons from 2014 to 2021, his ERA was never lower than 4.38, a stretch that included some modest free agent contracts, all for just a single year. For 2019, he signed with the Twins for $4MM, followed by joining the Red Sox for $6MM in 2020 and re-signing with Boston for $4.5MM in 2021.

That pattern followed into 2022, with Pérez returning to the Rangers on a one-year, $4MM deal. He emerged into the spotlight by having the best season of his career at the age of 31. He made 32 starts and tossed 196 1/3 innings while posting a 2.89 ERA.

On a roster full of strong values, Perez is expected to return to the Spokane Fightin' Fish along with Shane Bieber and Drew Rasmussen.

RHP Mike Clevinger (2/$11), Las Vegas Aristocrats

The White Sox inked Clevinger to a one-year, $8M deal with a $12M mutual option for the 2024 season that includes a $4M buyout in late November.

After undergoing a Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for the entirety of the 2021 season, Clevinger returned to the Padres in May. He experienced a noticeable drop in velocity, with his fastball averaging 93.5 MPH compared to 95 MPH during the 2019 and 2020 seasons — this likely contributed to a decreased strikeout rate (18.8% in 2022 compared to 27.5% in 2020 and 22.6% in 2019). Nevertheless, Clevinger was able to pitch 114 1/3 regular season innings of 4.33 ERA ball, with a 7.2% walk rate, and 35.2% groundball rate. He also started a pair of playoff games, allowing seven earned runs in 2 2/3 innings.

With Max Fried, Joe Musgrove and Joe Ryan all expected back, Clevinger could have a tough time fitting into the Aristocrats rotation plans and could emerge as a potential trade candidate as the 'Crats Front Office looks for more offense.

1B Anthony Rizzo (2/$17), Maltese Falcons

The Yankees and Anthony Rizzo agreed to reunite on a two-year deal with a $40MM guarantee. That comes in the form of a $17MM salary in 2023 and 2024, followed by a $17MM club option for 2025 with a $6MM buyout.

Despite dealing with various ailments throughout 2022, he ended up having a nice bounceback campaign. His 32 home runs matched a career high and his .224/.338/.480 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 132. Based on that strong showing, he triggered his opt-out and returned to free agency in search of a larger deal. It’s also been speculated that the upcoming ban on aggressive defensive shifts will help him, given that his left-handed bat and low speed make him particularly vulnerable to those.

Rizzo is a candidate to be moved this off-season due in large part to a crowded Maltese Falcons Keeper List that is particularly packed in the infield. He figures to have strong market after 324.5 points in 465 at-bats last season and the upside following the ban on the shift.

Best Fit for Top Ten RDBL Free Agents

As teams trim their rosters for the off-season, 2023 Projected Keeper Rosters are becoming more clear as well as the needs of RDBL Franchises for next season. After releasing out 2023 Free Agent Power Rankings, 1.0, we are covering the best fits for the Top 10 Free Agents led by right-hander Jacob deGrom who is rolling off a $66 contract.

As currently projected, RDBL clubs will have $2,232 to spend on 152 open roster spots in the 2023 Auction at an average price per opening of $14.68.

1. RHP Jacob deGrom

Projected Top Bid/Team: $68, Honolulu Hammerheads

The Hammerheads reportedly "won't be outbid" on Jacob deGrom in the 2023 Auction, setting the right-hander up for one of the largest contracts in RDBL History. While we don't see deGrom beating Gerrit Cole's record deal of $73, he should approach it based on his strong return at the end of 2022.

2. RHP Corbin Burnes

Projected Top Bid/Team: $65, Lunatic Fringe

The Fringe struggled to pair Sandy Alcantara with formidable rotation mates but seem determined to solve that issue in 2023. With the activation of Triston McKenzie and potentially Reid Detmers as well as the deadline addition of Lance McCullers, GM Tony Guglielmi has taken significant steps towards fixing that issue. The addition of a top flight starter like Corbin Burnes would turn the Fringe from a solid group to a potentially spectacular one for 2023.

3. OF Mike Trout

Projected Top Bid/Team: $62, Idaho Taters

The Taters posted a .234 average and .307 on base percentage in 2022, the worst marks in RDBL History. GM Mike Friedrich is determined to change that and the addition of Mike Trout would go a long way in solidifying a young but potentially dangerous offense.

4. 1B Freddie Freeman

Projected Top Bid/Team: $60, Cloverdale Clovers

The Clovers are likely to spend a good chunk of their cap space to round out their starting staff with likely one spot available, but the remainder of their money will be poured into an offense that looks to rebound following a 2022 season that saw them post a .390 slugging percentage, the worst in RDBL History. Freddie Freeman likely should hold the mantle of the top available hitter following another dominant season for the 2020 National League MVP and would fill a glaring hole at first for GM Chris Shelley.

5. OF Mookie Betts

Projected Top Bid/Team: $59, Spokane Fightin' Fish

The Fish have fourteen projected Keepers, including the activations of Vinny Pasquantino and Julio Rodriguez, with only Shane Bieber owed more than $5 in 2023. That leaves GM Mike Tirabassi with significant cap flexibility and only three spots on offense making Mookie Betts a logical fit to return to the team he helped lead to two titles in three seasons from 2016-2018. His 2018 campaign of 478.0 RDBL Regular Season points still ranks as the best in Fish Franchise History.

6. OF Juan Soto

Projected Top Bid/Team: $58, Asti Grape Stompers

The emergence of Hunter Greene and Brady Singer have given GM Terry Shelley some unexpected depth in the rotation and while they are still likely to add a big name there, the majority of their cap space is likely to be poured in an offense that hit just .245 last season. The addition of Soto would stabilize an outfield that is currently projected to only carry over Oscar Gonzalez.

7. OF Ronald Acuña

Projected Top Bid/Team: $57, Lake Merced Goutfish

Due to a knee injury in 2021, the Lake Merced Goutfish traded away their homegrown star Ronald Acuña as they chased down and ultimately won the RDBL Title. A return to GM Ryan Atkinson looks like it could be in the cards, giving the Goutfish a ridiculous front-line on offense of Fernando Tatis, Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Tim Anderson and Acuña.

8. RHP Gerrit Cole

Projected Top Bid/Team: $56, St. Joseph Jokers

The Jokers have finished 14th or 15th in pitching in four of the last six seasons with GM Rick Steen's only cash finish coming in 2018 when they led the league in pitching points. That points to Steen investing heavily in their starting rotation making Gerrit Cole a logical starting point if he's cut loose from his $73 option currently held by the Spokane Fightin' Fish.

9. RHP Max Scherzer

Projected Top Bid/Team: $56, Mission Viejo Maulers

Injuries are starting to catch up with Scherzer who missed time on multiple occasions in 2022 but still posted a 2.62 ERA in 141 1/3 innings. Entering his age 38 season, he's likely to take a paycut from his $68 contract he just wrapped up and would make sense to pair with Justin Verlander to give the Mission Viejo Maulers a vaunted 1-2 punch to join Aaron Judge and Nolan Arenado on offense.

10. 3B Rafael Devers

Projected Top Bid/Team: $55, Lunatic Fringe

The Fringe hold a projected RDBL-high $197 in cap space with Corbin Burnes, the second best available Free Agent, already slotted as a fit for GM Tony Guglielmi. Expect a pair of big splashes from the Fringe with Rafael Devers potentially filling a big infield hold for Guglielmi.

Questions Facing Each RDBL Franchise This Off-Season

Roger Dorn Baseball League Rosters will be trimmed to 40 players by November 1st, officially turning the page to preparation for the 2023 Draft. With the Free Agent Class loaded with top-end talent, an active off-season is expected as clubs look to trim their Keeper Lists and potentially clear cap space for significant Auction additions in March.

Here's one burning question for each RDBL Franchise to answer this off-season.

Alamo Short Stacks: Set at Catcher?

The Alamo Short Stacks Keeper Roster is largely settled heading into 2023, but GM Greg Shelley will face a decision on Will Smith (2/$30) who fulfilled all of the club's expectations this season. Smith finished the full season ranked second in scoring behind the plate, trailing only J.T. Realmuto who is expected to return to the Burlingame Blue Ducks at $28.

The club will also have a close eye on the San Diego Padres catching plan as prospect Luis Campusano finished the season on the big league roster while hitting .348 in 23 at-bats over the final month. A timeshare between Campusano and Austin Nola could be enough for the Stacks to pull the trigger on an activation.

Asti Grape Stompers: Alvarez Activation?

Francisco Alvarez's monster home run Tuesday night highlighted the upside of the slugging catcher and gave a hint of the upside of GM Terry Shelley's top prospect. Still just 20, Alvarez looks set to have a big role in the Playoffs for the New York Mets but handing over the full-time catcher duties in a big market to a young player could be tough to count on for 2023.

One prospect who will not need to wait for an activation call is Hunter Greene who posted a 1.02 ERA with a 51-7 strikeout to walk ratio over his final six starts and has been penciled into the 2023 Opening Day rotation.

Burlingame Blue Ducks: Set at Catcher?

Decisions at catcher seem to be a theme heading into 2023. The duo of J.T. Realmuto (2/$28) and deadline acquisition Sal Perez (3/$16) finished 2nd and 4th in catcher scoring in the RDBL Playoffs, possibly giving us a preview of what's to come at the position for GM Ryan Walsh in 2023. Will Walsh be comfortable committing $44 to the position while carry Cloverdale Clovers: Which Pitcher is Out?

The Clovers will look to infuse some talent at the plate after ranking 13th in hitter scoring in 2022, but appear to be overflowing with options on the mound. The first four spots are locked in between Miles Mikolas (2D/$5), Tyler Glasnow (2/$2), Dustin May (2/$1) and Michael Kopech (2R/$3). That leaves looming decisions on Jesus Luzardo (3R/$5) and the potential activation of Edward Cabrera (Minors). Given his injury history, GM Chris Shelley could be patient with Cabrera and utilize the prized right-hander as a mid-season boost to the lineup while leaving one spot open in the rotation to be filled in Auction.

Honolulu Hammerheads: D’Backs Rookies Ready?

The Hammerheads have their top two starting rotation spots booked with Pablo Lopez and Chris Sale, while rumors continue to swirl over an all-out pursuit of Jacob deGrom in Auction by GM Ross Horiuchi. That turns all eyes to the Arizona Diamondbacks rotation plans which will be linked directly to the pre-Draft decisions from the Heads. Both Ryne Nelson and Drey Jameson finished 2022 in the big leagues with excellent results while Brandon Pfaadt, the Minor League strikeout leader, finished in Triple-A on a tear while pacing the Minor Leagues in strikeouts. Which ones break camp and selecting which ones earn an Opening Day activation could be a key to the Heads 2023 season.

Idaho Taters: Trust the Young Players?

The Taters have a stable of former top prospects who are looking to turn those future outlooks into present day points. They aggressively activated Spencer Torkelson, Jo Adell and Casey Mize in 2022 to disappointing results. They will now face decisions on Josh Jung, Nolan Gorman, Matt Manning, Matt Liberatore and potentially Brennan Davis making Spring Training an important one in the Taters organization.

Lake Merced Goutfish: Who Joins Cease and Kirby?

The Lake Merced Goutfish were in an all-out effort to lock down a Wild Card spot in 2022, landing Blake Snell (2/$10) and Chris Bassitt (2/$27) as just two of their many acquisitions last season. While the focus was on the run to the Playoffs, both pitchers pitched so well down the stretch that they are firmly in the club’s 2023 plans behind Dylan Cease and George Kirby in the Opening Day rotation. Additionally, potential activation Roansy Contreras looks set for a full-time rotation spot in Pittsburgh and could be a back-end option for GM Ryan Atkinson.

Las Vegas Aristocrats: Cap Space Strategy

The Aristocrats hold the most projected cap space at $197 with both catching spots and a strong trio of starting pitchers locked up. The 3-man Front Office the ‘Crats now employ are likely to focus on the offense which needed a late run to finish 11th in hitter scoring last season. While the Free Agent Class is the strongest in recent memory, there appears to be significant cap space across the league which might make an off-season trade an easier path to an initial offensive upgrade.

Lunatic Fringe: Pitching Patched Up?

The Fringe struggled to pair Pitcher of the Year Sandy Alcantara with competent rotation mates behind him, posting the second worst ERA in the RDBL at 4.00. GM Tony Guglielmi has patched up that issue with their deadline acquisition of Lance McCullers and the activations of Triston McKenzie and Reid Detmers. With Michael Wacha (2FA/$5) potentially in the mix as well, expect Guglielmi to use a good chunk of their projected $193 in cap space to find another elite arm to pair with this group.

Maltese Falcons: Roster Crunch

The Falcons might face the most difficult decisions this off-season as a deep crop of Keeper worthy players will force the Front Office to part with at least one solid contributor. The current race for two spots appears to be catcher Jonah Hiem (2FA/$5), outfielder Teoscar Hernandez (3/$10) and reliever Scott Barlow (2/$5) with the club likely to exhibit patience with Gavin Lux (2R/$3) who has yet to breakout in Los Angeles. The club will also keep a close eye on potential activation Triston Casas who showed flashes of star-power in Boston late in 2022.

Meinert Hops: Ready for Rookies?

The Hops are already locked into the activation of Hitting Prospect of the Year Michael Harris III, but will closely monitor the off-season activities of the Washington Nationals and New York Mets as they make their plans for CJ Abrams and Brett Baty. Being able to count on one or both would be a major help to the Hops’ salary cap situation with Shohei Ohtani a lock to return at $88. Expectations will be raised for Andrew Vaughn (3R/$5) and Luis Robert (3R/$5) who both enter their final year of control and look to help fill the void left by the departed Free Agent Mike Trout.

Mission Viejo Maulers: Rotation Help?

The Maulers are set to return many of the key pieces on an offense that ranked second in scoring in the 2022 RDBL Regular Season but will have to deal with significant turnover in the rotation with only Justin Verlander (3/$5) and Nathan Eovaldi (3/$1) currently projected to return. GM Chris Ferraro could wait until Draft Day to address the need, but expect him to explore the off-season market for at least a third starter.

Mt. Diablo Devils: Are Greene and Franco Ready for Steps Forward?

Wander Franco (2R/$3) and Riley Greene (Minors) have topped prospect lists in each of the last two seasons and have had enough big league at-bats to have the pressure turn up a bit for significant 2023 production. The Devils finished last season ranked 10th in offensive scoring with GM Jason Watson’s preference to spend a significant chunk of their salary cap space to address the league’s 13th ranked pitching staff.

St. Joseph Jokers: How does Steen Leverage Draft Picks?

The Jokers are fresh off 14th, 12th and 15th place finishes over the last three seasons after finishing in the cash for the first time in 2018. That has the pressure building on GM Rick Steen who is facing the league’s most interesting off-season. On one hand, Steen has done a strong job building up a Farm System that looks ready to activate as many as six players in Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Wright, MJ Melendez, Joey Bart, Trevor Larnach and JJ Bleday with Gabriel Moreno not far behind. They also hold the first overall pick in the 2023 Reserve Draft along with six of the top 29 and nine of the first 44 selections. Will Steen take a patient approach and continue to build from within or look to pair Trea Turner (3/$49) and other holdovers with more proven Keepers through the trade market by moving some of the crop of picks they currently hold.

Spokane Fightin’ Fish: Bieber over Cole?

The Fightin’ Fish enter an ideal off-season as they enter 2023 coming off five cash finishes in six seasons and thirteen viable Keepers or activations due $5 or less next season. With so much cap flexibility, the club will face the decision on who they deem to be their ace as they hold options on Gerrit Cole (3/$73) and Shane Bieber (2/$58) with Martin Perez (2FA/$5) and Drew Rasmussen (2D/$5) the other likely holdovers in the rotation.